Holy Panda Rape!

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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Off-Season Preview: THE Toronto Blue Jays

So, after a pretty awesome 1st round of playoffs, I have decided to use some free time previously alloted to watching kick-ass playoff baseball to go over some numbers for the AL East and their payroll situations headin into the offseason.

I have been keeping an excel spreadsheet of the AL East teams' payroll commitments for about 3 season now, and it come in very handy when I need to find out how many years a certain player has left on his deal, or when he hits arbitration. I use Cots Baseball Contracts like a bible. Now, they have also put spreadsheets together for every team, giving me even more detail.

So, onto the outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Payroll for the 2009 season was between $75M and $80M. Including arbitration raises (which I have estimated, probably generously, in the players favour), I have the payroll at around $80M with the players on board. The 2008 payroll was almost $100M and there have been reports and thoughts that the payroll could reach as high as about $120M if there was a clear direction for how it was used.

I think the Jays will probably stick to about a $75M limit, and consider this season more of a rebuilding year.

To get down to that number, a few moves must be made. Trading Halladay drops the estimated payroll to about $65M. Non-tendering Jose Bautista eliminates another $3M. And if Brian Tallet or Jeremy Accardo are dealt, that is another estimated $2M. And Lyle Overbay's $7M could be traded as well. As could Edwin Encarnacion's $4.75M.

All of that is unlikely though, so let's look at the breakdown.

Pitchers:
Starters:
Roy Halladay - $15.75M
Shaun Marcum - Estimated $1.5M
Ricky Romero - Estimated $450,000
Brett Cecil - Estimated $450,000
Marc Rzepczynski - Estimated $450,000
David Purcey - Estimated $450,000
Scott Richmond - Estimated $450,000
Fabio Castro - Estimated $400,000
INJURED:
Jesse Litsch - Estimated $450,000
Dustin McGowan - Estimated $600,000

Relievers:
Scott Downs - $4M
Jason Frasor - Estimated $2.5M
Brian Tallet - Estimated 1.75M
Jeremy Accard0 - Estimated $1.5M
Shawn Camp - Estimated $1.25M
Brandon League - Estimated $1.25M
Casey Janssen - Estimated $450,000
Brian Wolfe - Estimated $450,000
Josh Roenicke - Estimated $450,000
Dirk Hayhurst - Estimated $450,000
Jesse Carlson - Estimated $450,000
DEAD MONEY:
B.J. Ryan - $10M

The pitching staff has about $40M commited to it for 2010. The Jays could probably trade 2 starters and have comfortable depth remaining. If Tallet is a starting candidate, than he is another trade candidate. With plenty of bullpen depth, some of the more expensive guys should be shopped. Downs and Accardo are both guys I expect to get offered around.

If all the pitchers stay internal (not a terrible idea during a rebuild), this is how the team could look minus Tallet, Downs, and Accardo (which would save about $7M).

SP
1. Halladay
2. Romero
3. Marcum
4. Rzep
5. Cecil/Purcey/Richmond
Bullpen
CL. Frasor
LHP. Carlson
LHP. Cecil/Castro/Purcey
RHP. Camp
RHP. League
RHP. Janssen
RHP. Roenicke/Hayhurst/Richmond/Wolfe

Position Players

With so many free agents, a lot of the positon players are yet to be determined.

C - Raul Chavez and J.P. Arencibia are the two option in house. Chavez is elligible for arbitration (I think. I can't get a legit answer anywhere) and is not an ideal starter on even the worst teams, while Arencibia is Barajas lite. I expect at least 1 catcher to be signed.

1B - Lyle Overbay ($7M) is somewho I imagine the Jays would try and trade. He plays great defense and hits righties very well, but is overpayed and is no longer an everyday player due to his struggles against lefties. There are few teams that would be willing to acquire all of Overbay, but that will be a focus for Anthopoulos in my eyes.

If Overbay is traded, that allows to Jays some flexibility. They could try Adam Lind (a 1B in college) or Randy Ruiz (a DH who has played 1B in the minors) or even try Brian Dopirak (former top prospect who has mashed in AA/AAA the last 2 seasons).

2B - Aaron Hill ($4M in 2010). Joe Inglett (Estimated league minimum in 2010) is an option for the utility role.

