Well, I was thinking today at work what type of players would be ideal to recieve for Doc.
So, I started jotting down some teams and some guys I would target.
So, in this order of preferance, these are the positions I would like to aquire.
1. A young SS, who can have a little service time. He must be a solid glove man, but have some stick as well.
2. A young, speedy CF. He as well can have a little service time. I want a burner, a guy who will steal some bases and force a move into RF for V-Dub.
3. A young, semi-proven MLB starter. Think less than 2 years of service who was a top prospect and can be a top-of-the-rotation arm for the building Jays.
4. A young catcher, who can hit a little, while playing solid defense.
5. A 3B, who is under control for at least 3 more seasons. This guy must be young-ish, not yet in his prime.
6. Prospects. My least disirable targets. I want guys who impact the team right away, so unless the prospect is MLB-ready, than I would rather pass.
So, with that said...I am going through the teams and putting together packages that I would love to see.
NEW YORK YANKEES.
Our new GM said that he would not hesitate to trade within the division. I would rather not, but I guess it isn't a terrible idea. The players I would target from the Yankees are Phil Hughes and Brett Gardner. Those are really the only 2 players that I would want. Hughes could be a solid number 2 starter type (the Ace for a building team) and Gardner is a good glove in CF and can run like the wind. His OBP is decent enough to make for a quality lead-off man.
You almost have to have another really good piece in this deal, and I would prefer it not be a top prospect. I highly doubt the Yankees would give up both Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, but they might prefer that over giving up top prospect Jesus Montero. The Yanks seem hesitant to define Hughes and Chamberlain, so maybe they might see them as relievers and think that it is not that bad of a deal.
So, let's assume that the Yankees would go for Hughes/Joba/Gardner. Would the Jays? I can't see how AA could turn down the potential of 2 young arms like that plus a replacement for Scutaro in the lead-off spot.
BOSTON RED SOX
With the Red Sox, there are 3 guys I would specifically target for a deal. The first, Jacoby Ellsbury. He would be a great lead-off option and would shift Wells over to RF.
The second, Clay Buchholz. He has showed glimpses of brilliance and could be a solid replacement for Doc at the top of the rotation.
The thrid, Jed Lowrie. Sure, he had an injured and terrible season, but he could replace Scutaro at SS and hit at the bottom of the order.
The package seems strong enough to get it done. You could always replace Lowrie with a young pitcher like Michael Bowden, but I prefer the young position player.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
There are plenty of pieces I would love to grab from the Angels. SS Erick Aybar, 3B/SS Brandon Wood, C Mike Napoli, and SP Jered Weaver. I would love Weaver, Napoli, and Aybar.
Aybar would be a great SS and would be able to lead-off. The Angels could lose him and still start either Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood at SS.
Napoli is a solid defensive catcher and has a lot of power. His on-base skills are very impressive and he would be a nice option in the middle of the line-up. Due to the presence of Jeff Mathis, the Angels could take the hit of losing half their catching platoon.
Jared Weaver would instantly be the Ace of the staff, but if the Angels turn it down, Ervin Santana would be a nice replacement. He has loads of talent, but lacks consistancy and has top-of-the-rotation stuff.
TEXAS RANGERS
Due to money issues, the Rangers may not even get involved. But, if they do, it will rise the price up for everyone due to their impressive dearth of prospects.
First, you target a catcher. the Rangers have a surplus with both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. Both had bad 2009 seasons, but have plenty of talent. Teagarden has the pwer advantage and is the better defender, so I say edge Teagarden.
Julio Borbon would be a great addition. He has blazing speed, so he could patroll CF.
For a starter, I would target Derek Holland or Tommy Hunter. Holland was a former top prospect, while Hunter kind-of came out of nowhere last season.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Phillies really don't have any pieces that fit into what I think the Jays need. They could offer top prospects Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown plus Kyle Drabek. I would rather not take unproven prospects in return. Next.
NEW YORK METS
This is where I started to get creative. There is 1 player who I would love to acquire on the Mets. That player is David Wright. Acquiring Wright would require a long-term contract between Halladay and the Mets.
The Jays would give the Mets Halladay and Edwin Encarnacion. The Mets would trade Wright and Jon Niese. This is highly unlikely, but I'm sure the Jays would love to aquire a middle-of-the-order bat at a position that they have no minor league depth at.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
I would love to aquire Colby Rasmus and Brendan Ryan. Rasmus would push Wells to RF and Ryan would be an excellent SS option. That is not enough, so David Freese could be added is and the Jays could send the Cardinals Edwin Encarnacion.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
This is another team that I would love to get involved. Now, I understand that Clayton Kershaw is not happening.
I want Russell Martin and Chad Billingsley. Have them include Chin-Lung Hu, a good glove SS.
You could also add on pieces from both sides. An OF prospect to Toronto and C JP Arencibia to the Dodgers.
Martin would be a great addition (and not just because he's Canadian). He provides good on-base skills, is an excellent catcher, and is a better hitter than he showed last season.
Billingsley seems to have lost the confiedence of management, but is still a great young arm with Ace stuff.
COLORADO ROCKIES
This one is crazy, but it is worth writing down.
Roy Halladay (with extension) and prospects (which could include Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens if you can convice the Rockies that they still have all the potential of a first round pick) for Troy Tulowitzki and either Carlos Gonzalez or Dexter Fowler.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Friday, November 13, 2009
Examining The Free Agent Market
It has been what feel like forever since I put anything up on this blog. Well, I am finally ready to start looking forward to 2010.
With some recent smart pick-ups and the free agent filings, the Jays 40-man roster sits at 36, not including Shaun Marcum, who sits on the 60-Day DL and will need to be added on. So, let's call it an uneven 37.
Departing since my last update are C Rod Barajas, SS Marco Scutaro, SS John McDonald, and 1B Kevin Millar.
Arriving are LHP Sean Henn, 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir, and IF Mike McCoy.
Hoffpauir and McCoy could make for some fine utility infielders next season and Sean Henn could make for a decent 3rd lefty out of the penn if needed.
I expect to see Jose Bautista either traded or non-tendered as well, leaving another roster spot.
Recently, it seems that the Jays would love to get rid of Lyle Overbay. I don't know why. I mean, who else would be better to help Adam Lind turn into a respectable 1B? It's not like the Jays are loaded with above average players.
So, assuming that Overbay is gone and Lind is installed as the 1B, the Jays will either be going with Dopirak and Ruiz as DH or importing one in.
They will also need some semblance of a SS, unless anyone thinks Angel Sanchez could be the answer.
A solid defensive RF would also be a great addition, allowing Snider to play LF.
I am about to drop some knowedge on what I would do if I was continuing this build.
Catcher
The Jays need a good defensive catcher who doesn't embarass himself at the plate. In my opinion, an OBP less than .260 is embarassing, no matter how many HR someone hits.
I would love to bring in a youngish catcher who is underappreciated by his current team, like AJ Ellis from the Dodgers, who posted a .400+ OBP in AAA last season.
It would also be nice if a Halladay trade brought in a proven youngish catcher. Maybe Mike Napoli or Russell Martin.
My top free agent options are Brian Schneider, Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez, and Josh Bard. Bard would splitt with Raul Chavez 50-50, while the others would play about 70% of the time.
If Arencibia gets off to a good start in AAA and shows some improved defense, he should be used in Toronto from June onward.
Short Stop
Again, it would be very nice if the Jays could bring back a good SS in a Halladay trade, like Erick Aybar.
You could also target young great glove SS with questionable bats. Chin-Lung Hu is a guy who immediately springs to mind. As long as the targets can get on-base and play really solid defense, anything they hit will be a bonus.
If you want to look at some free agent options, I would love to target Adam Everett, Alex Gonzalez, or reclamation types like Bobby Crosby or Khalil Greene. As long as you don't pay more than $2M.
Right Field
This is interesting, because a year ago, I had a thought that Rick Ankiel would be a nice piece to add if they were closer to contending. Well, the Jays aren't closer, but Ankiel had a god awful season. This could put him in the Jays range for a potential piece if the price is right. He is a very good defensive OF and has a connon for an arm. He also has exceptional power and could really help the team. He could even play CF with Wells moving into RF if Cito has enough ball-sack.
Again, you could always acquire a young piece in a Halladay trade, either in CF or RF. No names pop into mind, but if talks start heating up, I will look into what each team could offer. Michael Taylor in Philly would be a fantastic get. Maybe a prospect for prospect trade where the Jays send over a couple top prospects at areas of need for Philly.
Another potential low-risk pick-up is Austin Kearns. He plays a fine OF and has some power. Xavier Nady should also be looked into.
Other Options
I personally would love to see Adam Lind in LF, Travis Snider in RF, Randy Ruiz at DH and Brian Dopirak at 1B and just watch a tank job so awesome that it potentially be a positive. What is Ruiz can hit 30 HR+ in a full season? What if Dopirak can slam 30 HR? It certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.
But, if they decide to import a DH, guys like Jim THome or Jason Giambi could be low cost veteran bats.
Maybe the Jays will bring in a couple veteran arms for insurance on the kids if Halladay is dealt. I would look into wife-beater Brett Myers if he is willing to start. Justin Duchsherer would also be a good target.
A couple names I see as free agents that are interesting are Tyler Herron, a former top pick with St. Louis, who is still young enough to have potential. He could be a good pick-up for any team smart enough to take a chance. I also think Rich Harden would be a fantastic addition, and not just because he is Canadian. he is still young, and pitching for a building team, he will be able to miss a couple starts here and there if something feels off.
I also wouldn't be against picking up a couple waiver pick-ups or Rule 5 picks when the time comes and actually keep them. Maybe you strike gold with a Dan Uggla or Everth Cabrera. It is worth a shot, because almost every year a Rule 5 guy proves that all you need is a chance.
Why pay a veteran $1M+ to do a job that some kid will do better for league minimum?
Take chances.
With some recent smart pick-ups and the free agent filings, the Jays 40-man roster sits at 36, not including Shaun Marcum, who sits on the 60-Day DL and will need to be added on. So, let's call it an uneven 37.
Departing since my last update are C Rod Barajas, SS Marco Scutaro, SS John McDonald, and 1B Kevin Millar.
Arriving are LHP Sean Henn, 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir, and IF Mike McCoy.
Hoffpauir and McCoy could make for some fine utility infielders next season and Sean Henn could make for a decent 3rd lefty out of the penn if needed.
I expect to see Jose Bautista either traded or non-tendered as well, leaving another roster spot.
Recently, it seems that the Jays would love to get rid of Lyle Overbay. I don't know why. I mean, who else would be better to help Adam Lind turn into a respectable 1B? It's not like the Jays are loaded with above average players.
So, assuming that Overbay is gone and Lind is installed as the 1B, the Jays will either be going with Dopirak and Ruiz as DH or importing one in.
They will also need some semblance of a SS, unless anyone thinks Angel Sanchez could be the answer.
