I wanted to look back on Baseball America's top 10 list for the Blue Jays and see just how accurate they have been with the Jays top prospects in recent memory.
I will starting with, you guessed it, 2006.
The top 10:
Dustin McGowan, RHP (Best FB, Best Slider)
D-Mac pitched 27.1 innings in the majors, with poor results. He also didn't pitch that well in AAA while he has down there. His stock was falling. In 2007, he dominated AAA briefly, and was solid in 169.2 IP in the majors. He was again decent in 2008 before suffering an injury, which has put his career in jeopardy. BA hit the nail on this one, as McGowan has all the talent to be a number 1 starter, but injury problems have prevented it so far.
Ricky Romero, LHP
Being a 1st round draft pick the year before, this was kind of the default place to put him in a weak farm system. He pitched very well in A+ before struggling a bit in AA. 2007 was a repeat of 2006, same levels, similar results. 2008 continued his lack of success in AA, but got a promotion to AAA anyway and showed that he deserved it by pitching very well. In 2009, he earned an opening day rotation spot and with the expection of 3 Boston Red Sox games, has been tremendous. He is a top candidate for Rookie of the Year, and should be a rotation member for years to come.
David Purcey, LHP
Another 1st round pick, Purcey is a talented, but erractic lefty. He put up sub-par numbers in AA/AAA in 2006, and followed it up by being pretty bad in AA in 2007. 2008, he dominated AAA and then put up some poor numbers in the majors, with expection of a few starts against the Tampa Rays. 2009 has been a nightmare for Purcey, pitching terribly in the majors and pretty badly in AAA. His future is looking dimmer with each passing start.
Adam Lind, OF/1B (Best Hitter For Average)
My curre favourite Blue Jay, Lind did everything he could to prove himself as the future in 2006, putting up incredible numbers in AA and AAA before earning a september call-up, where he showed a sweet swing and put up really good numbers. 2007 was a very disappointing season, as he performed poorly and was sent to AAA, where he hit incredibly well. 2008 was supposed to be his year, but when he struggled, he was demoted. He hit very well in AAA, earning a call-up with the hiring of Cito. Lind went on the fiish the season hitting very well, leading to his incredible 2009. I always compared him to Shawn Green, and it is starting to look like a good comparison.
Josh Banks, RHP (Best Control)
In AAA in 2006/2007, Banks pitched poorly, although he didn't walk too many guys. He got a call-up in 2007 and pitched poorly. In 2008, he again pitched bad in AAA and was acquired by San Diego, where he pitched bad in AAA. He did pitch decently in 85.1 Major League innings in 2008. 2009 has been a similar story for Banks, getting lit up in the majors. He has pitched very well in the minors this year though.
Casey Janssen, RHP
2006 was Janssen's first MLB season. He pitched pretty unimpressively in AAA, and was nothing special in the majors. 2007 was a fantastic season for Janssen, pitching in 70 games out of the bullpen. He suffered an injury though, and missed the entire 2008 season. His comeback in 2009 has been interesting. He struggled as a starter, and was sent to the minors to work things out. He pitched at 4 different levels in the minors, starting and relieving. He is back in the majors now, coming out of the bullpen. I think he belongs there, and hope he can somehow recapture the success he found in 2007.
Brandon League, RHP
Earning the nickname "Mensa" for his cluelessness and downright ridiculousness, Brandon League is one the most talented and frustrated relief pitchers in the Major Leagues. Armed with a mid-90's sinking fastball and a nasty splitter, League can be lights out when he is on. Which is about a third of the time. In 42.2 MLB innings and in his minor league time in 2006, he was stellar. 2007, he pitched well in the minors, but poorly in the bigs. 2008 was anoth "on" year in the majors, and also pitched well in the minors. So far in 2009, all spent in the majors, he has been very erriatic. He seems to be a one bad year, one good year kind of pitcher. His inconsistancy will prevent him from ever being a shut down guy at the back of a good Major League bullpen.
Fransisco Rosario, RHP
Rosario was always a guy with great pure stuff. He just never seemed able to harnass it for extended periods of time. He pitched well as a starter/reliever in AAA in 2006, leading to his MLB debut, where he was inconsistant and pretty awfull. He went to the Phillies system in 2007, pitching poorly in the MLB and A ball. 2008 was bad, as he pithed only 2.2 IP in A ball. He hasn't been in afiliated ball since.