3B - Edwin Encarnacion ($4.75M). In an ideal world, Encarnacion is dealt away. He is just not a good player. He is a little above average in his career with the bat, but his defense is kind of terrible. With a young staff of pitchers, you need a good defense and as we all saw with Scott Rolen, a good defender is pretty neccessary. If dealt, there are few in house options to replace him. Jose Bautista (Estimated $3M in 2010) could be a candidate, but his defense isn't great and a non-tender candidate himself.

SS - No in house options.

OF - Vernon Wells ($16M+ in 2010) is an unmovable contract, and the Jays will have to hope for a turnaround closer to his previous numbers. Adam Lind and Travis Snider (estimated league minimum in 2010) are possibilities for the corners, but both are below average defenders in that situation. Snider seems to be an average fielder, while Lind is pretty terrible. In house OF Buck Coats is a candidtate for 4th/5th OF.

In a perfect world, Overbay and Encarnacion are traded and Bautista is non-tendered, which would shed $14M and give the team some flexibility to go out and overpay for a couple hitters to beef up the line-up this season and in the future.

This could be an exciting off-season for Jays fans, as there could be mass changes to the team on the field and off.

I look forward to an exciting off-season.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Playoff Preview: Red Sox vs Angels

Pitching

Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey. I like this match-up, especially in Los Angeles. This is too even to call when just looking at the starters. Should be a fantastic game.
Game 2:
Josh Beckett vs Jered Weaver. Even dealing with injuries all season, you have to like Beckett in the playoffs. He has been stellar in October for most of his career. Weaver is a really good pitcher, but not on Beckett's level.
Game 3:
Clay Buchholz vs Scott Kazmir. This should be interting. Buchholz has been inconsistant and Kazmir has been really shakey this season. I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one.
Game 4:
Daisuke Matsusaka vs Joe Saunders. I don't like the back-to-back lefties starting for LA, especially with the monster at Fenway. I think it will be a big mistake using lefties in both Fenway games.
Game 5:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey.

Bullpen
From the right side, Jon Papelbon will close out games, while Dan Bard, Takashi Saito, and Ramon Ramirez will help bridge the gap. Lefties Billy Wagner and Hideki Okajima will have the taks of retiring Bobby Abreu and turning around Kenry Morales. Paul Byrd is available for a long relief role.

Lefty Brian Fuentes is the closer, and will be helped by Darren Oliver from the left side, who will have the task of putting away J.D. Drew and David Ortiz. The right-handers are Kevin Jepson, Jason Bulger, Matt Palmer (who will be the long-man), and starter Erivn Santana. The test will be Santana, who has amazing stuff, but has never been in high leverage relief situations before.

I have to give the edge to the Red Sox, as the top righty arms for the Angels (Bulger and Jepson) have had some duribility questions recently and may not be 100%. Even if they were, the depth in Boston's bullpen is outstanding.

Positionally:

Catcher
Victor Martinez vs Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis. V-Mart was probably the best mid-season pick-up in the AL, and has given the Red Sox a strength at a position that was a weakness. Napoli and Mathis form a very nice tandem, with Napoli being kind of an Adam Dunn lite, with the power and walks. Mathis is a fantastic defensive catcher, and when he is in the running game should be limited.

First Base
Kevin Youkilis/Casey Kotchman vs Kenry Morales. When Youk is playing 1B, the Sox probably have the edge, but not by much. Morales has been an MVP candidate this season and has really stepped up and replaced Mark Teixeira. When Youk plays 3B, the Angels have a big advantage. Kotchman is a very good glove man.

Second Base
Dustin Pedroia vs Howie Kendrick/Maicer Izturis. Edge to the Sox either way. Kendrick has been pretty bad with the bat this season and has never been anything special with the glove, so Izturis could use his stellar defense to take starts away from Kendrick.

Third Base
Mike Lowell/Kevin Youkilis vs Chone Figgins. I love Figgins. Huge man-crush. But, if Youk is starting at 3B, they have the edge. If Lowell starts at 3B, which I don't think he should, than the Angels have a nice advantage. Lowell always seems to be sore and is not half the fielder he was even 2 seasons ago.