A solid defensive RF would also be a great addition, allowing Snider to play LF.
I am about to drop some knowedge on what I would do if I was continuing this build.
Catcher
The Jays need a good defensive catcher who doesn't embarass himself at the plate. In my opinion, an OBP less than .260 is embarassing, no matter how many HR someone hits.
I would love to bring in a youngish catcher who is underappreciated by his current team, like AJ Ellis from the Dodgers, who posted a .400+ OBP in AAA last season.
It would also be nice if a Halladay trade brought in a proven youngish catcher. Maybe Mike Napoli or Russell Martin.
My top free agent options are Brian Schneider, Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez, and Josh Bard. Bard would splitt with Raul Chavez 50-50, while the others would play about 70% of the time.
If Arencibia gets off to a good start in AAA and shows some improved defense, he should be used in Toronto from June onward.
Short Stop
Again, it would be very nice if the Jays could bring back a good SS in a Halladay trade, like Erick Aybar.
You could also target young great glove SS with questionable bats. Chin-Lung Hu is a guy who immediately springs to mind. As long as the targets can get on-base and play really solid defense, anything they hit will be a bonus.
If you want to look at some free agent options, I would love to target Adam Everett, Alex Gonzalez, or reclamation types like Bobby Crosby or Khalil Greene. As long as you don't pay more than $2M.
Right Field
This is interesting, because a year ago, I had a thought that Rick Ankiel would be a nice piece to add if they were closer to contending. Well, the Jays aren't closer, but Ankiel had a god awful season. This could put him in the Jays range for a potential piece if the price is right. He is a very good defensive OF and has a connon for an arm. He also has exceptional power and could really help the team. He could even play CF with Wells moving into RF if Cito has enough ball-sack.
Again, you could always acquire a young piece in a Halladay trade, either in CF or RF. No names pop into mind, but if talks start heating up, I will look into what each team could offer. Michael Taylor in Philly would be a fantastic get. Maybe a prospect for prospect trade where the Jays send over a couple top prospects at areas of need for Philly.
Another potential low-risk pick-up is Austin Kearns. He plays a fine OF and has some power. Xavier Nady should also be looked into.
Other Options
I personally would love to see Adam Lind in LF, Travis Snider in RF, Randy Ruiz at DH and Brian Dopirak at 1B and just watch a tank job so awesome that it potentially be a positive. What is Ruiz can hit 30 HR+ in a full season? What if Dopirak can slam 30 HR? It certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.
But, if they decide to import a DH, guys like Jim THome or Jason Giambi could be low cost veteran bats.
Maybe the Jays will bring in a couple veteran arms for insurance on the kids if Halladay is dealt. I would look into wife-beater Brett Myers if he is willing to start. Justin Duchsherer would also be a good target.
A couple names I see as free agents that are interesting are Tyler Herron, a former top pick with St. Louis, who is still young enough to have potential. He could be a good pick-up for any team smart enough to take a chance. I also think Rich Harden would be a fantastic addition, and not just because he is Canadian. he is still young, and pitching for a building team, he will be able to miss a couple starts here and there if something feels off.
I also wouldn't be against picking up a couple waiver pick-ups or Rule 5 picks when the time comes and actually keep them. Maybe you strike gold with a Dan Uggla or Everth Cabrera. It is worth a shot, because almost every year a Rule 5 guy proves that all you need is a chance.
Why pay a veteran $1M+ to do a job that some kid will do better for league minimum?
Take chances.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Off-Season Preview: THE Toronto Blue Jays
So, after a pretty awesome 1st round of playoffs, I have decided to use some free time previously alloted to watching kick-ass playoff baseball to go over some numbers for the AL East and their payroll situations headin into the offseason.
I have been keeping an excel spreadsheet of the AL East teams' payroll commitments for about 3 season now, and it come in very handy when I need to find out how many years a certain player has left on his deal, or when he hits arbitration. I use Cots Baseball Contracts like a bible. Now, they have also put spreadsheets together for every team, giving me even more detail.
So, onto the outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Payroll for the 2009 season was between $75M and $80M. Including arbitration raises (which I have estimated, probably generously, in the players favour), I have the payroll at around $80M with the players on board. The 2008 payroll was almost $100M and there have been reports and thoughts that the payroll could reach as high as about $120M if there was a clear direction for how it was used.
I think the Jays will probably stick to about a $75M limit, and consider this season more of a rebuilding year.
To get down to that number, a few moves must be made. Trading Halladay drops the estimated payroll to about $65M. Non-tendering Jose Bautista eliminates another $3M. And if Brian Tallet or Jeremy Accardo are dealt, that is another estimated $2M. And Lyle Overbay's $7M could be traded as well. As could Edwin Encarnacion's $4.75M.
All of that is unlikely though, so let's look at the breakdown.
Pitchers:
Starters:
Roy Halladay - $15.75M
Shaun Marcum - Estimated $1.5M
Ricky Romero - Estimated $450,000
Brett Cecil - Estimated $450,000
Marc Rzepczynski - Estimated $450,000
David Purcey - Estimated $450,000
Scott Richmond - Estimated $450,000
Fabio Castro - Estimated $400,000
INJURED:
Jesse Litsch - Estimated $450,000
Dustin McGowan - Estimated $600,000
Relievers:
Scott Downs - $4M
Jason Frasor - Estimated $2.5M
Brian Tallet - Estimated 1.75M
Jeremy Accard0 - Estimated $1.5M
Shawn Camp - Estimated $1.25M
Brandon League - Estimated $1.25M
Casey Janssen - Estimated $450,000
Brian Wolfe - Estimated $450,000
Josh Roenicke - Estimated $450,000
Dirk Hayhurst - Estimated $450,000
Jesse Carlson - Estimated $450,000
DEAD MONEY:
B.J. Ryan - $10M
The pitching staff has about $40M commited to it for 2010. The Jays could probably trade 2 starters and have comfortable depth remaining. If Tallet is a starting candidate, than he is another trade candidate. With plenty of bullpen depth, some of the more expensive guys should be shopped. Downs and Accardo are both guys I expect to get offered around.
If all the pitchers stay internal (not a terrible idea during a rebuild), this is how the team could look minus Tallet, Downs, and Accardo (which would save about $7M).
SP
1. Halladay
2. Romero
3. Marcum
4. Rzep
5. Cecil/Purcey/Richmond
Bullpen
CL. Frasor
LHP. Carlson
LHP. Cecil/Castro/Purcey
RHP. Camp
RHP. League
RHP. Janssen
RHP. Roenicke/Hayhurst/Richmond/Wolfe
Position Players
With so many free agents, a lot of the positon players are yet to be determined.
C - Raul Chavez and J.P. Arencibia are the two option in house. Chavez is elligible for arbitration (I think. I can't get a legit answer anywhere) and is not an ideal starter on even the worst teams, while Arencibia is Barajas lite. I expect at least 1 catcher to be signed.
1B - Lyle Overbay ($7M) is somewho I imagine the Jays would try and trade. He plays great defense and hits righties very well, but is overpayed and is no longer an everyday player due to his struggles against lefties. There are few teams that would be willing to acquire all of Overbay, but that will be a focus for Anthopoulos in my eyes.
If Overbay is traded, that allows to Jays some flexibility. They could try Adam Lind (a 1B in college) or Randy Ruiz (a DH who has played 1B in the minors) or even try Brian Dopirak (former top prospect who has mashed in AA/AAA the last 2 seasons).
2B - Aaron Hill ($4M in 2010). Joe Inglett (Estimated league minimum in 2010) is an option for the utility role.
3B - Edwin Encarnacion ($4.75M). In an ideal world, Encarnacion is dealt away. He is just not a good player. He is a little above average in his career with the bat, but his defense is kind of terrible. With a young staff of pitchers, you need a good defense and as we all saw with Scott Rolen, a good defender is pretty neccessary. If dealt, there are few in house options to replace him. Jose Bautista (Estimated $3M in 2010) could be a candidate, but his defense isn't great and a non-tender candidate himself.
SS - No in house options.
OF - Vernon Wells ($16M+ in 2010) is an unmovable contract, and the Jays will have to hope for a turnaround closer to his previous numbers. Adam Lind and Travis Snider (estimated league minimum in 2010) are possibilities for the corners, but both are below average defenders in that situation. Snider seems to be an average fielder, while Lind is pretty terrible. In house OF Buck Coats is a candidtate for 4th/5th OF.
In a perfect world, Overbay and Encarnacion are traded and Bautista is non-tendered, which would shed $14M and give the team some flexibility to go out and overpay for a couple hitters to beef up the line-up this season and in the future.
This could be an exciting off-season for Jays fans, as there could be mass changes to the team on the field and off.
I look forward to an exciting off-season.
I have been keeping an excel spreadsheet of the AL East teams' payroll commitments for about 3 season now, and it come in very handy when I need to find out how many years a certain player has left on his deal, or when he hits arbitration. I use Cots Baseball Contracts like a bible. Now, they have also put spreadsheets together for every team, giving me even more detail.
So, onto the outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Payroll for the 2009 season was between $75M and $80M. Including arbitration raises (which I have estimated, probably generously, in the players favour), I have the payroll at around $80M with the players on board. The 2008 payroll was almost $100M and there have been reports and thoughts that the payroll could reach as high as about $120M if there was a clear direction for how it was used.
I think the Jays will probably stick to about a $75M limit, and consider this season more of a rebuilding year.
To get down to that number, a few moves must be made. Trading Halladay drops the estimated payroll to about $65M. Non-tendering Jose Bautista eliminates another $3M. And if Brian Tallet or Jeremy Accardo are dealt, that is another estimated $2M. And Lyle Overbay's $7M could be traded as well. As could Edwin Encarnacion's $4.75M.
All of that is unlikely though, so let's look at the breakdown.
Pitchers:
Starters:
Roy Halladay - $15.75M
Shaun Marcum - Estimated $1.5M
Ricky Romero - Estimated $450,000
Brett Cecil - Estimated $450,000
Marc Rzepczynski - Estimated $450,000
David Purcey - Estimated $450,000
Scott Richmond - Estimated $450,000
Fabio Castro - Estimated $400,000
INJURED:
Jesse Litsch - Estimated $450,000
Dustin McGowan - Estimated $600,000
Relievers:
Scott Downs - $4M
Jason Frasor - Estimated $2.5M
Brian Tallet - Estimated 1.75M
Jeremy Accard0 - Estimated $1.5M
Shawn Camp - Estimated $1.25M
Brandon League - Estimated $1.25M
Casey Janssen - Estimated $450,000
Brian Wolfe - Estimated $450,000
Josh Roenicke - Estimated $450,000
Dirk Hayhurst - Estimated $450,000
Jesse Carlson - Estimated $450,000
DEAD MONEY:
B.J. Ryan - $10M
The pitching staff has about $40M commited to it for 2010. The Jays could probably trade 2 starters and have comfortable depth remaining. If Tallet is a starting candidate, than he is another trade candidate. With plenty of bullpen depth, some of the more expensive guys should be shopped. Downs and Accardo are both guys I expect to get offered around.