Curtis Thigpen, C (Best Strike-Zone Disc.)
Earning his "best strike-zone discipline" label, he had an impressive OBP in 2006 in AA/AAA, leading to his being labeled "catcher of the future." After starting very well in AAA, 2007 was the year of his MLB call-up, where he was poor. 2008 was a bad year, as he was dreadfull in the majors and terrible in AAA. He was shipped to Oakland prior to 2009, but hasn't played this year in MLB/AAA.
Vince Perkins, LHP
A Canadian, Perkins has bounced around a lot for a guy on a top 10 list. I guess it shows how shallow the Jays farm has been, although Marcum should've been in the top 10. Perkins didn't pitch in 2006, and was sent to Milwaukee. He pitched badly in 2007, leading to his banishment from afiliated ball. He pitched some inconsistant ball in the independants in 2008, but apparently it was enough to get a minor league deal with the Cubs. in 2009, he has been very good in AA/AAA. Still just 27 years old, Perkins still has a shot as a lefty out the bullpen.
Honerable Mentions:
Best Power Hitter: Chip Cannon
Cannon showed why he labeled as such by belting 27 HR in 2006 in AA. He somehow didn't get promoted in 2007, andstruggled in a repeat of AA. 2008 was his AAA season and his power vanished, taking away all the value he possessed. He signed on with the Rays organization, where he is a AA back-up, hitting terribly.
Faster Baserunner, Best Defensive OF, Best OF Arm: Miguel Negron
"Alex" Negron has bounced around alot in his minor league career, and the Jays gave up on the talented 23 year old mid season, as he ended the season in the Cubs organization, hitting well. 2007, he moved to the Mets organization, where he shat the AAA bed, but made some recovery in AA. He signed on with the White Sox and spent 2008 hitting very well in AA, and is playing pretty decent ball in AAA in 2009. He seems to be a terrible base stealer, as he has been caught 79 times, while only stealing 138 bases over his minor league career.
Best Athlete: Yuber Rodriguez
It seems that this honor is bestowed upon a random player who doesn't put up good numbers, but has a bunch of "tools." Well, Yuber fits that as his minor league numbers, aside from 2004 (which was amazing), are dreadfull. He seems to be decent base stealer, but his OBP is so bad that he doesn't get many chances. He left the Jays system in 2008 for the Reds and played awfull. Since no 2009 data is present, I will assume he killed himself. Sad story.
Best Curveball: Kyle Yates
After pitching well as a 23 year old in AA in 2006, he was mediocre in his 2007 repeat of AA. 2008 was a bad year, as he pitched terribly, and was released. He pitched allright in Indy ball. 2009 has a blank slate, but he is still just 26. He my turn up in Indy ball yet.
Best Changeup: Shaun Marcum
2006 was a back and forth year for Marcum, who started and relieved in the MLB, to mediocre results. He also started and relieved in AAA to great results. 2007 was a good year as he established himself as a future member of the rotation with good numbers as a starter in the Majors. 2008 was validation of his success in 2007, as he was excellent before getting hurt. He recovered pretty quickly from Tommy John and has pitched 5 rehab starts and they have all been good. He is on track to be back in the MLB rotation for 2010.
Best Defensive Catcher: Erik Kratz
His defense may have been what got him noticed, but without some offense you never move up the ladder. Kratz never hit above .250 from 2006-2008 at any level for the Jays. In 2009, Kratz found AAA in the Pirates system to his liking and has put up some good numbers (I believe he was a AAA all-star as well). If his defense is still highly regarded, he could see a future as a MLB back-up.
Best Defensive IF, Best IF Arm: Manuel Mayorson
2006 and 2007 were spent in AA, where he was average, and showed flashes of speed, but poor base-running instincts. He moved the Marlins organization in 2008, where he tore up AA and played well in AAA. He started off 2009 poorly in AAA and has appeared to moved back the Jays organization. He is hitting poorly in a small AA sample size.