Short Stop
Alex Gonzalez vs Erick Aybar. Gonzalez is probably the better fielder, but Aybar is pretty dangerous offensive player with his speed and contact ability. I would have to give the edge to the Angels.

Left Field
Jason Bay vs Juan Rivera. Advantage Red Sox. Both are below average in the field, but Bay is the better hitter.

Centre Field
Jacoby Ellsbury vs Torii Hunter. This one is really close, as they are such different players. Both are excellent fielders, but do it in different ways. Ellsbury uses his speed to trakc down flies, while Hunter seems to glide after getting fantistic reads off the bat. Offensively, Hunter is a power hitter, while Ellsbury is a singles/gap hitter who steals a bunch of bases. Total package, I have to go with Hunter.

Right Field
J.D. Drew vs Bobby Abreu. Both are actually pretty similar, being patient hitters with mediocre defense. Abreu has always been awalk machine and I have always thought he was underrated. I have to give the edge to the Angels.

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz vs Vladimir Guerrero. 5 years ago, this is a fantastic match-up between 2 of the games very best hitters. Vlad is still a good hitter, but his power has been sapped a bit and he can no longer play the field due to injuries. Ortiz started brutally this season, but has been solid since lighting up Brett Cecil. Tough choice, and I could flip flop on this but I like Ortiz a little more, only because it is the playoffs.

Bench
Jason Varitek will back-up V-Mart, won't see anything more than inning or 2 and only if V-Mart gets pinch ran for. Casey Kotchman should get a couple starts, and is a solid hitter and a great fielder. Jed Lowrie may get a start a SS, but should see a little time regardless as he is a better hitter (slightly) than Gonzalez. Brian Anderson and Joey Gathright will be the back-up OF and pinch runners. Anderson is a great fielder, and should see some defensive time and maybe a start against a lefty in RF. Gathright is their Dave Roberts and will probably be limited to pinch running and defensive replacement status.

Bobby Wilson is here for moral support and for emergancies late in games after both other catchers have been used. Maicer Izturis is a solid middle infield option and should see a couple starts at 2B. Robb Quinlann is good against lefties and can play 3B, 1B, and the corner OF. Gary Matthews Jr. is a good defender and could be used late in close games in LF for Rivera. Reggie Willits is most likely only here to pinch run.

I give the bench advantage to the Red Sox.

Verdict:
I have to say that I think the Red Sox will out-pitch the Angels and take the series in 5 games.

Playoff Preview: Cardinals vs Dodgers

Even though game 1 is in the books, in favour of the Dodgers, I still feel the need to post this. So, here I go.

Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Chris Carpenter vs Randy Wolf. On paper, this should've clear advantage St. Louis. Carp is a Cy candidate, while Wolf is a 30+ year old making his first playoff start in his career. The bullpens were used pretty early, even though both starters were pretty solid. The Dodgers won.
Game 2:
Adam Wainwright vs Clayton Kershaw. Fuck, I wish I could watch this game. This match-up is incredible. I love watching Kershaw pitch, his stuff is out of this world. And Wainwright has been amazing this season, and is a real contender for the Cy. I think Pujols will have a good game today, so that leaves me thinking the Cardinals even up this series.
Game 3:
Joel Pinero vs Vincente Padilla. I don't get the decision not to go with Billingsley here. Padilla is not that good, and the Cardinals will probably show that. Pinero, meanwhile, is a groundball machine, and should do just fine. Game Cardinals.
Game 4:
Kyle Lohse/John Smoltz vs Billingsley?. If it is Billingley, I take the Dodgers. If they push up Wolf, then go Cardinals.
Game 5:
Carpenter/Wainwright vs Wolf/Kershaw. Good match-up either way.

Positionally:

Catcher
Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin. As good as Martin can be, Yadier has been pretty awesome. His arm is unbelievable, which could stop the running game dead for Furcal and Pierre. On the other side, Martin has been underwhelming the last 2 seasons and no one is sure if this is his true level of play. Advantage Cardinals.

First Base
Albert Pujols vs James Loney. Pujols is the best player in baseball. While Loney is a good hitter, he doesn't have much power. Both are fantastic defensively.

