Next up in my little series are the Yanks.
As noted in my Orioles forecast, I don't see the Yanks signing Teixeira or Burnett. I also don't think they will sign CC Sabathia, who I think will end up as an Angel.
So, I'll run down their depth, then I will throw some free agent predictions & trade possibilities.
Catcher
Jorge Posada is locked in behind the plate if he is healthy, which is unlikely. They need, and have, a solid back-up in Jose Molina. I also think they need another catcher, possibally carrying 3 on the roster.
1B
Nick Swisher was recently acquired, and that looks good to me. Swish is going to need to be a little tamer with his personality and especially his facial hair, but he could become a beast with the short right field porch. Juan Miranda and Shelley Duncan are the depth here.
2B
Robinson cano should bounce back and break-out into a monster season. He should finally get his shot in the middle of the order.
3B
Gay-Rod is stuck here for the next decade. He is one of the best players in baseball, but a filthy cock sucker.
SS
Derek Jeter is no loger an acceptable SS, but there is no way he moves to another position just yet. He is still one of the best hitters for his position, so his defensive short comings are sometimes overlooked.
OF/DH
Johnny Damon & Hideki Matsui will need to splitt LF/DH, as both are injury cases. Depth is important here. Xavier Nady will probably play RF, which is the best possibilty here. Brett Gardner & Melky Cabrera will both see time here unless one can run away with it or if one blows it. If extremely neccessary, Swisher or Nady could play CF.
Starters
Chien-Ming Wang is an under-rated starter, which is rare for a Yankee pitcher. Phil Hughes is still a promising young pitcher. Ian Kennedy is quickly losig prospect status as he gets slammed all over the place by those doubting his ability. Alfredo Aceves came on strong at the end of last season. Alan Horne could push his way onto the staff if pitchers aren't added. Kei Igawa is still on the roster. Dan Giese made some solid starts last season.
Relievers
Mariano Rivera is still one the best in the game at shutting the door. Joba Chamberlain is must more suited to relieving, as his arm problems the end of last season suggest. Damaso Marte is a much needed lefty in the pen. There are a lot of good young arms as well; Brian Bruney, Jon Albaladejo, Chris Britton, Phil Coke, Edwar Ramirez, David Robertson, Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox, Mark Melancon.
Potential Free Agent Acquisitions
The Yankees NEED to add at least 2 starters. Andy Pettitte will probably be one them, but he is now a possibilty for the Dodgers. I also see them signing Derek Lowe. I could see them add a 3rd starter a well, either surprise Oliver Perez or 1 of 2 Japanese pitchers Kenshin Kawakami or Koji Uehara.
Andy Pettitte. SP 2 years/$15M per season
Derek Lowe. SP 3 years/$16M per season
Kawakami/Uehara. SP 4 years/$10M per season
Will Ohman. RP 3 years/$4M per season
I do not see any more trades being made by the Yankees.
Potential Roster Construction
C: Jorge Posada
1B: Nick Swisher
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Alex Rodriguez
SS: Derek Jeter
LF: Johnny Damon
CF: Melky Cabrera
RF: Xavier Nady
DH: Hideki Matsui
Bench:
C: Jose Molina
IF: Cody Ransom
OF: Brett Gardner
1B: Shelley Duncan
OF: Justin Christian
(The Yankees don't really seem to care about their bench, but any free agents are possibilties here as back-ups)
Rotation
1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Derek Lowe
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Kawakami/Uehara
5. Phil Hughes
Bullpen
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Set-Up: Joba Chamberlain
Lefties: Damaso Marte & Will Ohman
Mid/Long: Edwar Ramirez & Brian Bruney
The payroll as of this moment in time is about $150M. Last season, they had a payroll of over $200M. I see them coming in right below $200M, which this roster brings them around. $195M is about what this 40-man roster would cost.
Next Up: Boston.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
Offseason Forecaster: Tampa Bay Rays
I continue my AL East offseason pre-show with the Rays, after giving some ideas for the O's front office to deal with.
Let's just hope that no-one actually reads this that is important then.
Ok, So onto the show.
Last season, Tampa had a $45 M payroll. They already have almost $60 M tied up in next years team, with only 1 or 2 not-good contracts in Troy Percival & Chad Bradford.
Their money is well-spent. None of it wasted on injury-cases or really over-paid veterans. That is a compliment to their front office.
Catcher
To start, their catching situation is solid, with Dioner Navarro a rising star behind the plate. Shawn Riggans and John Jaso should battle for the back-up job. No need for any outside player at this spot.
1B
First base is set for years with Carlos Pena, who was finally given a chance to be a regular after a few seasons of toiling around baseball after displaying serious skills with Oakland/Detroit. No need to look outside the organization for any help here.
2B
Akinori Iwamura has looked like a really good signing by Tampa since his importation 2 seasons ago. Coming over as a 3B, last season was his first as a 2B, and he improved the team by playing well on both sides last year. He is a lock to be either the lead-off hitter or number 2 hitter next season.
3B
Evan Longoria broke-out last year. He burst through AAA like a monster cock through a hyman and exploded all over the league like a Peter North money shot. This kid is a star, with less than a full season under his belt.
SS
Jason Bartlett came over in the Young-Garza swap last off-season as kind of a throw in it appeared. He was named by some (albeit, retards) as the team MVP last season. He wasn't, but he is still a very valuable player on this team.
OF
B.J. Upton broke out in the post-season, showing impressive power. Carl Crawford, when healthy (which is getting to be a broken record almost), is the teams best player. RF is wide open. Internal candidates include Jonny Gomes & Gabe Gross. They could form a solid platoon, or an outside play could be acquired. A righty hitter would be the smart way to go.
DH
Wide open. Jonny Gomes could DH. Dan Johnson could DH. I would like to see them get a serious bat to put here. The way I see it, 1 hitter will be added, either as a DH or RF.