If all the pitchers stay internal (not a terrible idea during a rebuild), this is how the team could look minus Tallet, Downs, and Accardo (which would save about $7M).
SP
1. Halladay
2. Romero
3. Marcum
4. Rzep
5. Cecil/Purcey/Richmond
Bullpen
CL. Frasor
LHP. Carlson
LHP. Cecil/Castro/Purcey
RHP. Camp
RHP. League
RHP. Janssen
RHP. Roenicke/Hayhurst/Richmond/Wolfe
Position Players
With so many free agents, a lot of the positon players are yet to be determined.
C - Raul Chavez and J.P. Arencibia are the two option in house. Chavez is elligible for arbitration (I think. I can't get a legit answer anywhere) and is not an ideal starter on even the worst teams, while Arencibia is Barajas lite. I expect at least 1 catcher to be signed.
1B - Lyle Overbay ($7M) is somewho I imagine the Jays would try and trade. He plays great defense and hits righties very well, but is overpayed and is no longer an everyday player due to his struggles against lefties. There are few teams that would be willing to acquire all of Overbay, but that will be a focus for Anthopoulos in my eyes.
If Overbay is traded, that allows to Jays some flexibility. They could try Adam Lind (a 1B in college) or Randy Ruiz (a DH who has played 1B in the minors) or even try Brian Dopirak (former top prospect who has mashed in AA/AAA the last 2 seasons).
2B - Aaron Hill ($4M in 2010). Joe Inglett (Estimated league minimum in 2010) is an option for the utility role.
3B - Edwin Encarnacion ($4.75M). In an ideal world, Encarnacion is dealt away. He is just not a good player. He is a little above average in his career with the bat, but his defense is kind of terrible. With a young staff of pitchers, you need a good defense and as we all saw with Scott Rolen, a good defender is pretty neccessary. If dealt, there are few in house options to replace him. Jose Bautista (Estimated $3M in 2010) could be a candidate, but his defense isn't great and a non-tender candidate himself.
SS - No in house options.
OF - Vernon Wells ($16M+ in 2010) is an unmovable contract, and the Jays will have to hope for a turnaround closer to his previous numbers. Adam Lind and Travis Snider (estimated league minimum in 2010) are possibilities for the corners, but both are below average defenders in that situation. Snider seems to be an average fielder, while Lind is pretty terrible. In house OF Buck Coats is a candidtate for 4th/5th OF.
In a perfect world, Overbay and Encarnacion are traded and Bautista is non-tendered, which would shed $14M and give the team some flexibility to go out and overpay for a couple hitters to beef up the line-up this season and in the future.
This could be an exciting off-season for Jays fans, as there could be mass changes to the team on the field and off.
I look forward to an exciting off-season.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Playoff Preview: Red Sox vs Angels
Pitching
Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey. I like this match-up, especially in Los Angeles. This is too even to call when just looking at the starters. Should be a fantastic game.
Game 2:
Josh Beckett vs Jered Weaver. Even dealing with injuries all season, you have to like Beckett in the playoffs. He has been stellar in October for most of his career. Weaver is a really good pitcher, but not on Beckett's level.
Game 3:
Clay Buchholz vs Scott Kazmir. This should be interting. Buchholz has been inconsistant and Kazmir has been really shakey this season. I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one.
Game 4:
Daisuke Matsusaka vs Joe Saunders. I don't like the back-to-back lefties starting for LA, especially with the monster at Fenway. I think it will be a big mistake using lefties in both Fenway games.
Game 5:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey.
Bullpen
From the right side, Jon Papelbon will close out games, while Dan Bard, Takashi Saito, and Ramon Ramirez will help bridge the gap. Lefties Billy Wagner and Hideki Okajima will have the taks of retiring Bobby Abreu and turning around Kenry Morales. Paul Byrd is available for a long relief role.
Lefty Brian Fuentes is the closer, and will be helped by Darren Oliver from the left side, who will have the task of putting away J.D. Drew and David Ortiz. The right-handers are Kevin Jepson, Jason Bulger, Matt Palmer (who will be the long-man), and starter Erivn Santana. The test will be Santana, who has amazing stuff, but has never been in high leverage relief situations before.
I have to give the edge to the Red Sox, as the top righty arms for the Angels (Bulger and Jepson) have had some duribility questions recently and may not be 100%. Even if they were, the depth in Boston's bullpen is outstanding.
Positionally:
Catcher
Victor Martinez vs Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis. V-Mart was probably the best mid-season pick-up in the AL, and has given the Red Sox a strength at a position that was a weakness. Napoli and Mathis form a very nice tandem, with Napoli being kind of an Adam Dunn lite, with the power and walks. Mathis is a fantastic defensive catcher, and when he is in the running game should be limited.
First Base
Kevin Youkilis/Casey Kotchman vs Kenry Morales. When Youk is playing 1B, the Sox probably have the edge, but not by much. Morales has been an MVP candidate this season and has really stepped up and replaced Mark Teixeira. When Youk plays 3B, the Angels have a big advantage. Kotchman is a very good glove man.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia vs Howie Kendrick/Maicer Izturis. Edge to the Sox either way. Kendrick has been pretty bad with the bat this season and has never been anything special with the glove, so Izturis could use his stellar defense to take starts away from Kendrick.
Third Base
Mike Lowell/Kevin Youkilis vs Chone Figgins. I love Figgins. Huge man-crush. But, if Youk is starting at 3B, they have the edge. If Lowell starts at 3B, which I don't think he should, than the Angels have a nice advantage. Lowell always seems to be sore and is not half the fielder he was even 2 seasons ago.
Short Stop
Alex Gonzalez vs Erick Aybar. Gonzalez is probably the better fielder, but Aybar is pretty dangerous offensive player with his speed and contact ability. I would have to give the edge to the Angels.
Left Field
Jason Bay vs Juan Rivera. Advantage Red Sox. Both are below average in the field, but Bay is the better hitter.
Centre Field
Jacoby Ellsbury vs Torii Hunter. This one is really close, as they are such different players. Both are excellent fielders, but do it in different ways. Ellsbury uses his speed to trakc down flies, while Hunter seems to glide after getting fantistic reads off the bat. Offensively, Hunter is a power hitter, while Ellsbury is a singles/gap hitter who steals a bunch of bases. Total package, I have to go with Hunter.
Right Field
J.D. Drew vs Bobby Abreu. Both are actually pretty similar, being patient hitters with mediocre defense. Abreu has always been awalk machine and I have always thought he was underrated. I have to give the edge to the Angels.
Designated Hitter
David Ortiz vs Vladimir Guerrero. 5 years ago, this is a fantastic match-up between 2 of the games very best hitters. Vlad is still a good hitter, but his power has been sapped a bit and he can no longer play the field due to injuries. Ortiz started brutally this season, but has been solid since lighting up Brett Cecil. Tough choice, and I could flip flop on this but I like Ortiz a little more, only because it is the playoffs.
Bench
Jason Varitek will back-up V-Mart, won't see anything more than inning or 2 and only if V-Mart gets pinch ran for. Casey Kotchman should get a couple starts, and is a solid hitter and a great fielder. Jed Lowrie may get a start a SS, but should see a little time regardless as he is a better hitter (slightly) than Gonzalez. Brian Anderson and Joey Gathright will be the back-up OF and pinch runners. Anderson is a great fielder, and should see some defensive time and maybe a start against a lefty in RF. Gathright is their Dave Roberts and will probably be limited to pinch running and defensive replacement status.
Bobby Wilson is here for moral support and for emergancies late in games after both other catchers have been used. Maicer Izturis is a solid middle infield option and should see a couple starts at 2B. Robb Quinlann is good against lefties and can play 3B, 1B, and the corner OF. Gary Matthews Jr. is a good defender and could be used late in close games in LF for Rivera. Reggie Willits is most likely only here to pinch run.
I give the bench advantage to the Red Sox.
Verdict:
I have to say that I think the Red Sox will out-pitch the Angels and take the series in 5 games.
Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey. I like this match-up, especially in Los Angeles. This is too even to call when just looking at the starters. Should be a fantastic game.
Game 2:
Josh Beckett vs Jered Weaver. Even dealing with injuries all season, you have to like Beckett in the playoffs. He has been stellar in October for most of his career. Weaver is a really good pitcher, but not on Beckett's level.
Game 3:
Clay Buchholz vs Scott Kazmir. This should be interting. Buchholz has been inconsistant and Kazmir has been really shakey this season. I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one.
Game 4:
Daisuke Matsusaka vs Joe Saunders. I don't like the back-to-back lefties starting for LA, especially with the monster at Fenway. I think it will be a big mistake using lefties in both Fenway games.
Game 5:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey.
Bullpen
From the right side, Jon Papelbon will close out games, while Dan Bard, Takashi Saito, and Ramon Ramirez will help bridge the gap. Lefties Billy Wagner and Hideki Okajima will have the taks of retiring Bobby Abreu and turning around Kenry Morales. Paul Byrd is available for a long relief role.
Lefty Brian Fuentes is the closer, and will be helped by Darren Oliver from the left side, who will have the task of putting away J.D. Drew and David Ortiz. The right-handers are Kevin Jepson, Jason Bulger, Matt Palmer (who will be the long-man), and starter Erivn Santana. The test will be Santana, who has amazing stuff, but has never been in high leverage relief situations before.
I have to give the edge to the Red Sox, as the top righty arms for the Angels (Bulger and Jepson) have had some duribility questions recently and may not be 100%. Even if they were, the depth in Boston's bullpen is outstanding.
Positionally:
Catcher
Victor Martinez vs Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis. V-Mart was probably the best mid-season pick-up in the AL, and has given the Red Sox a strength at a position that was a weakness. Napoli and Mathis form a very nice tandem, with Napoli being kind of an Adam Dunn lite, with the power and walks. Mathis is a fantastic defensive catcher, and when he is in the running game should be limited.
First Base
Kevin Youkilis/Casey Kotchman vs Kenry Morales. When Youk is playing 1B, the Sox probably have the edge, but not by much. Morales has been an MVP candidate this season and has really stepped up and replaced Mark Teixeira. When Youk plays 3B, the Angels have a big advantage. Kotchman is a very good glove man.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia vs Howie Kendrick/Maicer Izturis. Edge to the Sox either way. Kendrick has been pretty bad with the bat this season and has never been anything special with the glove, so Izturis could use his stellar defense to take starts away from Kendrick.
Third Base
Mike Lowell/Kevin Youkilis vs Chone Figgins. I love Figgins. Huge man-crush. But, if Youk is starting at 3B, they have the edge. If Lowell starts at 3B, which I don't think he should, than the Angels have a nice advantage. Lowell always seems to be sore and is not half the fielder he was even 2 seasons ago.