Second Base
Skip Shumaker vs Ronnie Belliard/Orlando Hudson. Another bad decision by the Dodgers decision makers. Hudson should be starting, as he is better on both sides than Belliard is. Shumaker is a good hitter and has some speed, but is still pretty new to 2B. He still may be a better defender than Belliard, but not Hudson, who is top class. Edge to the Cards if Belliard remains, to the Dodgers if Hudson takes over.

Third Base
Mark DeRosa vs Casey Blake. This is pretty even. Blake has more power, while DeRosa is the better overall hitter. He also fields a little better than Blake. Advantage Cardinals.

Short Stop
Brendan Ryan vs Rafael Furcal. Ryan is a good glove man, but he is not much with the stick. Furcal is a really good player, and has a cannon for an arm. He is also a pretty dangerous offensive player, using his speed really well. Advantage Dodgers.

Left Field
Matt Holliday vs Manny Ramirez. What a duo. Holliday has been outstanding since becoming a Cardinal, and is a far superior defensive LF and can steal some bases. Ramirez is in a class of his with the stick, and brings a lightness to the Dodgers. Slight advantage to the Dodgers.

Centre Field
Colby Rasmus vs Matt Kemp. There is something very special about Matt Kemp. The kid is gifted with something extremely rare with his power and speed combo. He also fields CF very well. Rasmus is no sloutch, but he can't hold a candle to Kemp. Advantage Dodgers.

Right Field
Ryan Ludwick/Rick Ankiel vs Andre Ethier. What an OF the Dodgers have. Ethier has been a beast this season and is showing that he can be an elite player. He reminds me of Adam Lind, but with very good defense. Ludwick has been a bit of a disappointment after his big season last year, and Ankiel may start against righties. Advantage Dodgers.

Bench
Jason LaRue probably won't play much, unless Molina goes down. Troy Glaus is a nice option to pinch hit late in games. Julio Lugo really played well when going to St. Louis mid-season, and brings some speed and a solid bat off the bench. Joe Thurston is a speedy utility player who can handle the bat pretty well, and is the 5th OF on the team. Rick Ankiel will sit the majority of the series, but is a nice pinch hitting option.

Brad Ausmus is a nice back-up option with his experience and his really good defense. Juan Castro is a great glove man, but is unneccessary on this team, as they have good defenders up the middle. Orlando Hudson should be starting, but is not, so he becomes a great option off the bench. Mark Loretta is nice hitter, and plays a fundamental game. Jim Thome, a great mid-season pick-up, is here to provide serious power off the bench. Juan Pierre is an amazing 4th OF, and his speed could be a huge factor similar to Dave Roberts in 2004 for Boston.

I think the advantage on the bench goes slightly to Los Angeles. The Cardinals have more pieces that I see being used in bigger roles, as Lugo could start at SS or 2B, and Ankiel could make an OF start. The Dodgers have clear cut starters, and their back-ups are really only pinch hitters, and maybe defensive replacements with the exception of Pierre. Juan Pierre is actually the differance maker for me, as his speed is game changing and he presents a great option late in games to play LF for Manny.

Bullpen
Righties Ryan Franklin, Blake Hawksworth, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, and Mitchell Boggs are all nice options at various points throughout the game and have outstanding beards. Lefties Trevor Miller and Dennys Reyes are both really nice options late in games, and their tasks are Andre Ethier and James Loney.

For the Dodgers, righties Ron Belisario, closer Jon Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, and long man Jeff Weaver is a great group. Lefties George Sherrill and Hong Kuo are also very good, although the lefties are scarse for the Cardinals.

I have to give the edge to the Dodgers, as they seem to have a better feel for how to use their guys in the best situations with a set plan. Torre is known for over working relievers into the ground (Scott Proctor,s arm is still sore), but he has enough really good arms to do the job.