SP
Their starting is set for next season without paying big money for it. Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnenstine, and Edwin Jackson (last years main starting 5) will all be back. Jackson could be dealt for a bat, meaing phenom David Price would be starting next season. Other depth guys include Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Mitch Talbot, and Jae-Kuk Ryu.
Bullpen
This is where their money is poorly spent. Their best relievers are Grant Balfour & JP Howell. Chad Bradford will be theirs all season, and Troy Percival will at least start the season healthy. Dan Wheeler is solid. Other options include Juan Salas, Chad Orvella and Jason Hammel. They will need to add a couple arms for mid-relief depth.
Free Agent Signings I See As Likely
Pat Burrell. DH 3 years/$12M per season.
Trades I see as Likely
Edwin Jackson to Cardinals for Rick Ankiel/Ryan Ludwick.
If you non-tender Jonny Gomes (who would then be a bargain bin candidate for whoever signs him), that gives the Rays about a $10 Million spike in payroll up to about $70 Million. With the season that TB just had, that could happen.
Roster Construction
C: Dioner Navarro
1B: Carlos Pena
2B: Aki Iwamura
3B: Evan Lorgoria
SS: Jason Bartlett
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: BJ Upton
RF: Ankiel/Ludwick
DH: Pat Burrell
Bench:
C: Riggans/Jaso
UTL: Ben Zobrist
OF: Gabe Gross
OF: Fernando Perez
IF: Willy Aybar
SP:
1. Kazmir, 2. Garza, 3. Shields, 4. Price, 5. Sonnanstine
Pen:
Closer: Percival
Set-Up: Balfour/Howell
Mid: Bradfor/Wheeler
Last Man Candidates: Salas, Hammel, Orvella, Niemann
That would be a scary team if they add at least 1 bat to DH/RF. They will contend for years unless payroll is restriced to about $50 M. If that is the case, all bets are off and this team gets dismantled with no additions.
Next up, is Toronto/Boston/New York whenever John Sickels over at MinorLeagueBall gets their top 20s done.
Let's just hope that no-one actually reads this that is important then.
Ok, So onto the show.
Last season, Tampa had a $45 M payroll. They already have almost $60 M tied up in next years team, with only 1 or 2 not-good contracts in Troy Percival & Chad Bradford.
Their money is well-spent. None of it wasted on injury-cases or really over-paid veterans. That is a compliment to their front office.
Catcher
To start, their catching situation is solid, with Dioner Navarro a rising star behind the plate. Shawn Riggans and John Jaso should battle for the back-up job. No need for any outside player at this spot.
1B
First base is set for years with Carlos Pena, who was finally given a chance to be a regular after a few seasons of toiling around baseball after displaying serious skills with Oakland/Detroit. No need to look outside the organization for any help here.
2B
Akinori Iwamura has looked like a really good signing by Tampa since his importation 2 seasons ago. Coming over as a 3B, last season was his first as a 2B, and he improved the team by playing well on both sides last year. He is a lock to be either the lead-off hitter or number 2 hitter next season.
3B
Evan Longoria broke-out last year. He burst through AAA like a monster cock through a hyman and exploded all over the league like a Peter North money shot. This kid is a star, with less than a full season under his belt.
SS
Jason Bartlett came over in the Young-Garza swap last off-season as kind of a throw in it appeared. He was named by some (albeit, retards) as the team MVP last season. He wasn't, but he is still a very valuable player on this team.
OF
B.J. Upton broke out in the post-season, showing impressive power. Carl Crawford, when healthy (which is getting to be a broken record almost), is the teams best player. RF is wide open. Internal candidates include Jonny Gomes & Gabe Gross. They could form a solid platoon, or an outside play could be acquired. A righty hitter would be the smart way to go.
DH
Wide open. Jonny Gomes could DH. Dan Johnson could DH. I would like to see them get a serious bat to put here. The way I see it, 1 hitter will be added, either as a DH or RF.
SP
Their starting is set for next season without paying big money for it. Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnenstine, and Edwin Jackson (last years main starting 5) will all be back. Jackson could be dealt for a bat, meaing phenom David Price would be starting next season. Other depth guys include Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Mitch Talbot, and Jae-Kuk Ryu.
Bullpen
This is where their money is poorly spent. Their best relievers are Grant Balfour & JP Howell. Chad Bradford will be theirs all season, and Troy Percival will at least start the season healthy. Dan Wheeler is solid. Other options include Juan Salas, Chad Orvella and Jason Hammel. They will need to add a couple arms for mid-relief depth.
Free Agent Signings I See As Likely
Pat Burrell. DH 3 years/$12M per season.
Trades I see as Likely
Edwin Jackson to Cardinals for Rick Ankiel/Ryan Ludwick.
If you non-tender Jonny Gomes (who would then be a bargain bin candidate for whoever signs him), that gives the Rays about a $10 Million spike in payroll up to about $70 Million. With the season that TB just had, that could happen.
Roster Construction
C: Dioner Navarro
1B: Carlos Pena
2B: Aki Iwamura
3B: Evan Lorgoria
SS: Jason Bartlett
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: BJ Upton
RF: Ankiel/Ludwick
DH: Pat Burrell
Bench:
C: Riggans/Jaso
UTL: Ben Zobrist
OF: Gabe Gross
OF: Fernando Perez
IF: Willy Aybar
SP:
1. Kazmir, 2. Garza, 3. Shields, 4. Price, 5. Sonnanstine
Pen:
Closer: Percival
Set-Up: Balfour/Howell
Mid: Bradfor/Wheeler
Last Man Candidates: Salas, Hammel, Orvella, Niemann
That would be a scary team if they add at least 1 bat to DH/RF. They will contend for years unless payroll is restriced to about $50 M. If that is the case, all bets are off and this team gets dismantled with no additions.