Well, that was interesting. It took a long time, and I doubt I will end up doing 2007's top prospects, as it mostly full of guys still working their way up with poor results. And that would be depressing as fuck.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Barry Zito is earning every penny of his $127M
I was guided to this by someone in the DJF comment section, I believe.
Only 2 words come to mind when I watch this, over and over again: FUCKING AWESOME
What to do in September...
When the rosters expand on September 1, the Jays have some questions to be answered.
Who will get the call?
Will roster moves be made to accomidate deserving players?
Does JP Arencibia deserve a call-up?
These questions have complex answers. Answers that I do not have.
But, what I do have is speculation. And incredible baseball sense, in my humble opinion.
So, from my heart to this perverted blog, here are my ideas.
1. Before September 1, release Kevin Millar when Travis Snider is called up. Start Snider every day in RF, while Lind plays every day in LF. This sets up their best possible future OF by putting their pieces into place.
2. Transfer McGowan and Litsch to the 60-day DL to free up 2 roster spots on the 40-man.
3. Release Michael Barrett. Combined with Millar and the 2 pitchers, this frees up 4 spots total.
4. Add Kyle Phillips to the 40-man. Call him up as the 3rd catcher. Play him.
5. Call up Arencibia. He may not deserve it, but he is the catcher of the future. That future could be next season if he shows power. Play him 3-4 times a week, with Phillips getting a start a week as well. Chavez and Barajas can be there to mentor and to play occasionally.
6. Add Kevin Howard to the 40-man. Call him up. Let him play some 3B about half the time. See what you've got.
7. Add Angel Sanchez to the 40-man. Call him up. Give him some playing time. He could be the utility guy next season.
8. Add Brian Dopirak to the 40-man. Call him up. He can play against lefties for Overbay and play some DH as well. He is an important part of the future.
9. Call up a bunch of pitchers on the 40-man allready. Accardo, Hayhurst, Mills, Murphy, Purcey, Davis Romero, and Wolfe have all seen Major League time. Re-call them.
10. Shut down some of the starters. Rzep and Cecil should be shut down.
11. Place John McDonald and Rod Barajas on waivers. If someone claims them, say goodbye. If they get through, trade them. Johnny would be great off the bench for an NL team and Rod could be a good back-up for a play-off team. The Jays need the roster space to see what kind of players they have.
12. Add Buck Coates to the 40-man. He deserves to be on this team.
So, with my suggestions, the roster would look like this:
Catcher: Arencibia, Phillips, Chavez
1B: Overbay, Dopirak, Ruiz
2B: Hill
3B: Howard, Encarnacion
SS: Scutaro
IF: Sanchez
LF: Lind
CF: Wells
RF: Snider
OF: Coates
UTL: Inglett, Bautista
That may seem like a lot of guys to have on the team. It is a lot, but there is playing time.
VS RHP:
Scutaro (SS)
Hill (2B)
Lind (LF)
Overbay (1B)
Ruiz/Dopirak (DH)
Snider (RF)
Wells/Coates (CF)
Arencibia/Phillips (C)
Howard/Inglett (3B)
VS LHP:
Scutaro (SS)
Hill (2B)
Lind (LF)
Ruiz (DH)
Wells (CF)
Dopirak (1B)
Encarnacion/Bautista (3B)
Snider (RF)
Arencibia/Chavez (C)
The pitching would look something like this:
Starters:
Halladay, Romero, Richmond, Purcey, Mills, Tallet. Going with a 6-man rotation would save the arms of Halladay and Romero a little bit. There is no need to run Doc into the ground.
Relievers:
Accardo, Frasor, League, Carlson, Murphy, Camp, Hayhurst, Janssen, Roenicke, D. Romero, Wolfe. Having so many bullpen arms would allow everyone to remain fresh. There is enough talent here that pitching any of these guys would not be a disastor, as Murphy and Hayhurst showed flashed of excellent ability early in the season.
So, there you have it. My suggestions as to what the Jays should do.
I will probably post at least 3 "What to do for 2010" features before the end of the season as well. I'm weird like that.
Who will get the call?
Will roster moves be made to accomidate deserving players?
Does JP Arencibia deserve a call-up?
These questions have complex answers. Answers that I do not have.
But, what I do have is speculation. And incredible baseball sense, in my humble opinion.
So, from my heart to this perverted blog, here are my ideas.