Verdict:
I have to go with the Dodgers in this series. The offense is just too good, and since they have allready gotten past Carpenter, the only need to beat up on the back-end of the Cardinals rotation. Dodgers in 4.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Playoff Preview: Yankees vs Twins

Starting Pitching
Game 1:
C.C. Sabathia vs Brian Duensing. With the use of hindsight, and common sense, the Yankees have the advantage. They won the game pretty easily and while Duensing was solid, Sabathia was very good.
Game 2:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. This should be a really good match-up, as they are pretty evenly matched when lookig at their 2009 numbers. I think Burnett will be brilliant and the Yankees should take this one.
Game 3:
Andy Pettitte vs Carl Pavano. I like the Twins in this match-up. I have a feeling about Pavano, and I think he will do just enough to get the win and give the Twins a little hope.
Game 4:
C.C. Sabathia vs Scott Baker. I want to go the Twins here, as I love when 1 game decides the series, but I cannot see the Twins being able to do enough off of Sabathia.
Game 5:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. If it gets this far, which I predict it won't, the Yankees are fucked. With Burnett's track record, if he is brilliant in game 2, he could be pretty bad in game 5 with all of the pressure on him. I hate the decision to put Burnett in this spot and not Pettitte.

Positionally:

Catcher
Jorge Posada vs Joe Mauer. This one is easy. Mauer is the best player in the American League. I truly believe that. Posada will sit with Burnett on the mound, making this even more one-sided offensively. Mauer is also one of the best defensive catchers in baseball as well.

First Base
Mark Teixeira vs Michael Cuddyer. The loss of Justin Morneau really hurts here, where he matches up with Teixeria pretty evenly. As good as Cuddyer has been down the stretch, he is not in Teixeira's league. Being a regular OF, he may have defensive questions as well, whereas Teixeira is one the best in baseball.

Second Base
Robinson Cano vs Nick Punto. Another no brainer. Cano is a very good player on both sides, and his offense is top 5 in baseball at his position. Punto is a defensive whiz with little bat. Clear edge to the Yankees.

Third Base
Alex Rodriguez vs Matt Tolbert. A-Rod is one of the greatest players in history and Matt Tolbert is a bench player. Tolbert is starting in place of injured Joe Crede, and has een pretty hot lately. But, that won't make the gap between the two any less wide. Another clear edge to the Yanks.

Short Stop
Derek Jeter vs Orlando Cabrera. This one is close than I would like to admit, as I am a pretty huge Jeter mark. O-Cab's defense is better, regardless of what Jeet's gold gloves have to say. The offense is a fair bit apart though, as Jeter is one the best hitters ever at SS and is still top 5-10 in baseball.

Left Field
Johnny Damon vs Delmon Young. Damon is still a fine player and both parks play really well for a lefty pull hitter. Defensively, Damon can still run down fly balls, but his arm has always been really week. In a way, Delmon is the anti-Damon, as he is a pure power hitting righty with a cannon for arm but a pea for a brain. He constantly misses cut-off men and can cost his team bases. I love Young's bat, but his raw power hasn't really shown itself in the Major Leagues yet. I give the edge, ever so slightly, to the fundamentally sound Johnny Damon.

Centre Field
Melky Cabrera vs Denard Span. As clutch as Melky has been this year, coming up with big hits on a few occasions, he is as overrated as it gets. His defense is not as good as some would lead you to believe, although his arm is pretty incredible. Denard Span is a great lead-off hitter, with patience and a good ability to get the head of the bat on the ball. His speed is also a pretty big advantage over Cabrera. Advantage Twins.

Right Field
Nick Swisher vs Jason Kubel. This is the closest battle, as both have a lot of power and pretty good batting eyes. Kubel is a better hitter for average, while Swish is tremendous at getting on-base by any means neccessary. Defensively, Swish probably has the edge, but not by too much.

Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui vs Brendan Harris. Matsui is clearly better, as he was one of the DH's in the American League this season. End of discussion.

Bench
Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli are both on the roster, providing options for pinch running late in close games. Jerry Hairston Jr. and Eric Hinske were great mid-season pick-ups as both are very versitile and are pretty good hitters. Brett Gardner has blazing speed and should be a pest late in games pinch running and is a fine defensive CF.

Jose Morales and Mike Redmond both made the roster, as to allow Mauer to DH if they feel like going that route. Morales is a pretty decent hitter, while Redmond is a good defensive back-stop. Alexi Casilla is a solid defensive middle infielder and has a lot of speed for pinch running. Carlos Gomez is a terrific CF and has blazing speed, which should be available for pinch running.