Short Stop
Alex Gonzalez vs Erick Aybar. Gonzalez is probably the better fielder, but Aybar is pretty dangerous offensive player with his speed and contact ability. I would have to give the edge to the Angels.
Left Field
Jason Bay vs Juan Rivera. Advantage Red Sox. Both are below average in the field, but Bay is the better hitter.
Centre Field
Jacoby Ellsbury vs Torii Hunter. This one is really close, as they are such different players. Both are excellent fielders, but do it in different ways. Ellsbury uses his speed to trakc down flies, while Hunter seems to glide after getting fantistic reads off the bat. Offensively, Hunter is a power hitter, while Ellsbury is a singles/gap hitter who steals a bunch of bases. Total package, I have to go with Hunter.
Right Field
J.D. Drew vs Bobby Abreu. Both are actually pretty similar, being patient hitters with mediocre defense. Abreu has always been awalk machine and I have always thought he was underrated. I have to give the edge to the Angels.
Designated Hitter
David Ortiz vs Vladimir Guerrero. 5 years ago, this is a fantastic match-up between 2 of the games very best hitters. Vlad is still a good hitter, but his power has been sapped a bit and he can no longer play the field due to injuries. Ortiz started brutally this season, but has been solid since lighting up Brett Cecil. Tough choice, and I could flip flop on this but I like Ortiz a little more, only because it is the playoffs.
Bench
Jason Varitek will back-up V-Mart, won't see anything more than inning or 2 and only if V-Mart gets pinch ran for. Casey Kotchman should get a couple starts, and is a solid hitter and a great fielder. Jed Lowrie may get a start a SS, but should see a little time regardless as he is a better hitter (slightly) than Gonzalez. Brian Anderson and Joey Gathright will be the back-up OF and pinch runners. Anderson is a great fielder, and should see some defensive time and maybe a start against a lefty in RF. Gathright is their Dave Roberts and will probably be limited to pinch running and defensive replacement status.
Bobby Wilson is here for moral support and for emergancies late in games after both other catchers have been used. Maicer Izturis is a solid middle infield option and should see a couple starts at 2B. Robb Quinlann is good against lefties and can play 3B, 1B, and the corner OF. Gary Matthews Jr. is a good defender and could be used late in close games in LF for Rivera. Reggie Willits is most likely only here to pinch run.
I give the bench advantage to the Red Sox.
Verdict:
I have to say that I think the Red Sox will out-pitch the Angels and take the series in 5 games.
Playoff Preview: Cardinals vs Dodgers
Even though game 1 is in the books, in favour of the Dodgers, I still feel the need to post this. So, here I go.
Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Chris Carpenter vs Randy Wolf. On paper, this should've clear advantage St. Louis. Carp is a Cy candidate, while Wolf is a 30+ year old making his first playoff start in his career. The bullpens were used pretty early, even though both starters were pretty solid. The Dodgers won.
Game 2:
Adam Wainwright vs Clayton Kershaw. Fuck, I wish I could watch this game. This match-up is incredible. I love watching Kershaw pitch, his stuff is out of this world. And Wainwright has been amazing this season, and is a real contender for the Cy. I think Pujols will have a good game today, so that leaves me thinking the Cardinals even up this series.
Game 3:
Joel Pinero vs Vincente Padilla. I don't get the decision not to go with Billingsley here. Padilla is not that good, and the Cardinals will probably show that. Pinero, meanwhile, is a groundball machine, and should do just fine. Game Cardinals.
Game 4:
Kyle Lohse/John Smoltz vs Billingsley?. If it is Billingley, I take the Dodgers. If they push up Wolf, then go Cardinals.
Game 5:
Carpenter/Wainwright vs Wolf/Kershaw. Good match-up either way.
Positionally:
Catcher
Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin. As good as Martin can be, Yadier has been pretty awesome. His arm is unbelievable, which could stop the running game dead for Furcal and Pierre. On the other side, Martin has been underwhelming the last 2 seasons and no one is sure if this is his true level of play. Advantage Cardinals.
First Base
Albert Pujols vs James Loney. Pujols is the best player in baseball. While Loney is a good hitter, he doesn't have much power. Both are fantastic defensively.
Second Base
Skip Shumaker vs Ronnie Belliard/Orlando Hudson. Another bad decision by the Dodgers decision makers. Hudson should be starting, as he is better on both sides than Belliard is. Shumaker is a good hitter and has some speed, but is still pretty new to 2B. He still may be a better defender than Belliard, but not Hudson, who is top class. Edge to the Cards if Belliard remains, to the Dodgers if Hudson takes over.
Third Base
Mark DeRosa vs Casey Blake. This is pretty even. Blake has more power, while DeRosa is the better overall hitter. He also fields a little better than Blake. Advantage Cardinals.
Short Stop
Brendan Ryan vs Rafael Furcal. Ryan is a good glove man, but he is not much with the stick. Furcal is a really good player, and has a cannon for an arm. He is also a pretty dangerous offensive player, using his speed really well. Advantage Dodgers.
Left Field
Matt Holliday vs Manny Ramirez. What a duo. Holliday has been outstanding since becoming a Cardinal, and is a far superior defensive LF and can steal some bases. Ramirez is in a class of his with the stick, and brings a lightness to the Dodgers. Slight advantage to the Dodgers.
Centre Field
Colby Rasmus vs Matt Kemp. There is something very special about Matt Kemp. The kid is gifted with something extremely rare with his power and speed combo. He also fields CF very well. Rasmus is no sloutch, but he can't hold a candle to Kemp. Advantage Dodgers.
Right Field
Ryan Ludwick/Rick Ankiel vs Andre Ethier. What an OF the Dodgers have. Ethier has been a beast this season and is showing that he can be an elite player. He reminds me of Adam Lind, but with very good defense. Ludwick has been a bit of a disappointment after his big season last year, and Ankiel may start against righties. Advantage Dodgers.
Bench
Jason LaRue probably won't play much, unless Molina goes down. Troy Glaus is a nice option to pinch hit late in games. Julio Lugo really played well when going to St. Louis mid-season, and brings some speed and a solid bat off the bench. Joe Thurston is a speedy utility player who can handle the bat pretty well, and is the 5th OF on the team. Rick Ankiel will sit the majority of the series, but is a nice pinch hitting option.
Brad Ausmus is a nice back-up option with his experience and his really good defense. Juan Castro is a great glove man, but is unneccessary on this team, as they have good defenders up the middle. Orlando Hudson should be starting, but is not, so he becomes a great option off the bench. Mark Loretta is nice hitter, and plays a fundamental game. Jim Thome, a great mid-season pick-up, is here to provide serious power off the bench. Juan Pierre is an amazing 4th OF, and his speed could be a huge factor similar to Dave Roberts in 2004 for Boston.
I think the advantage on the bench goes slightly to Los Angeles. The Cardinals have more pieces that I see being used in bigger roles, as Lugo could start at SS or 2B, and Ankiel could make an OF start. The Dodgers have clear cut starters, and their back-ups are really only pinch hitters, and maybe defensive replacements with the exception of Pierre. Juan Pierre is actually the differance maker for me, as his speed is game changing and he presents a great option late in games to play LF for Manny.
Bullpen
Righties Ryan Franklin, Blake Hawksworth, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, and Mitchell Boggs are all nice options at various points throughout the game and have outstanding beards. Lefties Trevor Miller and Dennys Reyes are both really nice options late in games, and their tasks are Andre Ethier and James Loney.
For the Dodgers, righties Ron Belisario, closer Jon Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, and long man Jeff Weaver is a great group. Lefties George Sherrill and Hong Kuo are also very good, although the lefties are scarse for the Cardinals.
I have to give the edge to the Dodgers, as they seem to have a better feel for how to use their guys in the best situations with a set plan. Torre is known for over working relievers into the ground (Scott Proctor,s arm is still sore), but he has enough really good arms to do the job.
Verdict:
I have to go with the Dodgers in this series. The offense is just too good, and since they have allready gotten past Carpenter, the only need to beat up on the back-end of the Cardinals rotation. Dodgers in 4.
Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Chris Carpenter vs Randy Wolf. On paper, this should've clear advantage St. Louis. Carp is a Cy candidate, while Wolf is a 30+ year old making his first playoff start in his career. The bullpens were used pretty early, even though both starters were pretty solid. The Dodgers won.
Game 2:
Adam Wainwright vs Clayton Kershaw. Fuck, I wish I could watch this game. This match-up is incredible. I love watching Kershaw pitch, his stuff is out of this world. And Wainwright has been amazing this season, and is a real contender for the Cy. I think Pujols will have a good game today, so that leaves me thinking the Cardinals even up this series.
Game 3:
Joel Pinero vs Vincente Padilla. I don't get the decision not to go with Billingsley here. Padilla is not that good, and the Cardinals will probably show that. Pinero, meanwhile, is a groundball machine, and should do just fine. Game Cardinals.
Game 4:
Kyle Lohse/John Smoltz vs Billingsley?. If it is Billingley, I take the Dodgers. If they push up Wolf, then go Cardinals.
Game 5:
Carpenter/Wainwright vs Wolf/Kershaw. Good match-up either way.
Positionally:
Catcher
Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin. As good as Martin can be, Yadier has been pretty awesome. His arm is unbelievable, which could stop the running game dead for Furcal and Pierre. On the other side, Martin has been underwhelming the last 2 seasons and no one is sure if this is his true level of play. Advantage Cardinals.
First Base
Albert Pujols vs James Loney. Pujols is the best player in baseball. While Loney is a good hitter, he doesn't have much power. Both are fantastic defensively.
Second Base
Skip Shumaker vs Ronnie Belliard/Orlando Hudson. Another bad decision by the Dodgers decision makers. Hudson should be starting, as he is better on both sides than Belliard is. Shumaker is a good hitter and has some speed, but is still pretty new to 2B. He still may be a better defender than Belliard, but not Hudson, who is top class. Edge to the Cards if Belliard remains, to the Dodgers if Hudson takes over.
Third Base
Mark DeRosa vs Casey Blake. This is pretty even. Blake has more power, while DeRosa is the better overall hitter. He also fields a little better than Blake. Advantage Cardinals.
Short Stop
Brendan Ryan vs Rafael Furcal. Ryan is a good glove man, but he is not much with the stick. Furcal is a really good player, and has a cannon for an arm. He is also a pretty dangerous offensive player, using his speed really well. Advantage Dodgers.
Left Field
Matt Holliday vs Manny Ramirez. What a duo. Holliday has been outstanding since becoming a Cardinal, and is a far superior defensive LF and can steal some bases. Ramirez is in a class of his with the stick, and brings a lightness to the Dodgers. Slight advantage to the Dodgers.
Centre Field
Colby Rasmus vs Matt Kemp. There is something very special about Matt Kemp. The kid is gifted with something extremely rare with his power and speed combo. He also fields CF very well. Rasmus is no sloutch, but he can't hold a candle to Kemp. Advantage Dodgers.