Next up, is Toronto/Boston/New York whenever John Sickels over at MinorLeagueBall gets their top 20s done.
Offseason Forecaster: The Bargain Bin
Every year, some team signs a player and there is a response of: "Who Gives A Fuck?"
Well, every year, some of those players go on to have seasons that are very good.
Two seasons ago, Carlos Pena was one of those guys, who just needed to given a solid chance.
Now, I believe the player is most likely going to be a guy who is non-tendered, underapreciated by his current team. David Ortiz was one of these guys a few years back. Maybe you've heard of him.
This year, I see a few guys already on the market who I think could be huge for the right team.
Eric Hinske
"Pinske" is a personal favourite of mine, as I has hoping he could be my favourite Jay when Delgado left. His Toronto career wasn't what it could've been. Still, Hinske was a bargain for Tampa last year, and will be again for a smart team in need of a quality player.
Hinske is a great fit for a small market team in need of some power from the corners. He plays a solid 1B, an adequate 3B, and a mediocre LF/RF. Some teams that SHOULD be interested are: Cincinatti (as an OF), Pittsburgh (as an OF), Milwaukee (as a 3B), San Fransisco (as a 3B), San Diego (as an OF), Texas (as a 3B), Cleveland (as a 3B), Chicago Cubs (as an OF), and Baltimore (as a 1B).
Hinske can realistically put up 25 homers if given 500 AB, and would probably drive in about 80 runs, hitting about .260-.275.
Russell Branyan
Branyan is a player who has always mashed HR at a great rate. Over his career, he has never been given a real shot a starting job with any team. Cleveland gave him 300 AB once, and Branyan gave them 20 HR. Cincinnati gave him 200 AB after a trade the year mid-season, and he gave them 16 HR. He just hits HR. The problem may be that too much else is expected. But I ask: what the fuck is wrong with just hitting HR? Adam Dunn is top-flight free agent with an identical skill-set to Branyan. Dunn just walks more, which is the difference between $15 Million as season and a spring training invite.
Teams in the market for a power hitting 1B/3B/Corner OF should take a look. The same teams interested in Hinske should be interested in Branyan, as he could hit 30 HR if given 500 AB. He is worth a look to any AL team in a DH as well (cough Toronto cough).
These 2 players could both be excellent finds a team on a budget, and could each benefit from a REAL chance to play.
Well, every year, some of those players go on to have seasons that are very good.
Two seasons ago, Carlos Pena was one of those guys, who just needed to given a solid chance.
Now, I believe the player is most likely going to be a guy who is non-tendered, underapreciated by his current team. David Ortiz was one of these guys a few years back. Maybe you've heard of him.
This year, I see a few guys already on the market who I think could be huge for the right team.
Eric Hinske
"Pinske" is a personal favourite of mine, as I has hoping he could be my favourite Jay when Delgado left. His Toronto career wasn't what it could've been. Still, Hinske was a bargain for Tampa last year, and will be again for a smart team in need of a quality player.
Hinske is a great fit for a small market team in need of some power from the corners. He plays a solid 1B, an adequate 3B, and a mediocre LF/RF. Some teams that SHOULD be interested are: Cincinatti (as an OF), Pittsburgh (as an OF), Milwaukee (as a 3B), San Fransisco (as a 3B), San Diego (as an OF), Texas (as a 3B), Cleveland (as a 3B), Chicago Cubs (as an OF), and Baltimore (as a 1B).
Hinske can realistically put up 25 homers if given 500 AB, and would probably drive in about 80 runs, hitting about .260-.275.
Russell Branyan
Branyan is a player who has always mashed HR at a great rate. Over his career, he has never been given a real shot a starting job with any team. Cleveland gave him 300 AB once, and Branyan gave them 20 HR. Cincinnati gave him 200 AB after a trade the year mid-season, and he gave them 16 HR. He just hits HR. The problem may be that too much else is expected. But I ask: what the fuck is wrong with just hitting HR? Adam Dunn is top-flight free agent with an identical skill-set to Branyan. Dunn just walks more, which is the difference between $15 Million as season and a spring training invite.
Teams in the market for a power hitting 1B/3B/Corner OF should take a look. The same teams interested in Hinske should be interested in Branyan, as he could hit 30 HR if given 500 AB. He is worth a look to any AL team in a DH as well (cough Toronto cough).
These 2 players could both be excellent finds a team on a budget, and could each benefit from a REAL chance to play.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Offseason Forecaster: Baltimore Orioles
I am gonna have another go at some off-season planning due to some boredom.
The top prospect list are coming together from both Baseball America & Minor League Ball, so I'm going to start close to my Blue Jays and rock the Baltimore Orioles off-season forecast.
To start off, 42 players who could potentially make up their roster next season cost about $70 Million. Since last season's payroll was about $70 Million, one could guess that unless their is a drastic raise in payroll, the Orioles are fucked.
Their big off-season targets seem to be 2 Maryland-born free-agents, Mark Teixeira & A.J. Burnett, and $0 in their potential budget is huge mushroom-tattoo on their cheek.
But, the Orioles have been known to spend money, as their 2007 payroll was about $95 Million. Using that number, it gives them about $25 Million to jiggle around.
Their current roster formation is one that is a cluster-fuck of over-paid, under-talented old bastards.
I don't think Burnett or Teixeira will take "hometown discounts" to play on a shitty team, so it's gonna have to be money that brings them home. Burnett will need at least $15 Million over at least 5 years to play in Baltimore. And I assume Teixeira will take a $20 Million annual fee over 8 years. Just to acquire both guys, Baltimore would need to cut about $10 Million in salary.
Let's start at Catcher for this "team."