I have to give the edge to the Yanks in bench depth and productivity. They have starters on the bench who are actually better than a couple of the Twins starters (Eric Hinske > Brendan Harris, Hairston Jr. > Nick Punto)

Bullpen
With only 3 starters needed, the Yanks are able to move Joba to the pen, which gives them 3 shut down righties. Rivera, Hughes, Joba, and David Robertson are all very effective righties. Marte and Coke bring it from the left side and will have the difficult task of shutting down Joe Mauer late in games. Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves are there for length.

The Twins bullpen is a different story. Joe Nathan is incredible, but he is only one man. He will have to be bridged by righties Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Bobby Keppel. Lefties Ron Mahay, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Mijares will have their hands full with Cano, Matsui, and switch hitters Swisher, Teixeira, and Posada.

I have to give the edge, by quite a margin, to the Yankees.

Verdict:
Yankees in 4 is my first choice. If there is a game 5, I go with the Twins.

Playoff Preview: Phillies vs. Rockies

Well, it's October, which means it is fucking time for some baseball.

Unfortunately, my Blue Jays sucked again this season, but I am a firm lover of Albert Pujols and still have a little love for Carpenter. So, I am firmly behind the St. Louis Cardinals.

But, the first series I am previewing is the first game on the slate today.

Starting Pitching

The Phillies have the edge here, with 2008 Cy winner Cliff Lee and awesome Cole Hamels, both lefties, facing off against a lefty-heavy line-up.

Game 1 features Cliff Lee vs Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has become a legit force atop the Rockies rotation, but facing a line-up as lefty heavy and deangerous as the Phillies possess will be a really tough challenge.

Game 2 will pit Cole Hamels against Aaron Cook. I see a clear advantage for the Phillies.

Game 3 will have Jason Hammel vs an un-named starter. Could be Pedro, Blanton, or Happ.

Game 4 will have Jason Marquis vs one of the above names.

The Phillies have better depth and better arms. The Rockies will need performances above the talent level if they are going out-pitch the Phillies.


Offense

Both teams feature a lefty heavy line-up, with the Phillies possessing more power.

Positionally:

Catcher
Carlos Ruiz vs Yorvit Torrealba. The Phillies probably have a slight defensive advantage, which is made up for by Torralba's slightly better defense.

First Base
Ryan Howard vs Todd Helton. Raw power vs pure hitter. Howard is so dangerous, and was an RsBI mchine all season. The edge goes to Howard, although Helton is an outstanding hitter in his own right. Howard is a butcher in the field, which lowers his edge only slightly.

Second Base
Chase Utley vs Clint Barmes. Clear advantage for the Phillies here, as Utley is an outstanding ballplayer. Barmes is solid, but is nowhere near the talent Utley is. Utley is also a gold-glove caliber defender. Eric Young Jr. could see some time at 2B is Barmes struggles even a little.

Third Base
Pedro Feliz vs Garrett Atkins/Ian Stewart. Feliz is outstanding defensively, and Atkins (who will likely play against lefties) is a bit of a butcher. Ian Stewart, when playing, is a really good 3B himself. Offensively, I give the edge to the Rockies duo. Feliz has some power, but I feel Stewart is a better hitter and Atkins is probably an equal with the stick.

Short Stop
Jimmy Rollins vs Troy Tulowitzki. I have to give the edge to the Rockies here, as Tulo has been outstanding this season. Rollins has been disappointing this season, but still has the ability to change the game with his rare combination of power and speed. Tulo is probably the better defender as well, although both are good defenders.

Left Field
Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Gonzalez/Ryan Spilborghs. Advantage Phillies. Ibanez has been outstanding this season and Gonzalez is an unproven rookie with some question marks. I would expect Spilborghs to play against liefties, but Gonzo is playing game 1. A huge edge defensively to the Rockies, which helps close the gap.

Centre Field
Shane Victorino vs Dexter Fowler. Both are switch hitters with good speed and good defense. Victorino's track record gives him the edge over the rookie, but Fowler has more speed, which could give the Phillies catcher a headache.

Right Field
Jayson Werth vs Brad Hawpe. I love Jayson Werth, I always have. He had a monster season, but Hawpe is no sloutch himself. Both have great arms in RF, but Werth is the better defender overall. I give the edge to Werth, both offensively and defensively in part because of the lefties Hawpe will face.