Right Field
Ryan Ludwick/Rick Ankiel vs Andre Ethier. What an OF the Dodgers have. Ethier has been a beast this season and is showing that he can be an elite player. He reminds me of Adam Lind, but with very good defense. Ludwick has been a bit of a disappointment after his big season last year, and Ankiel may start against righties. Advantage Dodgers.
Bench
Jason LaRue probably won't play much, unless Molina goes down. Troy Glaus is a nice option to pinch hit late in games. Julio Lugo really played well when going to St. Louis mid-season, and brings some speed and a solid bat off the bench. Joe Thurston is a speedy utility player who can handle the bat pretty well, and is the 5th OF on the team. Rick Ankiel will sit the majority of the series, but is a nice pinch hitting option.
Brad Ausmus is a nice back-up option with his experience and his really good defense. Juan Castro is a great glove man, but is unneccessary on this team, as they have good defenders up the middle. Orlando Hudson should be starting, but is not, so he becomes a great option off the bench. Mark Loretta is nice hitter, and plays a fundamental game. Jim Thome, a great mid-season pick-up, is here to provide serious power off the bench. Juan Pierre is an amazing 4th OF, and his speed could be a huge factor similar to Dave Roberts in 2004 for Boston.
I think the advantage on the bench goes slightly to Los Angeles. The Cardinals have more pieces that I see being used in bigger roles, as Lugo could start at SS or 2B, and Ankiel could make an OF start. The Dodgers have clear cut starters, and their back-ups are really only pinch hitters, and maybe defensive replacements with the exception of Pierre. Juan Pierre is actually the differance maker for me, as his speed is game changing and he presents a great option late in games to play LF for Manny.
Bullpen
Righties Ryan Franklin, Blake Hawksworth, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, and Mitchell Boggs are all nice options at various points throughout the game and have outstanding beards. Lefties Trevor Miller and Dennys Reyes are both really nice options late in games, and their tasks are Andre Ethier and James Loney.
For the Dodgers, righties Ron Belisario, closer Jon Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, and long man Jeff Weaver is a great group. Lefties George Sherrill and Hong Kuo are also very good, although the lefties are scarse for the Cardinals.
I have to give the edge to the Dodgers, as they seem to have a better feel for how to use their guys in the best situations with a set plan. Torre is known for over working relievers into the ground (Scott Proctor,s arm is still sore), but he has enough really good arms to do the job.
Verdict:
I have to go with the Dodgers in this series. The offense is just too good, and since they have allready gotten past Carpenter, the only need to beat up on the back-end of the Cardinals rotation. Dodgers in 4.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Playoff Preview: Yankees vs Twins
Starting Pitching
Game 1:
C.C. Sabathia vs Brian Duensing. With the use of hindsight, and common sense, the Yankees have the advantage. They won the game pretty easily and while Duensing was solid, Sabathia was very good.
Game 2:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. This should be a really good match-up, as they are pretty evenly matched when lookig at their 2009 numbers. I think Burnett will be brilliant and the Yankees should take this one.
Game 3:
Andy Pettitte vs Carl Pavano. I like the Twins in this match-up. I have a feeling about Pavano, and I think he will do just enough to get the win and give the Twins a little hope.
Game 4:
C.C. Sabathia vs Scott Baker. I want to go the Twins here, as I love when 1 game decides the series, but I cannot see the Twins being able to do enough off of Sabathia.
Game 5:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. If it gets this far, which I predict it won't, the Yankees are fucked. With Burnett's track record, if he is brilliant in game 2, he could be pretty bad in game 5 with all of the pressure on him. I hate the decision to put Burnett in this spot and not Pettitte.
Positionally:
Catcher
Jorge Posada vs Joe Mauer. This one is easy. Mauer is the best player in the American League. I truly believe that. Posada will sit with Burnett on the mound, making this even more one-sided offensively. Mauer is also one of the best defensive catchers in baseball as well.
First Base
Mark Teixeira vs Michael Cuddyer. The loss of Justin Morneau really hurts here, where he matches up with Teixeria pretty evenly. As good as Cuddyer has been down the stretch, he is not in Teixeira's league. Being a regular OF, he may have defensive questions as well, whereas Teixeira is one the best in baseball.
Second Base
Robinson Cano vs Nick Punto. Another no brainer. Cano is a very good player on both sides, and his offense is top 5 in baseball at his position. Punto is a defensive whiz with little bat. Clear edge to the Yankees.
Third Base
Alex Rodriguez vs Matt Tolbert. A-Rod is one of the greatest players in history and Matt Tolbert is a bench player. Tolbert is starting in place of injured Joe Crede, and has een pretty hot lately. But, that won't make the gap between the two any less wide. Another clear edge to the Yanks.
Short Stop
Derek Jeter vs Orlando Cabrera. This one is close than I would like to admit, as I am a pretty huge Jeter mark. O-Cab's defense is better, regardless of what Jeet's gold gloves have to say. The offense is a fair bit apart though, as Jeter is one the best hitters ever at SS and is still top 5-10 in baseball.
Left Field
Johnny Damon vs Delmon Young. Damon is still a fine player and both parks play really well for a lefty pull hitter. Defensively, Damon can still run down fly balls, but his arm has always been really week. In a way, Delmon is the anti-Damon, as he is a pure power hitting righty with a cannon for arm but a pea for a brain. He constantly misses cut-off men and can cost his team bases. I love Young's bat, but his raw power hasn't really shown itself in the Major Leagues yet. I give the edge, ever so slightly, to the fundamentally sound Johnny Damon.
Centre Field
Melky Cabrera vs Denard Span. As clutch as Melky has been this year, coming up with big hits on a few occasions, he is as overrated as it gets. His defense is not as good as some would lead you to believe, although his arm is pretty incredible. Denard Span is a great lead-off hitter, with patience and a good ability to get the head of the bat on the ball. His speed is also a pretty big advantage over Cabrera. Advantage Twins.
Right Field
Nick Swisher vs Jason Kubel. This is the closest battle, as both have a lot of power and pretty good batting eyes. Kubel is a better hitter for average, while Swish is tremendous at getting on-base by any means neccessary. Defensively, Swish probably has the edge, but not by too much.
Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui vs Brendan Harris. Matsui is clearly better, as he was one of the DH's in the American League this season. End of discussion.
Bench
Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli are both on the roster, providing options for pinch running late in close games. Jerry Hairston Jr. and Eric Hinske were great mid-season pick-ups as both are very versitile and are pretty good hitters. Brett Gardner has blazing speed and should be a pest late in games pinch running and is a fine defensive CF.
Jose Morales and Mike Redmond both made the roster, as to allow Mauer to DH if they feel like going that route. Morales is a pretty decent hitter, while Redmond is a good defensive back-stop. Alexi Casilla is a solid defensive middle infielder and has a lot of speed for pinch running. Carlos Gomez is a terrific CF and has blazing speed, which should be available for pinch running.
I have to give the edge to the Yanks in bench depth and productivity. They have starters on the bench who are actually better than a couple of the Twins starters (Eric Hinske > Brendan Harris, Hairston Jr. > Nick Punto)
Bullpen
With only 3 starters needed, the Yanks are able to move Joba to the pen, which gives them 3 shut down righties. Rivera, Hughes, Joba, and David Robertson are all very effective righties. Marte and Coke bring it from the left side and will have the difficult task of shutting down Joe Mauer late in games. Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves are there for length.
The Twins bullpen is a different story. Joe Nathan is incredible, but he is only one man. He will have to be bridged by righties Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Bobby Keppel. Lefties Ron Mahay, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Mijares will have their hands full with Cano, Matsui, and switch hitters Swisher, Teixeira, and Posada.
I have to give the edge, by quite a margin, to the Yankees.
Verdict:
Yankees in 4 is my first choice. If there is a game 5, I go with the Twins.
Game 1:
C.C. Sabathia vs Brian Duensing. With the use of hindsight, and common sense, the Yankees have the advantage. They won the game pretty easily and while Duensing was solid, Sabathia was very good.
Game 2:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. This should be a really good match-up, as they are pretty evenly matched when lookig at their 2009 numbers. I think Burnett will be brilliant and the Yankees should take this one.
Game 3:
Andy Pettitte vs Carl Pavano. I like the Twins in this match-up. I have a feeling about Pavano, and I think he will do just enough to get the win and give the Twins a little hope.
Game 4:
C.C. Sabathia vs Scott Baker. I want to go the Twins here, as I love when 1 game decides the series, but I cannot see the Twins being able to do enough off of Sabathia.
Game 5:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. If it gets this far, which I predict it won't, the Yankees are fucked. With Burnett's track record, if he is brilliant in game 2, he could be pretty bad in game 5 with all of the pressure on him. I hate the decision to put Burnett in this spot and not Pettitte.
Positionally:
Catcher
Jorge Posada vs Joe Mauer. This one is easy. Mauer is the best player in the American League. I truly believe that. Posada will sit with Burnett on the mound, making this even more one-sided offensively. Mauer is also one of the best defensive catchers in baseball as well.
First Base
Mark Teixeira vs Michael Cuddyer. The loss of Justin Morneau really hurts here, where he matches up with Teixeria pretty evenly. As good as Cuddyer has been down the stretch, he is not in Teixeira's league. Being a regular OF, he may have defensive questions as well, whereas Teixeira is one the best in baseball.
Second Base
Robinson Cano vs Nick Punto. Another no brainer. Cano is a very good player on both sides, and his offense is top 5 in baseball at his position. Punto is a defensive whiz with little bat. Clear edge to the Yankees.
Third Base
Alex Rodriguez vs Matt Tolbert. A-Rod is one of the greatest players in history and Matt Tolbert is a bench player. Tolbert is starting in place of injured Joe Crede, and has een pretty hot lately. But, that won't make the gap between the two any less wide. Another clear edge to the Yanks.
Short Stop
Derek Jeter vs Orlando Cabrera. This one is close than I would like to admit, as I am a pretty huge Jeter mark. O-Cab's defense is better, regardless of what Jeet's gold gloves have to say. The offense is a fair bit apart though, as Jeter is one the best hitters ever at SS and is still top 5-10 in baseball.
Left Field
Johnny Damon vs Delmon Young. Damon is still a fine player and both parks play really well for a lefty pull hitter. Defensively, Damon can still run down fly balls, but his arm has always been really week. In a way, Delmon is the anti-Damon, as he is a pure power hitting righty with a cannon for arm but a pea for a brain. He constantly misses cut-off men and can cost his team bases. I love Young's bat, but his raw power hasn't really shown itself in the Major Leagues yet. I give the edge, ever so slightly, to the fundamentally sound Johnny Damon.
Centre Field
Melky Cabrera vs Denard Span. As clutch as Melky has been this year, coming up with big hits on a few occasions, he is as overrated as it gets. His defense is not as good as some would lead you to believe, although his arm is pretty incredible. Denard Span is a great lead-off hitter, with patience and a good ability to get the head of the bat on the ball. His speed is also a pretty big advantage over Cabrera. Advantage Twins.