Ramon Hernandez sucks. How he turned a couple decent seasons into the contract he currently has is fucking outstanding. I need to meet his agent. Good news, Matt Weiters is going to be a stud. And he might be ready right now. So dump Hernandez. I'm sure they could pawn him on the Mets for a reliever, in a salary dump. Scott Shoendouche or Pedro Feliciano would be sufficient in my opinion. Hernandez makes $8 Million, the 2 pitchers each make about $3 Million. Ex-Jay Guillermo Quiroz is a capable back-up.
The First Base situation is pretty sticky:
If Teix is signed, everything is peachy. If not, look out. I guess Aubrey Huff could here, but his best position is DH. Scott Moore is an offensive minor league player, who would be an option in only the most extreme circumstances. Bottom line, they need Teix.
At least 2nd base is set, with Brian Roberts. Although their were rumblings last off-season, nothing came to fruition. Brian Roberts is an Oriole, and it's a shame, because he could bring in an excellent bounty, and 2nd base is an easy position to get league average stats from for cheap. I would trade him off for a young pitcher to anyone who will pay 100% of his money. I'd look for a guy with no more than 1.5 years of service time who is a safe bet to log solid innings. If the Orioles could pull a Marlins and unload Hernandez with him to the Mets, or another team wanting Roberts, the same way the Marlins pawned Lowell off with Beckett, it would be brilliant GMing.
3rd base is set with Melvin Mora mostly due to his massive contract. He put up a solid season, so he may have trade value if you need to look here to move money. There are no in-house options, unless you want a platoon of Scott Moore & Mike Contanzo. Which no-one does. Outside help would need to be acquired to fill this spot in the event of a More deal.
Short Stop is a black hole for Baltimore. They signed Donnie Murphy to add to a list that includes Freddy Bynum, Brandon Fahey, and Luiz Hernandez as candidates for playing time in AAA. Baltimore needs to add a short stop. I think it should priority A over Teixeira & Burnett. A trade for Jack Wilson would be smart, and a trade for Khalil Greene would be brilliant. Problem is, the Orioles don't have good arms to deal.
In the outfield, things are pretty set. Adam Jones is gonna be a good player for a long time and Nick Markakis is already a very good player. Luke Scott is the weak link in the OF, but he is a solid player as well. Scott could probably play 1B is they can't get Teix, with OF help easier to find than 1B production. Luis Montanez proved he deserves a shot at a 4th OF slot with some solid play last season.
The rotation is shit, plain and simple. As the ace of the staff, Guthrie makes a nice number 3 starter. No knock on Guthrie, he is a good pitcher, but wouldn't be an ace on any other team in baseball. Dan Cabrera should be non-tendered or moved to the pen where his shitty control may be seen as "cool" or "hip." Other rotation candidates are: Lance Cormier, Matt Albers, Brian Burres, Freddy Deza, Rad Liz, Jim Miller, Brad Hennessey, Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Troy Patton, Chris Waters. That looks like a good AAA staff, not a ML staff. Penn, Patton, & Liz are good arms and could be good eventually though. In the pipe-line, they have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, & Jake Arrieta who are front-line quality arms. Realistically, they need 3 arms in free agency, at least 1 better than Guthrie. They actually need to get A.J. He can be their ace and lead them back to mediocrity and beyond. I think they should look at Jon Garland for mid-rotation, and Braden Looper/Odalis Perez for back-end.
The bull-pen is extremely over priced. The off-season that saw them sign Danys Baez and Jamie Walker, if possible, looks worse now. Baez cannot be dealt, and Walker isn't worth trading. If you could include them in deals with assets that would be brilliant. George Sherrill should be dealt, as they don't need a closer in 2009. Chris Ray should be back and 100%.
Deals I see the Orioles making.
I actually see them getting both Teix & A.J. for the record.
First, non-tendering Dan Cabrera.
Signing:
A.J. Burnett. SP - 5 years, $16 Million/season
Mark Teixeira. 1B - 8 years, $22 Million/season
Braden Looper/Odalis Perez. SP - 2 years, $5 Million/season
Orlando Cabrera. SS - 3 years, $12 Million/season
Total Added: $55 Million. That would mean that about $30 Million needs to be dumped to include these free agents.
Trades:
George Sherrill to St. Louis for SP (Mitchell Boggs, Jaime Garcia) & Brandon Ryan. This solves the Cards need for a closer on the cheap and gives the O's a live arm for the bull-pen and a potential starting SS or 2B.
Ramon Hernandez to New York for minor league pitcher (Brandon Knight type). Gives the Mets a starting catcher and the O's another back-end starter type for depth.
Brian Roberts and Jamie Walker to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt, Lames McDonald/Scott Elbert, & Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers get a lead-off man to replace Furcal and a 2nd baseman to replace Kent. The O's relieve themselves of Walker, pick-up a 3rd baseman, SS, and a SP with potential.
Melvin Mora to the Angels for Nick Green/Anthony Ortega type. Angels get a 3rd baseman to move Figgins to either 2nd or OF full-time. O's get another live arm for the rotation battle/depth.
In total. Additions of:
SP Mitchell Boggs/Jaime Garcia
SS Brandon Ryan
SP Brandon Knight
3B Blake DeWitt
SP Scott Elbert/James McDonald
SS Chin-Lung Hu
SP Nick Green/Anthony Ortega
All make league minimum-ish salaries of about $450,000
Players that are lost:
Dan Cabrera - $3.5M
Melvin Mora - $9M
Ramon Hernandez - $8M
Brian Roberts - $8M
Jamie Walker - $4.5M
George Sherrill - $2.5M
Total Dumped: $35.5 M
Potential Roster Construction:
C: Matt Weiters, Guillermo Quiroz
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Brandon Ryan
3B: Blake DeWitt
SS: Orlando Cabrera
LF: Luke Scott
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff
IF: Freddy Bynum/Chin-Lung Hu/Donnie Murphy (2 of the 3)
OF: Luis Montanez/Nolan Reimold
Rotation:
1. A.J. Burnett
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Braden Looper/Odalis Perez (gives younger guys less pressure)
4 & 5. Battle between about 10 guys (young guys from trades have leg-up)
Bull-pen:
Closer: Jim Johnson
Set-Up: Danys Baez (try to build up trade value)
Set-Up: Chris Ray
rest of bull-pen made up of live young arms.