Bench
I love the Rockies bench. It has such a nice mix up players. Chris Ianetta is a fine hitter behind the dish, Jason Giambi has been a beast off the bench since signing with the Rockies, Seth Smith is a really solid young player, and Eric Young Jr. brings a tremendous asset with his speed. Add in Ryan Spilborghs and either Ian Stewart or Garrett Atkins and you have the makings of a very balanced and productive bench.

The Phillies have a pretty nice bench themselves. Paul Bako is a veteran with tonnes of experience, Miguels Cairo is a very versitile defender with a lot of experiance in the playoffs, Greg Dobbs is a nice hitter who can pinch hit early in the game and start over Feliz if needed at 3B, Ben Francisco was a nice mid-season pick-up and is a solid OF, and Matt Stairs brings serious power off the bench.

The edge goes to the Rockies, who just have a better bench. Period.

Bullpen
With the well documented struggles of Brad Lidge, the edge would seemingly go to the Rockies. I never discount experience in the playoffs, and in no place would I rather have it than in the bullpen. Lidge and company were great in the 2008 playoffs and there is verly little doubt they can repeat their success. Add in Brett Myers now in the bullpen and the Phillies have a nice colleciton of arms. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, and Chad Durbin are all very good right handed relievers. Scott Eyre is the only true lefty reliever out of the bullpen, but could be aided by Rookie of the Year contending starter J.A. Happ and rookie Antonio Bastardo in the earlier innings. Kyle Kendrick and either Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez make excellent long-men if needed.

The Rockies have a really good bullpen themselves. Huston Street was great this season and has re-established himself in Colorado. Mid-season acquisition Rafael Betencourt is a solid 8th inning option. Matt Belisle, Matt Daley, and Jose Contrares make up the righties in the bullpen. Joe Biemel and Franklin Morales will be the lefties coming out of the bullpen.

The advantage has to go to the experience of the Phillies. Neither team has a reliable second lefty out of the bullpen, so big spots could come down to a Ryan Howard vs Franklin Morales match-up.


Verdict:
I have to go with the Phillies in this series, but it won't be easy. The J-Factor is a clear advantage to the Phillies as well, as both Jayson Werth and Matt Stairs are ex-Blue Jays. That doesn't factor into my decision, but I can't overlook it.

PHILLIES IN 4.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Where They Stand: 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

This is the first part in what may be a full look at all 30 MLB teams and their payroll commitments heading into the offseason.

I will start with the St. Louis Cardinals, as I have been curious as to Albert Pujols' contract situation.


SP
Chris Carpenter - $14,500,000
Adam Wainwright - $4,838,000
Kyle Lohse - $9,188,000
Brad Thompson - Approx. $900,000
Mitchell Boggs - Approx. $400,000

Bullpen
Ryan Franklin - $3,250,000
Dennys Reyes - $2,000,000
Trevor Miller - $2,000,000
Kyle McClellan - Approx. $450,000
Josh Kinney - Approx. $650,000
Blake Hawksworth - Approx. $400,000
Jason Motte - Approx. $400,000

The Cardinals could use at least 1 starter for next season, but with a great top end, their need is a middle innings type like Jon Garland. It wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in 2 starters to have Thompson in the bullpen where is probably best suited.


C
Yadier Molina - $4,313,000
1B
Albert Pujols - $16,000,000
2B
Brendan Ryan - Approx. $450,000
3B
David Freese - Approx. $400,000
SS
Julio Lugo - Approx. $500,000
LF
Skip Shumaker - Approx. $800,000
CF
Colby Rasmus - Approx. $400,000
RF
Ryan Ludwick - Approx. $4,750,000

Bench
Joe Thurston - Approx. $500,000
Brian Barden - Approx. $450,000
Tyler Greene - Approx. $400,000
Joe Mather - Approx. $400,000

The Cardinals will need a back-up catcher definately. It depends a lot on what they want to do with Shumaker, as he is probably most beneficial at 2B if they can bring in a big hitting OF.

Their 2009 payroll was about $100 Million and they have about $70 Million commited allready for 2010 so they have the funds to go out and get their needs.

In summary, their needs (In order of their percieved importance):
Left-Fielder ($10-$15 Million)
Number 4 Starter ($5-$10 Million)
Third Baseman ($5 Million)
Number 5 Starter (Guy Coming Off Injuries)
Relief Help (Minor League Signings)