1. Before September 1, release Kevin Millar when Travis Snider is called up. Start Snider every day in RF, while Lind plays every day in LF. This sets up their best possible future OF by putting their pieces into place.
2. Transfer McGowan and Litsch to the 60-day DL to free up 2 roster spots on the 40-man.
3. Release Michael Barrett. Combined with Millar and the 2 pitchers, this frees up 4 spots total.
4. Add Kyle Phillips to the 40-man. Call him up as the 3rd catcher. Play him.
5. Call up Arencibia. He may not deserve it, but he is the catcher of the future. That future could be next season if he shows power. Play him 3-4 times a week, with Phillips getting a start a week as well. Chavez and Barajas can be there to mentor and to play occasionally.
6. Add Kevin Howard to the 40-man. Call him up. Let him play some 3B about half the time. See what you've got.
7. Add Angel Sanchez to the 40-man. Call him up. Give him some playing time. He could be the utility guy next season.
8. Add Brian Dopirak to the 40-man. Call him up. He can play against lefties for Overbay and play some DH as well. He is an important part of the future.
9. Call up a bunch of pitchers on the 40-man allready. Accardo, Hayhurst, Mills, Murphy, Purcey, Davis Romero, and Wolfe have all seen Major League time. Re-call them.
10. Shut down some of the starters. Rzep and Cecil should be shut down.
11. Place John McDonald and Rod Barajas on waivers. If someone claims them, say goodbye. If they get through, trade them. Johnny would be great off the bench for an NL team and Rod could be a good back-up for a play-off team. The Jays need the roster space to see what kind of players they have.
12. Add Buck Coates to the 40-man. He deserves to be on this team.
So, with my suggestions, the roster would look like this:
Catcher: Arencibia, Phillips, Chavez
1B: Overbay, Dopirak, Ruiz
2B: Hill
3B: Howard, Encarnacion
SS: Scutaro
IF: Sanchez
LF: Lind
CF: Wells
RF: Snider
OF: Coates
UTL: Inglett, Bautista
That may seem like a lot of guys to have on the team. It is a lot, but there is playing time.
VS RHP:
Scutaro (SS)
Hill (2B)
Lind (LF)
Overbay (1B)
Ruiz/Dopirak (DH)
Snider (RF)
Wells/Coates (CF)
Arencibia/Phillips (C)
Howard/Inglett (3B)
VS LHP:
Scutaro (SS)
Hill (2B)
Lind (LF)
Ruiz (DH)
Wells (CF)
Dopirak (1B)
Encarnacion/Bautista (3B)
Snider (RF)
Arencibia/Chavez (C)
The pitching would look something like this:
Starters:
Halladay, Romero, Richmond, Purcey, Mills, Tallet. Going with a 6-man rotation would save the arms of Halladay and Romero a little bit. There is no need to run Doc into the ground.
Relievers:
Accardo, Frasor, League, Carlson, Murphy, Camp, Hayhurst, Janssen, Roenicke, D. Romero, Wolfe. Having so many bullpen arms would allow everyone to remain fresh. There is enough talent here that pitching any of these guys would not be a disastor, as Murphy and Hayhurst showed flashed of excellent ability early in the season.
So, there you have it. My suggestions as to what the Jays should do.
I will probably post at least 3 "What to do for 2010" features before the end of the season as well. I'm weird like that.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
And...
It has been over a week since I have posted, yet again.
I have been having trouble finding the motivation to write, while not actually watching many Jays games on TV.
Combine that with my recent injury due to retardation, and it was hard to get motivated at all to post something.
So, now that I am doped up on oxycodine, I will throw some random baseball insights out there from the past week or so.
I have been having trouble finding the motivation to write, while not actually watching many Jays games on TV.
Combine that with my recent injury due to retardation, and it was hard to get motivated at all to post something.
So, now that I am doped up on oxycodine, I will throw some random baseball insights out there from the past week or so.
- The Jays signed 1st rounder Chad Jenkins, leaving their other top picks unsigned with less than a week to go. All 3 Jakes remain unsigned as well as James Paxton. Hurry the fuck up.
- John Smoltz was DFA'd and is now a free agent. He could make a solid bullpen acquisition for a National League team down the stretch.