I belive that the deals I went through with are realistic and beneficial to both teams involved. The roster construction leaves the Orioles looking like a decent team. A line-up with Markakis/Teix/Huff is pretty imposing and Jones is just going to get better. The pitching is still weak, but their system is good with strong arms.
I look forward to doing some more teams in the coming days, to try and keep myself in the hot-stove action.
Peace out
The top prospect list are coming together from both Baseball America & Minor League Ball, so I'm going to start close to my Blue Jays and rock the Baltimore Orioles off-season forecast.
To start off, 42 players who could potentially make up their roster next season cost about $70 Million. Since last season's payroll was about $70 Million, one could guess that unless their is a drastic raise in payroll, the Orioles are fucked.
Their big off-season targets seem to be 2 Maryland-born free-agents, Mark Teixeira & A.J. Burnett, and $0 in their potential budget is huge mushroom-tattoo on their cheek.
But, the Orioles have been known to spend money, as their 2007 payroll was about $95 Million. Using that number, it gives them about $25 Million to jiggle around.
Their current roster formation is one that is a cluster-fuck of over-paid, under-talented old bastards.
I don't think Burnett or Teixeira will take "hometown discounts" to play on a shitty team, so it's gonna have to be money that brings them home. Burnett will need at least $15 Million over at least 5 years to play in Baltimore. And I assume Teixeira will take a $20 Million annual fee over 8 years. Just to acquire both guys, Baltimore would need to cut about $10 Million in salary.
Let's start at Catcher for this "team."
Ramon Hernandez sucks. How he turned a couple decent seasons into the contract he currently has is fucking outstanding. I need to meet his agent. Good news, Matt Weiters is going to be a stud. And he might be ready right now. So dump Hernandez. I'm sure they could pawn him on the Mets for a reliever, in a salary dump. Scott Shoendouche or Pedro Feliciano would be sufficient in my opinion. Hernandez makes $8 Million, the 2 pitchers each make about $3 Million. Ex-Jay Guillermo Quiroz is a capable back-up.
The First Base situation is pretty sticky:
If Teix is signed, everything is peachy. If not, look out. I guess Aubrey Huff could here, but his best position is DH. Scott Moore is an offensive minor league player, who would be an option in only the most extreme circumstances. Bottom line, they need Teix.
At least 2nd base is set, with Brian Roberts. Although their were rumblings last off-season, nothing came to fruition. Brian Roberts is an Oriole, and it's a shame, because he could bring in an excellent bounty, and 2nd base is an easy position to get league average stats from for cheap. I would trade him off for a young pitcher to anyone who will pay 100% of his money. I'd look for a guy with no more than 1.5 years of service time who is a safe bet to log solid innings. If the Orioles could pull a Marlins and unload Hernandez with him to the Mets, or another team wanting Roberts, the same way the Marlins pawned Lowell off with Beckett, it would be brilliant GMing.
3rd base is set with Melvin Mora mostly due to his massive contract. He put up a solid season, so he may have trade value if you need to look here to move money. There are no in-house options, unless you want a platoon of Scott Moore & Mike Contanzo. Which no-one does. Outside help would need to be acquired to fill this spot in the event of a More deal.
Short Stop is a black hole for Baltimore. They signed Donnie Murphy to add to a list that includes Freddy Bynum, Brandon Fahey, and Luiz Hernandez as candidates for playing time in AAA. Baltimore needs to add a short stop. I think it should priority A over Teixeira & Burnett. A trade for Jack Wilson would be smart, and a trade for Khalil Greene would be brilliant. Problem is, the Orioles don't have good arms to deal.
In the outfield, things are pretty set. Adam Jones is gonna be a good player for a long time and Nick Markakis is already a very good player. Luke Scott is the weak link in the OF, but he is a solid player as well. Scott could probably play 1B is they can't get Teix, with OF help easier to find than 1B production. Luis Montanez proved he deserves a shot at a 4th OF slot with some solid play last season.
The rotation is shit, plain and simple. As the ace of the staff, Guthrie makes a nice number 3 starter. No knock on Guthrie, he is a good pitcher, but wouldn't be an ace on any other team in baseball. Dan Cabrera should be non-tendered or moved to the pen where his shitty control may be seen as "cool" or "hip." Other rotation candidates are: Lance Cormier, Matt Albers, Brian Burres, Freddy Deza, Rad Liz, Jim Miller, Brad Hennessey, Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Troy Patton, Chris Waters. That looks like a good AAA staff, not a ML staff. Penn, Patton, & Liz are good arms and could be good eventually though. In the pipe-line, they have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, & Jake Arrieta who are front-line quality arms. Realistically, they need 3 arms in free agency, at least 1 better than Guthrie. They actually need to get A.J. He can be their ace and lead them back to mediocrity and beyond. I think they should look at Jon Garland for mid-rotation, and Braden Looper/Odalis Perez for back-end.
The bull-pen is extremely over priced. The off-season that saw them sign Danys Baez and Jamie Walker, if possible, looks worse now. Baez cannot be dealt, and Walker isn't worth trading. If you could include them in deals with assets that would be brilliant. George Sherrill should be dealt, as they don't need a closer in 2009. Chris Ray should be back and 100%.
Deals I see the Orioles making.