Right Field
Nick Swisher vs Jason Kubel. This is the closest battle, as both have a lot of power and pretty good batting eyes. Kubel is a better hitter for average, while Swish is tremendous at getting on-base by any means neccessary. Defensively, Swish probably has the edge, but not by too much.
Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui vs Brendan Harris. Matsui is clearly better, as he was one of the DH's in the American League this season. End of discussion.
Bench
Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli are both on the roster, providing options for pinch running late in close games. Jerry Hairston Jr. and Eric Hinske were great mid-season pick-ups as both are very versitile and are pretty good hitters. Brett Gardner has blazing speed and should be a pest late in games pinch running and is a fine defensive CF.
Jose Morales and Mike Redmond both made the roster, as to allow Mauer to DH if they feel like going that route. Morales is a pretty decent hitter, while Redmond is a good defensive back-stop. Alexi Casilla is a solid defensive middle infielder and has a lot of speed for pinch running. Carlos Gomez is a terrific CF and has blazing speed, which should be available for pinch running.
I have to give the edge to the Yanks in bench depth and productivity. They have starters on the bench who are actually better than a couple of the Twins starters (Eric Hinske > Brendan Harris, Hairston Jr. > Nick Punto)
Bullpen
With only 3 starters needed, the Yanks are able to move Joba to the pen, which gives them 3 shut down righties. Rivera, Hughes, Joba, and David Robertson are all very effective righties. Marte and Coke bring it from the left side and will have the difficult task of shutting down Joe Mauer late in games. Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves are there for length.
The Twins bullpen is a different story. Joe Nathan is incredible, but he is only one man. He will have to be bridged by righties Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Bobby Keppel. Lefties Ron Mahay, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Mijares will have their hands full with Cano, Matsui, and switch hitters Swisher, Teixeira, and Posada.
I have to give the edge, by quite a margin, to the Yankees.
Verdict:
Yankees in 4 is my first choice. If there is a game 5, I go with the Twins.
Playoff Preview: Phillies vs. Rockies
Well, it's October, which means it is fucking time for some baseball.
Unfortunately, my Blue Jays sucked again this season, but I am a firm lover of Albert Pujols and still have a little love for Carpenter. So, I am firmly behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
But, the first series I am previewing is the first game on the slate today.
Starting Pitching
The Phillies have the edge here, with 2008 Cy winner Cliff Lee and awesome Cole Hamels, both lefties, facing off against a lefty-heavy line-up.
Game 1 features Cliff Lee vs Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has become a legit force atop the Rockies rotation, but facing a line-up as lefty heavy and deangerous as the Phillies possess will be a really tough challenge.
Game 2 will pit Cole Hamels against Aaron Cook. I see a clear advantage for the Phillies.
Game 3 will have Jason Hammel vs an un-named starter. Could be Pedro, Blanton, or Happ.
Game 4 will have Jason Marquis vs one of the above names.
The Phillies have better depth and better arms. The Rockies will need performances above the talent level if they are going out-pitch the Phillies.
Offense
Both teams feature a lefty heavy line-up, with the Phillies possessing more power.
Positionally:
Catcher
Carlos Ruiz vs Yorvit Torrealba. The Phillies probably have a slight defensive advantage, which is made up for by Torralba's slightly better defense.
First Base
Ryan Howard vs Todd Helton. Raw power vs pure hitter. Howard is so dangerous, and was an RsBI mchine all season. The edge goes to Howard, although Helton is an outstanding hitter in his own right. Howard is a butcher in the field, which lowers his edge only slightly.
Second Base
Chase Utley vs Clint Barmes. Clear advantage for the Phillies here, as Utley is an outstanding ballplayer. Barmes is solid, but is nowhere near the talent Utley is. Utley is also a gold-glove caliber defender. Eric Young Jr. could see some time at 2B is Barmes struggles even a little.
Third Base
Pedro Feliz vs Garrett Atkins/Ian Stewart. Feliz is outstanding defensively, and Atkins (who will likely play against lefties) is a bit of a butcher. Ian Stewart, when playing, is a really good 3B himself. Offensively, I give the edge to the Rockies duo. Feliz has some power, but I feel Stewart is a better hitter and Atkins is probably an equal with the stick.
Short Stop
Jimmy Rollins vs Troy Tulowitzki. I have to give the edge to the Rockies here, as Tulo has been outstanding this season. Rollins has been disappointing this season, but still has the ability to change the game with his rare combination of power and speed. Tulo is probably the better defender as well, although both are good defenders.
Left Field
Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Gonzalez/Ryan Spilborghs. Advantage Phillies. Ibanez has been outstanding this season and Gonzalez is an unproven rookie with some question marks. I would expect Spilborghs to play against liefties, but Gonzo is playing game 1. A huge edge defensively to the Rockies, which helps close the gap.
Centre Field
Shane Victorino vs Dexter Fowler. Both are switch hitters with good speed and good defense. Victorino's track record gives him the edge over the rookie, but Fowler has more speed, which could give the Phillies catcher a headache.
Right Field
Jayson Werth vs Brad Hawpe. I love Jayson Werth, I always have. He had a monster season, but Hawpe is no sloutch himself. Both have great arms in RF, but Werth is the better defender overall. I give the edge to Werth, both offensively and defensively in part because of the lefties Hawpe will face.
Bench
I love the Rockies bench. It has such a nice mix up players. Chris Ianetta is a fine hitter behind the dish, Jason Giambi has been a beast off the bench since signing with the Rockies, Seth Smith is a really solid young player, and Eric Young Jr. brings a tremendous asset with his speed. Add in Ryan Spilborghs and either Ian Stewart or Garrett Atkins and you have the makings of a very balanced and productive bench.
The Phillies have a pretty nice bench themselves. Paul Bako is a veteran with tonnes of experience, Miguels Cairo is a very versitile defender with a lot of experiance in the playoffs, Greg Dobbs is a nice hitter who can pinch hit early in the game and start over Feliz if needed at 3B, Ben Francisco was a nice mid-season pick-up and is a solid OF, and Matt Stairs brings serious power off the bench.
The edge goes to the Rockies, who just have a better bench. Period.
Bullpen
With the well documented struggles of Brad Lidge, the edge would seemingly go to the Rockies. I never discount experience in the playoffs, and in no place would I rather have it than in the bullpen. Lidge and company were great in the 2008 playoffs and there is verly little doubt they can repeat their success. Add in Brett Myers now in the bullpen and the Phillies have a nice colleciton of arms. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, and Chad Durbin are all very good right handed relievers. Scott Eyre is the only true lefty reliever out of the bullpen, but could be aided by Rookie of the Year contending starter J.A. Happ and rookie Antonio Bastardo in the earlier innings. Kyle Kendrick and either Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez make excellent long-men if needed.
The Rockies have a really good bullpen themselves. Huston Street was great this season and has re-established himself in Colorado. Mid-season acquisition Rafael Betencourt is a solid 8th inning option. Matt Belisle, Matt Daley, and Jose Contrares make up the righties in the bullpen. Joe Biemel and Franklin Morales will be the lefties coming out of the bullpen.
The advantage has to go to the experience of the Phillies. Neither team has a reliable second lefty out of the bullpen, so big spots could come down to a Ryan Howard vs Franklin Morales match-up.
Verdict:
I have to go with the Phillies in this series, but it won't be easy. The J-Factor is a clear advantage to the Phillies as well, as both Jayson Werth and Matt Stairs are ex-Blue Jays. That doesn't factor into my decision, but I can't overlook it.
PHILLIES IN 4.
Unfortunately, my Blue Jays sucked again this season, but I am a firm lover of Albert Pujols and still have a little love for Carpenter. So, I am firmly behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
But, the first series I am previewing is the first game on the slate today.
Starting Pitching
The Phillies have the edge here, with 2008 Cy winner Cliff Lee and awesome Cole Hamels, both lefties, facing off against a lefty-heavy line-up.
Game 1 features Cliff Lee vs Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has become a legit force atop the Rockies rotation, but facing a line-up as lefty heavy and deangerous as the Phillies possess will be a really tough challenge.
Game 2 will pit Cole Hamels against Aaron Cook. I see a clear advantage for the Phillies.
Game 3 will have Jason Hammel vs an un-named starter. Could be Pedro, Blanton, or Happ.
Game 4 will have Jason Marquis vs one of the above names.
The Phillies have better depth and better arms. The Rockies will need performances above the talent level if they are going out-pitch the Phillies.
Offense
Both teams feature a lefty heavy line-up, with the Phillies possessing more power.
Positionally:
Catcher
Carlos Ruiz vs Yorvit Torrealba. The Phillies probably have a slight defensive advantage, which is made up for by Torralba's slightly better defense.
First Base
Ryan Howard vs Todd Helton. Raw power vs pure hitter. Howard is so dangerous, and was an RsBI mchine all season. The edge goes to Howard, although Helton is an outstanding hitter in his own right. Howard is a butcher in the field, which lowers his edge only slightly.
Second Base
Chase Utley vs Clint Barmes. Clear advantage for the Phillies here, as Utley is an outstanding ballplayer. Barmes is solid, but is nowhere near the talent Utley is. Utley is also a gold-glove caliber defender. Eric Young Jr. could see some time at 2B is Barmes struggles even a little.
Third Base
Pedro Feliz vs Garrett Atkins/Ian Stewart. Feliz is outstanding defensively, and Atkins (who will likely play against lefties) is a bit of a butcher. Ian Stewart, when playing, is a really good 3B himself. Offensively, I give the edge to the Rockies duo. Feliz has some power, but I feel Stewart is a better hitter and Atkins is probably an equal with the stick.
Short Stop
Jimmy Rollins vs Troy Tulowitzki. I have to give the edge to the Rockies here, as Tulo has been outstanding this season. Rollins has been disappointing this season, but still has the ability to change the game with his rare combination of power and speed. Tulo is probably the better defender as well, although both are good defenders.
Left Field
Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Gonzalez/Ryan Spilborghs. Advantage Phillies. Ibanez has been outstanding this season and Gonzalez is an unproven rookie with some question marks. I would expect Spilborghs to play against liefties, but Gonzo is playing game 1. A huge edge defensively to the Rockies, which helps close the gap.
Centre Field
Shane Victorino vs Dexter Fowler. Both are switch hitters with good speed and good defense. Victorino's track record gives him the edge over the rookie, but Fowler has more speed, which could give the Phillies catcher a headache.
Right Field
Jayson Werth vs Brad Hawpe. I love Jayson Werth, I always have. He had a monster season, but Hawpe is no sloutch himself. Both have great arms in RF, but Werth is the better defender overall. I give the edge to Werth, both offensively and defensively in part because of the lefties Hawpe will face.