- Ex-Jay Justin Speier was released this week, and he could really help a bullpen the rest of the way as well. Get on this Milwaukee.
- Speaking of the Brewers, they DFA'd Bill Hall and optioned JJ Hardy this week. The Hall move was a long time coming, as he has been kinda shitty the last couple years. Hardy was a surprise, but it is perfect, as it will allow Milwaukee to keep JJ from becoming a free agent for another season. Smart.
The biggest news since the trade deadline was that of the decision to let Alex Rios get claimed off waivers by the White Sox. The Jays get nothing but salary relief for their talented, but lazy, CF playing RF. The White Sox got a good player on a decent contract and the Jays get a chance to sign a guy in the off-season who fits into the offense better.
My thinking is that this is a really smart move by both teams. For the Jays, it will allow them to play Adam Lind in LF and Travis Snider in RF. Both are not bad on defense and are too young to be full-time DH guys. I still think Adam Lind should learn 1B for when Overbay departs as a free agent after 2010. It allows the Jays to go out and sign a power hitter to DH or to allow Randy Ruiz to do the job if he continues to show power at the major league level.
I would love to see the Jays sign Chone Figgins in the offseason to play 3B and lead off. He would immediately change the look of the team in a very good way.
The two other holes to fill will be SS and catcher. For SS, I purpose either trading for a good player such as JJ Hardy or signing a Bobby Crosby or Khalil Greene type and batting them 9th. THey both have some power and play decent defense. They would be decent number 9 hitters and would be cheaper than re-signing Scutaro.
As for catcher, that is really a crap shoot. Barajas is a free agent as are 2009 back-ups Raul Chavez and Mike Barrett. I would love to re-sign Chavez to back up again in 2010. Whoever catches will most likely be the number 8 hitter, so it really isn't that big of a deal if they are not great hitters. BUT, they should at least be able to OBP over .300, which Barajas seems incapable of. I would not mind signing Jason Varitek for a year while Arencibia learns to be more patient. Varitek has some power, so he is always dangerous, and is a great receiver. Gregg Zaun would be welcome back as well, as he is a high OBP guy with some pop.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
So...
I haven't posted in about a week, as I've been disecting the trade deadline and watching the Jays shit the bed.
I am going to give my thoughts a place to sit for all of time, so that I can look back at them at be amazed at how silly I was.
So, starting with the most recent trade (Peavy to Chi Town) and working backwards with the biggest trades, here I go. (Fuck the small trades. No one cares that the Marlins picked up Nick Johnson or that Nick Johnson once killed a woman, then raped her.)
The White Sox acquired SP Jake Peavy from the Padres for P Clayton Richard, P Aaron Poreda, P Adam Russell, and P Dexter Carter
So, the Pads got the #2 prospect (Poreda, according to Baseball America and John Sickels), and the #3 (Richard, according to BA and #5 according to JS). They also got Russell, a RH reliever with good numbers in AAA this season, who can come right into San Diego's bullpen. Dexter Carter is the furthest away from the Majors, but has impressive numbers in A ball as a starter. Overall, it is a pretty impressive haul for an injured player with a lot of money coming to him. San Diego did a great job to get 4 young arms at various stages for their ace. The White Sox also got an established ace without giving up Gordan Beckham, so good job on that end.
The Reds acquired 3B Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for 3B Edwin Encarnacion, P Josh Roenicke, and P Zach Stewart
I love this trade as a Jays fan. Encarnacion has the power that we need from a corner guy, while the arms are impressive. Roenicke (who was rated as having the best fastball in the Reds' system by BA) has closer stuff, and could move into that role very soon. Stewart is a very young arm who has rocketed through the minors and is in AAA a year after being drafted. He could either be a stud reliever or a solid starter at peak. Losing Rolen hurts, but it's not that bad when you get the quality the Jays got. John Sickels ranked Roenicke and Stewart the 6th and 7th prospects coming into the season.
The Red Sox acquired C Victor Martinez from the Indians for P Nick Hagadone, P Justin Masterson, and P Bryan Price
I love this deal for both sides. The Red Sox get a catcher for next year, while improving their offense this year at 1B, moving Youkilis to 3B. The Indians got Hagadone, ranked #8 by JS and #3 by BA (who named his slider best in the system) and Price, ranked #12 by JS. Masterson is the key here. He spent most of last season in the Sox bullpen and was very effective. He still has the ability to be a front line starter as well, so Cleveland did a great job.