I actually see them getting both Teix & A.J. for the record.
First, non-tendering Dan Cabrera.
Signing:
A.J. Burnett. SP - 5 years, $16 Million/season
Mark Teixeira. 1B - 8 years, $22 Million/season
Braden Looper/Odalis Perez. SP - 2 years, $5 Million/season
Orlando Cabrera. SS - 3 years, $12 Million/season
Total Added: $55 Million. That would mean that about $30 Million needs to be dumped to include these free agents.
Trades:
George Sherrill to St. Louis for SP (Mitchell Boggs, Jaime Garcia) & Brandon Ryan. This solves the Cards need for a closer on the cheap and gives the O's a live arm for the bull-pen and a potential starting SS or 2B.
Ramon Hernandez to New York for minor league pitcher (Brandon Knight type). Gives the Mets a starting catcher and the O's another back-end starter type for depth.
Brian Roberts and Jamie Walker to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt, Lames McDonald/Scott Elbert, & Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers get a lead-off man to replace Furcal and a 2nd baseman to replace Kent. The O's relieve themselves of Walker, pick-up a 3rd baseman, SS, and a SP with potential.
Melvin Mora to the Angels for Nick Green/Anthony Ortega type. Angels get a 3rd baseman to move Figgins to either 2nd or OF full-time. O's get another live arm for the rotation battle/depth.
In total. Additions of:
SP Mitchell Boggs/Jaime Garcia
SS Brandon Ryan
SP Brandon Knight
3B Blake DeWitt
SP Scott Elbert/James McDonald
SS Chin-Lung Hu
SP Nick Green/Anthony Ortega
All make league minimum-ish salaries of about $450,000
Players that are lost:
Dan Cabrera - $3.5M
Melvin Mora - $9M
Ramon Hernandez - $8M
Brian Roberts - $8M
Jamie Walker - $4.5M
George Sherrill - $2.5M
Total Dumped: $35.5 M
Potential Roster Construction:
C: Matt Weiters, Guillermo Quiroz
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Brandon Ryan
3B: Blake DeWitt
SS: Orlando Cabrera
LF: Luke Scott
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff
IF: Freddy Bynum/Chin-Lung Hu/Donnie Murphy (2 of the 3)
OF: Luis Montanez/Nolan Reimold
Rotation:
1. A.J. Burnett
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Braden Looper/Odalis Perez (gives younger guys less pressure)
4 & 5. Battle between about 10 guys (young guys from trades have leg-up)
Bull-pen:
Closer: Jim Johnson
Set-Up: Danys Baez (try to build up trade value)
Set-Up: Chris Ray
rest of bull-pen made up of live young arms.
I belive that the deals I went through with are realistic and beneficial to both teams involved. The roster construction leaves the Orioles looking like a decent team. A line-up with Markakis/Teix/Huff is pretty imposing and Jones is just going to get better. The pitching is still weak, but their system is good with strong arms.
I look forward to doing some more teams in the coming days, to try and keep myself in the hot-stove action.
Peace out
Thursday, November 13, 2008
I'm Back...And Let The Free Agent Madness Begin
First I want to breakdown the big deals the last week or so before some closing comments on the impending kick-off of "free agent frenzy," which is a super gay name.
The first trade I want to discuss is one that has a minimum effect on the Jays. Florida started it's annual clearance sale by unloading OBP beast Mike Jacobs for shit baller Leo Nunez, who I think owned the Jays this year when they faced. I hate this trade for Kansas City because they have a super cheap power option from both sides of the plate in Kila Kaaihue as a lefty power bat with monster numbers last year in AA/AAA, and Ryan Shealy as a righty power bat who seems to be a 4A player, but deserves a shot. This deal has sparked some talk of Billy Butler being on the way out. This kid could be another Mike Sweeney (in the good way) and just needs a shot. While Florida picks up a quality arm for late-inning duty, it is a stupid trade by KC, as it wastes money on a potential DROWN grade from far cheaper options. This deal means either Kila or Butler, or both could start in AAA or another organization. On the plus side, Jacobs won't be in Toronto wasting a valuable roster spot.
The next trade was also the Marlins unloading Scott Olsen & Josh Willingham onto Washington for Emilio Bonafacio & 2 Minor League Prospects, who are not worth mentioning. Where to start? Oh yeah, how about how Florida could've solved it's catching problem by dealing Olson to Texas for Laird or Ramirez. Or how Willingham probably could've gotten Bonafacio on his own, or a comparable ready-for-MLB fringe 2nd baseman. Bonafacio is the key here for Florida, as he is plus defender at 2nd and has a fuck-load of speed. He also blocks either Dallas McPherson from playing in the majors next year. Unless Florida trades Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu plays first with Uggla at 3rd next year. They still have a hole at catcher, and now their potential sell-offs have been short changed. I don't see how their wasn't big interest in Olson by most teams in the league. In the AL, he would be a borderline 4, good 5 man in the rotation. In the NL, he could be a quality 3 man. Willingham has big power, and the ability to play a couple positions, including catcher in a pinch. He could be the opening day 1st sacker or LF and should help push the Nats toward respectability. Confusing from the Marlins stand-point, and I see it as a fleecing by the Nats staff.
In a fucking shocker, the A's picked up Matt Holliday from the Rockies for closer Huston Street, super-prospect Carlos Gonzalez, and quality starter Greg Smith. I actually like this trade for both teams, but I see it as an overpayment for Holliday's services on a team that most likely most contend next season. From Colorado's perspective, this is a great move. Gonzalez can step in and play RF next year, with Hawpe in LF. Smith can be penciled in to be the 3 or 4 in the rotation. And Street can either be a quality 9th inning guy or be dealt for a couple prospects. But Holliday is a hell of hitter. Here's hoping he can hit in a pitcher's park too.