Bench
I love the Rockies bench. It has such a nice mix up players. Chris Ianetta is a fine hitter behind the dish, Jason Giambi has been a beast off the bench since signing with the Rockies, Seth Smith is a really solid young player, and Eric Young Jr. brings a tremendous asset with his speed. Add in Ryan Spilborghs and either Ian Stewart or Garrett Atkins and you have the makings of a very balanced and productive bench.
The Phillies have a pretty nice bench themselves. Paul Bako is a veteran with tonnes of experience, Miguels Cairo is a very versitile defender with a lot of experiance in the playoffs, Greg Dobbs is a nice hitter who can pinch hit early in the game and start over Feliz if needed at 3B, Ben Francisco was a nice mid-season pick-up and is a solid OF, and Matt Stairs brings serious power off the bench.
The edge goes to the Rockies, who just have a better bench. Period.
Bullpen
With the well documented struggles of Brad Lidge, the edge would seemingly go to the Rockies. I never discount experience in the playoffs, and in no place would I rather have it than in the bullpen. Lidge and company were great in the 2008 playoffs and there is verly little doubt they can repeat their success. Add in Brett Myers now in the bullpen and the Phillies have a nice colleciton of arms. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, and Chad Durbin are all very good right handed relievers. Scott Eyre is the only true lefty reliever out of the bullpen, but could be aided by Rookie of the Year contending starter J.A. Happ and rookie Antonio Bastardo in the earlier innings. Kyle Kendrick and either Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez make excellent long-men if needed.
The Rockies have a really good bullpen themselves. Huston Street was great this season and has re-established himself in Colorado. Mid-season acquisition Rafael Betencourt is a solid 8th inning option. Matt Belisle, Matt Daley, and Jose Contrares make up the righties in the bullpen. Joe Biemel and Franklin Morales will be the lefties coming out of the bullpen.
The advantage has to go to the experience of the Phillies. Neither team has a reliable second lefty out of the bullpen, so big spots could come down to a Ryan Howard vs Franklin Morales match-up.
Verdict:
I have to go with the Phillies in this series, but it won't be easy. The J-Factor is a clear advantage to the Phillies as well, as both Jayson Werth and Matt Stairs are ex-Blue Jays. That doesn't factor into my decision, but I can't overlook it.
PHILLIES IN 4.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Where They Stand: 2010 St. Louis Cardinals
This is the first part in what may be a full look at all 30 MLB teams and their payroll commitments heading into the offseason.
I will start with the St. Louis Cardinals, as I have been curious as to Albert Pujols' contract situation.
SP
Chris Carpenter - $14,500,000
Adam Wainwright - $4,838,000
Kyle Lohse - $9,188,000
Brad Thompson - Approx. $900,000
Mitchell Boggs - Approx. $400,000
Bullpen
Ryan Franklin - $3,250,000
Dennys Reyes - $2,000,000
Trevor Miller - $2,000,000
Kyle McClellan - Approx. $450,000
Josh Kinney - Approx. $650,000
Blake Hawksworth - Approx. $400,000
Jason Motte - Approx. $400,000
The Cardinals could use at least 1 starter for next season, but with a great top end, their need is a middle innings type like Jon Garland. It wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in 2 starters to have Thompson in the bullpen where is probably best suited.
C
Yadier Molina - $4,313,000
1B
Albert Pujols - $16,000,000
2B
Brendan Ryan - Approx. $450,000
3B
David Freese - Approx. $400,000
SS
Julio Lugo - Approx. $500,000
LF
Skip Shumaker - Approx. $800,000
CF
Colby Rasmus - Approx. $400,000
RF
Ryan Ludwick - Approx. $4,750,000
Bench
Joe Thurston - Approx. $500,000
Brian Barden - Approx. $450,000
Tyler Greene - Approx. $400,000
Joe Mather - Approx. $400,000
The Cardinals will need a back-up catcher definately. It depends a lot on what they want to do with Shumaker, as he is probably most beneficial at 2B if they can bring in a big hitting OF.
Their 2009 payroll was about $100 Million and they have about $70 Million commited allready for 2010 so they have the funds to go out and get their needs.
In summary, their needs (In order of their percieved importance):
Left-Fielder ($10-$15 Million)
Number 4 Starter ($5-$10 Million)
Third Baseman ($5 Million)
Number 5 Starter (Guy Coming Off Injuries)
Relief Help (Minor League Signings)
I will start with the St. Louis Cardinals, as I have been curious as to Albert Pujols' contract situation.
SP
Chris Carpenter - $14,500,000
Adam Wainwright - $4,838,000
Kyle Lohse - $9,188,000
Brad Thompson - Approx. $900,000
Mitchell Boggs - Approx. $400,000
Bullpen
Ryan Franklin - $3,250,000
Dennys Reyes - $2,000,000
Trevor Miller - $2,000,000
Kyle McClellan - Approx. $450,000
Josh Kinney - Approx. $650,000
Blake Hawksworth - Approx. $400,000
Jason Motte - Approx. $400,000
The Cardinals could use at least 1 starter for next season, but with a great top end, their need is a middle innings type like Jon Garland. It wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in 2 starters to have Thompson in the bullpen where is probably best suited.
C
Yadier Molina - $4,313,000
1B
Albert Pujols - $16,000,000
2B
Brendan Ryan - Approx. $450,000
3B
David Freese - Approx. $400,000
SS
Julio Lugo - Approx. $500,000
LF
Skip Shumaker - Approx. $800,000
CF
Colby Rasmus - Approx. $400,000
RF
Ryan Ludwick - Approx. $4,750,000
Bench
Joe Thurston - Approx. $500,000
Brian Barden - Approx. $450,000
Tyler Greene - Approx. $400,000
Joe Mather - Approx. $400,000
The Cardinals will need a back-up catcher definately. It depends a lot on what they want to do with Shumaker, as he is probably most beneficial at 2B if they can bring in a big hitting OF.
Their 2009 payroll was about $100 Million and they have about $70 Million commited allready for 2010 so they have the funds to go out and get their needs.
In summary, their needs (In order of their percieved importance):
Left-Fielder ($10-$15 Million)
Number 4 Starter ($5-$10 Million)
Third Baseman ($5 Million)
Number 5 Starter (Guy Coming Off Injuries)
Relief Help (Minor League Signings)
Friday, September 25, 2009
A Look Back
So, with less than 2 weeks remaining, it is time to look back at how the Jays have have done this season, offensively.
Catcher
Four players have seen time behind the plate this season. Rod Barajas has had a shitty season. Do not be fooled by the pretty number of 18, which is his HR total. Rod has been terrible behind the plate, with an OBP of .264 and only 19 walks all season, leading to a 74 OPS+. Being a catcher, you would think he would have a pretty good idea of what is and isn't a strike. Dreadfull, and thank god he is a free agent.
Raul Chavez has played the second most. He has actually been worse than Barajas, with a 66 OPS+, with 2 HR. He is a better hitter than Rod, but has almost non-exsistant power. There are conflicting reports on whether he is a free agent after the season, but his defense is amazing, and he would be nice to have as a back-up.
Michael Barrett was the early season back-up, but a shoulder injury has side-lined him for the season, pretty much. I like the signing when it happened, as he was a no-risk, potential upgrade at a troublesome position. He had a 41 OPS+ in 19 plate appearances with 1 HR. He has an option for next season, and it would not be terrible to see him brought back to compete for the back-up job.
Kyle Phillips is the "prospect" of the catchers that have played this year. He is 25 years old and had a steller season in AAA. He has been pretty bad in 11 plate appearances, posting a 18 OPS+. He is a good hitter, and September should have been the month to see if he can hit major league pitchers a little.
Overall, the catchers position has been pretty terrible all season (although they did hit 19 HR as a group). The positional OPS+ was 76, which is well below average. Only 4 teams had a lower OPS than the Jays at catcher.
First Base
Three men have played 1B this season, and surprisingly, Jose Bautista was not one of them after seeing a little time there in 2008. Lyle Overbay was the starter the majority of the time, facing mainly right-handed pitchers. Overbay has been fantastic this season, posting a 121 OPS+ and hitting 48 extra base hits. Lyle need a platoon partner at this stage in his career, but he has shown that he can pound righties, while playing top flight defense.
Kevin Millar has been the most dissapointing player this season, when including expectations. He was supposed to come in and do what Lyle did against left-handed pitchers. His OPS+ versus lefties was .722 which isn't terrible, but his numbers versus righties were horrendous, which a .545 OPS. Overall, a 69 OPS+ is terrible for a 1B/DH.
Randy Ruiz has played very little 1B, so his 4 at bats in this slot are not worth duscussing.
Overall, the Jays are 22nd in the Majors in OPS at .814. They really need Overbay's platoon partner to do his job next season. Randy Ruiz could be an excellent choice to be that guy, and judging by his performance as a DH, he can adequately do the job.
Second Base
Four guys have played 2B this season. Aaron Hill has been great this season in regards to power and production. It would be nice if he could walk a little more and use the whole field better, but it is hard to complain about Hill's season, in which he has a 115 OPS+. With 33 HR and 101 RsBI, Hill has been the elite 2B in the American League this season. He is well deserving of the Silver Slugger that he will win this season.
John McDonald has played the second most at 2B with 55 innings. Joe Inglett has played 20 innings, and Marco Scutaro has 4 innings at 2B.
Overall, they have the 4th highest OPS at the position, the most HR, total bases, and the most RsBI. Aaron Hill has been amazing this season and the Jays should seriously look at using him as the clean-up hitter next season behind Adam Lind.
Third Base
Overall, the Jays have been about league average in OPS this season, but that is due to Scott Rolen, who is no longer with us. Aside from Scott, 4 others have played the hot corner.
Edwin Encarnacion, who was acquired in the Rolen trade, has played the most. His 85 OPS+ isn't terrible, and it has been improving this month. He is showing enough improvement to give a little hope for next season from him. He has some power, as he has 6 HR.
Jose Bautista has 209 innings at 3B, and has been pretty decent this season overall. As a 3B, he has a .605 OPS and 1 HR in 82 AB.
John McDonald has 78 innings at 3B and Kevin Millar has 1 inning at 3B.
It is tough to gauge the Jays at 3B, due to how well Rolen played in Toronto and how bad the rest of the guys were.
Short Stop
Marco Scutaro has been the primary SS this season and has had a break-out/career season. He has scored the 2nd most runs of all SS this season and the 4th highest OBP. Marco's 109 OPS+ has been icredible to watch this season, but he is a free agent and there is a high chance he is not back in Toronto next season.
John McDonald is the only other player with SS time this season. We all know his deal, he plays great defense and can't hit. Well, while that is definately true, Johnny has shown some pop this season with 3 HR.
Overall, the Jays rank pretty well in comparison to baseball sue to Scutaro's big season. They rank 4th in runs scored, 5th in OBP, and 5th in OPS. They are in the top 10 in hits, SLG%, doubles, HR, total bases, and batting average.