The Phillies azquired P Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco from the Indians for P Carlos Carrasco, IF Jason Donald, C Lou Marson, and P Jason Knapp
I think this is a good deal for both sides as well. Philly didn't sell the farm, keeping their top 3 prospects (Drabek, Taylor, and Brown in no particular order) and their young rotation fixture (Happ). Still, Philly gave up some very good prospects. Donald is a SS who could move to 2B in Cleveland who ranked the #4 prospect by JS and BA. Marson is a good defensive catcher who was ranked #3 by BA (who called him the best defensive catcher in the system) and #10 by JS. Carrasco is a starter who John Sickels ranked the #1 prospect pre-season, while BA named him #2 (with the best change-up in the system). Knapp, who some are calling the key to the deal, was rated #10 by BA and #8 by JS. Knapp is really young, but is getting very high praise.
So, those are the trades I have decided to go with. Word.
I am going to give my thoughts a place to sit for all of time, so that I can look back at them at be amazed at how silly I was.
So, starting with the most recent trade (Peavy to Chi Town) and working backwards with the biggest trades, here I go. (Fuck the small trades. No one cares that the Marlins picked up Nick Johnson or that Nick Johnson once killed a woman, then raped her.)
The White Sox acquired SP Jake Peavy from the Padres for P Clayton Richard, P Aaron Poreda, P Adam Russell, and P Dexter Carter
So, the Pads got the #2 prospect (Poreda, according to Baseball America and John Sickels), and the #3 (Richard, according to BA and #5 according to JS). They also got Russell, a RH reliever with good numbers in AAA this season, who can come right into San Diego's bullpen. Dexter Carter is the furthest away from the Majors, but has impressive numbers in A ball as a starter. Overall, it is a pretty impressive haul for an injured player with a lot of money coming to him. San Diego did a great job to get 4 young arms at various stages for their ace. The White Sox also got an established ace without giving up Gordan Beckham, so good job on that end.
The Reds acquired 3B Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for 3B Edwin Encarnacion, P Josh Roenicke, and P Zach Stewart
I love this trade as a Jays fan. Encarnacion has the power that we need from a corner guy, while the arms are impressive. Roenicke (who was rated as having the best fastball in the Reds' system by BA) has closer stuff, and could move into that role very soon. Stewart is a very young arm who has rocketed through the minors and is in AAA a year after being drafted. He could either be a stud reliever or a solid starter at peak. Losing Rolen hurts, but it's not that bad when you get the quality the Jays got. John Sickels ranked Roenicke and Stewart the 6th and 7th prospects coming into the season.
The Red Sox acquired C Victor Martinez from the Indians for P Nick Hagadone, P Justin Masterson, and P Bryan Price
I love this deal for both sides. The Red Sox get a catcher for next year, while improving their offense this year at 1B, moving Youkilis to 3B. The Indians got Hagadone, ranked #8 by JS and #3 by BA (who named his slider best in the system) and Price, ranked #12 by JS. Masterson is the key here. He spent most of last season in the Sox bullpen and was very effective. He still has the ability to be a front line starter as well, so Cleveland did a great job.
The Phillies azquired P Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco from the Indians for P Carlos Carrasco, IF Jason Donald, C Lou Marson, and P Jason Knapp
I think this is a good deal for both sides as well. Philly didn't sell the farm, keeping their top 3 prospects (Drabek, Taylor, and Brown in no particular order) and their young rotation fixture (Happ). Still, Philly gave up some very good prospects. Donald is a SS who could move to 2B in Cleveland who ranked the #4 prospect by JS and BA. Marson is a good defensive catcher who was ranked #3 by BA (who called him the best defensive catcher in the system) and #10 by JS. Carrasco is a starter who John Sickels ranked the #1 prospect pre-season, while BA named him #2 (with the best change-up in the system). Knapp, who some are calling the key to the deal, was rated #10 by BA and #8 by JS. Knapp is really young, but is getting very high praise.
So, those are the trades I have decided to go with. Word.
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