A couple trades today. Yesterday? The first was one I wish the Jays could've gotten in on. The Yankees picked up Nick Swisher, switch hitting 1st baseman/RF/LF for Wilson Betemit & Jeff Marquez. There was another guy on each side, but it's probably not a big deal. Swisher is a guy the Jays could use to replace Overbay when he is hopefully traded to Seattle or some other place I don't care about. I'm sure the Jays might have been able to land him with Bautista & Frasor or something similar. Betemit is the big winner in my opinion, as he might actually get a chance to play in Chicago. He could be a break-out candidate next season playing 3rd base for the Dirty Sox. Marquez is essentially Ian Kennedy with injury history, so pretty much a shit baller. Swisher is put in an environment which doesn't seem to suit his personality. Bye-bye facial hair and long hair for cancer (which means the Yankees are pro-cancer). Hello calm and held back Nick Swisher, welcome to the pressure cooker of NY, now replace Mark Teixeira in the eyes of our retarded fans.
The 2nd trade of the day was another shining example of the Jeckle/Hyde thing going on in Florida, as the marlins fleeced the Cubs for Jose Ceda by using Kevin Gregg. 2 things. 1 - Kevin Gregg is a shit baller who fell into a closer's job last season (even though he did a good job). 2 - Jose Ceda will probly be better than in 2009. I don't mean long term, Ceda will be the better player. I mean, next season, Jose Ceda will be better in every aspect of pitching than Kevin Gregg. Terrible trade, which apparently has kicked Kerry Wood out of Chicago.
One trade that hasn't been completed as quickly as I expected was the Peavey deal, which could shoot off a succession of moves by San Diego which could impact free agency in a big way. Khalil Greene will be dealt if SD gets a SS in a deal and Brian Giles could be on the outs pretty soon too.
Well, free agency begins today at some point I think, and I wanna give 1 last rundown of the free agents and some great fits.
Catcher
I-Rod. Could be a solid 1 year option for a team with young pitching. Florida or Cincinatti could spend some money to lock up a proven back-stop.
Jason Varitek. He should be back with Boston, but would make a nice option on a team with young arms, like Florida or Cincinatti. San Diego could also be an option if it can get a good deal.
Potential Bargains: Mike Barrett, Paul Lo Duca, Josh Bard, David Ross. Any of these guys could wind up starting on a mediocre team and could rebound into above average starters or great back-ups.
1st Base
Mark Teixeira. If he doesn't re-sign with the Angels, I would be shocked.
2nd Base
Orlando Hudson. Defensive minded guy with a solid bat should get big pay day, even with injury risk. The Mets make too much sense if Castillo is gone, but the Giants make a lot of sense as well to me.
Vets with Something left? Ray Durham, Jeff Kent, Mark Loretta, Mark Grudzielanek. Arizona needs an inexpensive player to fill 2nd base. So might Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago Sox, St. Louis, and a few others.
3rd Base
Casey Blake. I don't see him being a smart signing by anyone who expects a star player. Blake is good role player, and would an amazing guy to use as a super-utility guy around the corners playing 5 times a week. But their are teams out their who need a 3rd baseman who will throw money at Blake and regret it later.
Shockers? Russell Branyon could surprise and hit 40 HR next season if someone gives hims a chance at 500 AB. Nomar Garciaparra may have 1 more season in him and still is good bat when healthy (which is never).
SS
Rafy Furcal. Head of the class, and a lot of teams need a short stop and a lead off hitter. Furcal is both. Should get paid big by either Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago (either), or Baltimore.
Orlando Cabrera. Good glove, average bat. Has some nice tools that would fit with any team looking for a 2/3 year option at SS.
Edgar Renteria. He better go to an NL team, or fuck him. He will deserve his failures if he signs in the AL. Could be a rebound candidate in the NL for a lucky team.
DH
Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey. These guys are all either old or injured or just terrible and shouldn't be allowed to own gloves. Most will be allowed to though. All are smart signings by the Jays in my opinion. And any team needing a DH option should be looking at one of these big bats.
OF
Raul Ibanez. Sleeper, who will be a rare case a free agent not getting fair market treatment.
Bobby Abreu. Will be a great signing by whoever decides it necessary.
Other OF Options: Garrett Anderson, Juan Rivera, Jim Edmonds, Mark Kotsay, Emil Brown. All could find a starting job and could be bargains next year.
I'm not gonna talk pitching because it such a fucking crap shoot that it's not worth it.
Peace. Talk to You later.
The first trade I want to discuss is one that has a minimum effect on the Jays. Florida started it's annual clearance sale by unloading OBP beast Mike Jacobs for shit baller Leo Nunez, who I think owned the Jays this year when they faced. I hate this trade for Kansas City because they have a super cheap power option from both sides of the plate in Kila Kaaihue as a lefty power bat with monster numbers last year in AA/AAA, and Ryan Shealy as a righty power bat who seems to be a 4A player, but deserves a shot. This deal has sparked some talk of Billy Butler being on the way out. This kid could be another Mike Sweeney (in the good way) and just needs a shot. While Florida picks up a quality arm for late-inning duty, it is a stupid trade by KC, as it wastes money on a potential DROWN grade from far cheaper options. This deal means either Kila or Butler, or both could start in AAA or another organization. On the plus side, Jacobs won't be in Toronto wasting a valuable roster spot.
The next trade was also the Marlins unloading Scott Olsen & Josh Willingham onto Washington for Emilio Bonafacio & 2 Minor League Prospects, who are not worth mentioning. Where to start? Oh yeah, how about how Florida could've solved it's catching problem by dealing Olson to Texas for Laird or Ramirez. Or how Willingham probably could've gotten Bonafacio on his own, or a comparable ready-for-MLB fringe 2nd baseman. Bonafacio is the key here for Florida, as he is plus defender at 2nd and has a fuck-load of speed. He also blocks either Dallas McPherson from playing in the majors next year. Unless Florida trades Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu plays first with Uggla at 3rd next year. They still have a hole at catcher, and now their potential sell-offs have been short changed. I don't see how their wasn't big interest in Olson by most teams in the league. In the AL, he would be a borderline 4, good 5 man in the rotation. In the NL, he could be a quality 3 man. Willingham has big power, and the ability to play a couple positions, including catcher in a pinch. He could be the opening day 1st sacker or LF and should help push the Nats toward respectability. Confusing from the Marlins stand-point, and I see it as a fleecing by the Nats staff.
In a fucking shocker, the A's picked up Matt Holliday from the Rockies for closer Huston Street, super-prospect Carlos Gonzalez, and quality starter Greg Smith. I actually like this trade for both teams, but I see it as an overpayment for Holliday's services on a team that most likely most contend next season. From Colorado's perspective, this is a great move. Gonzalez can step in and play RF next year, with Hawpe in LF. Smith can be penciled in to be the 3 or 4 in the rotation. And Street can either be a quality 9th inning guy or be dealt for a couple prospects. But Holliday is a hell of hitter. Here's hoping he can hit in a pitcher's park too.
A couple trades today. Yesterday? The first was one I wish the Jays could've gotten in on. The Yankees picked up Nick Swisher, switch hitting 1st baseman/RF/LF for Wilson Betemit & Jeff Marquez. There was another guy on each side, but it's probably not a big deal. Swisher is a guy the Jays could use to replace Overbay when he is hopefully traded to Seattle or some other place I don't care about. I'm sure the Jays might have been able to land him with Bautista & Frasor or something similar. Betemit is the big winner in my opinion, as he might actually get a chance to play in Chicago. He could be a break-out candidate next season playing 3rd base for the Dirty Sox. Marquez is essentially Ian Kennedy with injury history, so pretty much a shit baller. Swisher is put in an environment which doesn't seem to suit his personality. Bye-bye facial hair and long hair for cancer (which means the Yankees are pro-cancer). Hello calm and held back Nick Swisher, welcome to the pressure cooker of NY, now replace Mark Teixeira in the eyes of our retarded fans.
The 2nd trade of the day was another shining example of the Jeckle/Hyde thing going on in Florida, as the marlins fleeced the Cubs for Jose Ceda by using Kevin Gregg. 2 things. 1 - Kevin Gregg is a shit baller who fell into a closer's job last season (even though he did a good job). 2 - Jose Ceda will probly be better than in 2009. I don't mean long term, Ceda will be the better player. I mean, next season, Jose Ceda will be better in every aspect of pitching than Kevin Gregg. Terrible trade, which apparently has kicked Kerry Wood out of Chicago.
One trade that hasn't been completed as quickly as I expected was the Peavey deal, which could shoot off a succession of moves by San Diego which could impact free agency in a big way. Khalil Greene will be dealt if SD gets a SS in a deal and Brian Giles could be on the outs pretty soon too.
Well, free agency begins today at some point I think, and I wanna give 1 last rundown of the free agents and some great fits.
Catcher
I-Rod. Could be a solid 1 year option for a team with young pitching. Florida or Cincinatti could spend some money to lock up a proven back-stop.
Jason Varitek. He should be back with Boston, but would make a nice option on a team with young arms, like Florida or Cincinatti. San Diego could also be an option if it can get a good deal.
Potential Bargains: Mike Barrett, Paul Lo Duca, Josh Bard, David Ross. Any of these guys could wind up starting on a mediocre team and could rebound into above average starters or great back-ups.
1st Base
Mark Teixeira. If he doesn't re-sign with the Angels, I would be shocked.
2nd Base
Orlando Hudson. Defensive minded guy with a solid bat should get big pay day, even with injury risk. The Mets make too much sense if Castillo is gone, but the Giants make a lot of sense as well to me.
Vets with Something left? Ray Durham, Jeff Kent, Mark Loretta, Mark Grudzielanek. Arizona needs an inexpensive player to fill 2nd base. So might Cleveland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago Sox, St. Louis, and a few others.
3rd Base
Casey Blake. I don't see him being a smart signing by anyone who expects a star player. Blake is good role player, and would an amazing guy to use as a super-utility guy around the corners playing 5 times a week. But their are teams out their who need a 3rd baseman who will throw money at Blake and regret it later.
Shockers? Russell Branyon could surprise and hit 40 HR next season if someone gives hims a chance at 500 AB. Nomar Garciaparra may have 1 more season in him and still is good bat when healthy (which is never).
SS
Rafy Furcal. Head of the class, and a lot of teams need a short stop and a lead off hitter. Furcal is both. Should get paid big by either Toronto, Atlanta, Chicago (either), or Baltimore.
Orlando Cabrera. Good glove, average bat. Has some nice tools that would fit with any team looking for a 2/3 year option at SS.
Edgar Renteria. He better go to an NL team, or fuck him. He will deserve his failures if he signs in the AL. Could be a rebound candidate in the NL for a lucky team.
DH
Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey. These guys are all either old or injured or just terrible and shouldn't be allowed to own gloves. Most will be allowed to though. All are smart signings by the Jays in my opinion. And any team needing a DH option should be looking at one of these big bats.
OF
Raul Ibanez. Sleeper, who will be a rare case a free agent not getting fair market treatment.
Bobby Abreu. Will be a great signing by whoever decides it necessary.
Other OF Options: Garrett Anderson, Juan Rivera, Jim Edmonds, Mark Kotsay, Emil Brown. All could find a starting job and could be bargains next year.
I'm not gonna talk pitching because it such a fucking crap shoot that it's not worth it.
Peace. Talk to You later.
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