Left Field
The outfield corners have been kind of a revolving door this season. Seven guys have played in LF this season, with Adam Lind leading the way. Since he has more DH time this season, I will go over him in detail there, but his LF numbers are pretty nice too. In fact, his rate stats are better as a LF than a DH. He has 14 HR in LF with 40 RsBI. His .316 average and .991 OPS are incredible, along with his 20 doubles.
Travis Snider has the 2nd most innings in LF with 357. His numbers seem week, but his 94 OPS+ says otherwise. Sure, it is not what was expected, but being slightly below average at such a young age is pretty good. He tore apart AAA pitching when he was demoted early and has come back up and hit for power, but not for average as of yet.
Jose Bautista had a lot of early season LF action in place of Snider. As a LF, he has been steller offensively. His .384 OBP is very nice, but his SLG% was lower than I expected it to be. His power seemed to have dissappeared this season, but he emmerged with some impressive plate discipline.
Joe Inglett has been pretty allright this season with a 85 OPS+. His average is usually pretty decent, as is his walk total. His lack of power hurts, especially if he is playing more OF than 2B.
David Delucci, Russ Adams, and John McDonald all saw over 20 innings in LF with pretty terrible offense.
Overall, the Jays were 9th in baseball with a .810 OPS in LF. The rest of the numbers range from average to bad. Adam Lind's time in LF makes them respectable overall.
Centre Field
Vernon Wells. He hasn't been as bad as publicized, with a 90 OPS+. The he gets media fucked, you'd think he was hitting worse than J-Mac. His 15 HR are kind of pathetic from him, as are his 66 RsBI. His 34 doubles are nice, though.
Alex Rios has the 2nd most innings with 61. Jose Bautista has 31 innings in CF, while Joe Inglett played 1 inning.
Overall, besides doubles and HR, the Jays are in the bottom 10 in almost every category in CF. Wells will need to bounce back to the better than average hitter that he is next season if the Jays are to show any semblance of respectability.
Right Field
The Jays are worse in RF than any other position on the team. Alex Rios really wasn't that bad, with a 95 OPS+ in 915 innings. Since he has left, Jose Bautista and Travis Snider have splitt RF duties.
Bautista has been brutal offensively in RF with a .739 OPS. Snider has been oven worse in RF with a .701 OPS.
Joe Inglett is the other RF with 75 innings of .687 OPS.
Overall, with the really bad performances of Bautista, Snider, and Inglett while playing RF and Alex Rios being not good, the Jays are left with some of the worst production out of RF in baseball.
Designated Hitter
Adam Lind has been terrific. He has been a little better as a LF, but still has been steller when DHing with a .854 OPS. Adding in Randy Ruiz and his good production in 25 games as a DH (.878 OPS) gives you a good place to start. Unfortunately, Kevin Millar's poor 21 DH strarts and the parade of 1 or 2 game DHs such as Russ Adams, David Dellucci, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista, Marco Scutaro, Travis Snider, and Vernon Wells bring the numbers down a little.
Overall, the Jays are about average accross the board in the American League at DH. Next season, the Jays need to decide whether Adam Lind is a DH or a LF. My vote is for DH, as he is pretty brutal in LF.
Well, that is a look back at how the Jays have done position by position. The remaining 9 games shouldn't change the results too much.
Catcher
Four players have seen time behind the plate this season. Rod Barajas has had a shitty season. Do not be fooled by the pretty number of 18, which is his HR total. Rod has been terrible behind the plate, with an OBP of .264 and only 19 walks all season, leading to a 74 OPS+. Being a catcher, you would think he would have a pretty good idea of what is and isn't a strike. Dreadfull, and thank god he is a free agent.
Raul Chavez has played the second most. He has actually been worse than Barajas, with a 66 OPS+, with 2 HR. He is a better hitter than Rod, but has almost non-exsistant power. There are conflicting reports on whether he is a free agent after the season, but his defense is amazing, and he would be nice to have as a back-up.
Michael Barrett was the early season back-up, but a shoulder injury has side-lined him for the season, pretty much. I like the signing when it happened, as he was a no-risk, potential upgrade at a troublesome position. He had a 41 OPS+ in 19 plate appearances with 1 HR. He has an option for next season, and it would not be terrible to see him brought back to compete for the back-up job.
Kyle Phillips is the "prospect" of the catchers that have played this year. He is 25 years old and had a steller season in AAA. He has been pretty bad in 11 plate appearances, posting a 18 OPS+. He is a good hitter, and September should have been the month to see if he can hit major league pitchers a little.
Overall, the catchers position has been pretty terrible all season (although they did hit 19 HR as a group). The positional OPS+ was 76, which is well below average. Only 4 teams had a lower OPS than the Jays at catcher.
First Base
Three men have played 1B this season, and surprisingly, Jose Bautista was not one of them after seeing a little time there in 2008. Lyle Overbay was the starter the majority of the time, facing mainly right-handed pitchers. Overbay has been fantastic this season, posting a 121 OPS+ and hitting 48 extra base hits. Lyle need a platoon partner at this stage in his career, but he has shown that he can pound righties, while playing top flight defense.
Kevin Millar has been the most dissapointing player this season, when including expectations. He was supposed to come in and do what Lyle did against left-handed pitchers. His OPS+ versus lefties was .722 which isn't terrible, but his numbers versus righties were horrendous, which a .545 OPS. Overall, a 69 OPS+ is terrible for a 1B/DH.
Randy Ruiz has played very little 1B, so his 4 at bats in this slot are not worth duscussing.
Overall, the Jays are 22nd in the Majors in OPS at .814. They really need Overbay's platoon partner to do his job next season. Randy Ruiz could be an excellent choice to be that guy, and judging by his performance as a DH, he can adequately do the job.
Second Base
Four guys have played 2B this season. Aaron Hill has been great this season in regards to power and production. It would be nice if he could walk a little more and use the whole field better, but it is hard to complain about Hill's season, in which he has a 115 OPS+. With 33 HR and 101 RsBI, Hill has been the elite 2B in the American League this season. He is well deserving of the Silver Slugger that he will win this season.
John McDonald has played the second most at 2B with 55 innings. Joe Inglett has played 20 innings, and Marco Scutaro has 4 innings at 2B.
Overall, they have the 4th highest OPS at the position, the most HR, total bases, and the most RsBI. Aaron Hill has been amazing this season and the Jays should seriously look at using him as the clean-up hitter next season behind Adam Lind.
Third Base
Overall, the Jays have been about league average in OPS this season, but that is due to Scott Rolen, who is no longer with us. Aside from Scott, 4 others have played the hot corner.
Edwin Encarnacion, who was acquired in the Rolen trade, has played the most. His 85 OPS+ isn't terrible, and it has been improving this month. He is showing enough improvement to give a little hope for next season from him. He has some power, as he has 6 HR.
Jose Bautista has 209 innings at 3B, and has been pretty decent this season overall. As a 3B, he has a .605 OPS and 1 HR in 82 AB.
John McDonald has 78 innings at 3B and Kevin Millar has 1 inning at 3B.
It is tough to gauge the Jays at 3B, due to how well Rolen played in Toronto and how bad the rest of the guys were.
Short Stop
Marco Scutaro has been the primary SS this season and has had a break-out/career season. He has scored the 2nd most runs of all SS this season and the 4th highest OBP. Marco's 109 OPS+ has been icredible to watch this season, but he is a free agent and there is a high chance he is not back in Toronto next season.
John McDonald is the only other player with SS time this season. We all know his deal, he plays great defense and can't hit. Well, while that is definately true, Johnny has shown some pop this season with 3 HR.
Overall, the Jays rank pretty well in comparison to baseball sue to Scutaro's big season. They rank 4th in runs scored, 5th in OBP, and 5th in OPS. They are in the top 10 in hits, SLG%, doubles, HR, total bases, and batting average.
Left Field
The outfield corners have been kind of a revolving door this season. Seven guys have played in LF this season, with Adam Lind leading the way. Since he has more DH time this season, I will go over him in detail there, but his LF numbers are pretty nice too. In fact, his rate stats are better as a LF than a DH. He has 14 HR in LF with 40 RsBI. His .316 average and .991 OPS are incredible, along with his 20 doubles.
Travis Snider has the 2nd most innings in LF with 357. His numbers seem week, but his 94 OPS+ says otherwise. Sure, it is not what was expected, but being slightly below average at such a young age is pretty good. He tore apart AAA pitching when he was demoted early and has come back up and hit for power, but not for average as of yet.
Jose Bautista had a lot of early season LF action in place of Snider. As a LF, he has been steller offensively. His .384 OBP is very nice, but his SLG% was lower than I expected it to be. His power seemed to have dissappeared this season, but he emmerged with some impressive plate discipline.
Joe Inglett has been pretty allright this season with a 85 OPS+. His average is usually pretty decent, as is his walk total. His lack of power hurts, especially if he is playing more OF than 2B.
David Delucci, Russ Adams, and John McDonald all saw over 20 innings in LF with pretty terrible offense.
Overall, the Jays were 9th in baseball with a .810 OPS in LF. The rest of the numbers range from average to bad. Adam Lind's time in LF makes them respectable overall.
Centre Field
Vernon Wells. He hasn't been as bad as publicized, with a 90 OPS+. The he gets media fucked, you'd think he was hitting worse than J-Mac. His 15 HR are kind of pathetic from him, as are his 66 RsBI. His 34 doubles are nice, though.
Alex Rios has the 2nd most innings with 61. Jose Bautista has 31 innings in CF, while Joe Inglett played 1 inning.
Overall, besides doubles and HR, the Jays are in the bottom 10 in almost every category in CF. Wells will need to bounce back to the better than average hitter that he is next season if the Jays are to show any semblance of respectability.
Right Field
The Jays are worse in RF than any other position on the team. Alex Rios really wasn't that bad, with a 95 OPS+ in 915 innings. Since he has left, Jose Bautista and Travis Snider have splitt RF duties.
Bautista has been brutal offensively in RF with a .739 OPS. Snider has been oven worse in RF with a .701 OPS.
Joe Inglett is the other RF with 75 innings of .687 OPS.
Overall, with the really bad performances of Bautista, Snider, and Inglett while playing RF and Alex Rios being not good, the Jays are left with some of the worst production out of RF in baseball.
Designated Hitter
Adam Lind has been terrific. He has been a little better as a LF, but still has been steller when DHing with a .854 OPS. Adding in Randy Ruiz and his good production in 25 games as a DH (.878 OPS) gives you a good place to start. Unfortunately, Kevin Millar's poor 21 DH strarts and the parade of 1 or 2 game DHs such as Russ Adams, David Dellucci, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista, Marco Scutaro, Travis Snider, and Vernon Wells bring the numbers down a little.
Overall, the Jays are about average accross the board in the American League at DH. Next season, the Jays need to decide whether Adam Lind is a DH or a LF. My vote is for DH, as he is pretty brutal in LF.
Well, that is a look back at how the Jays have done position by position. The remaining 9 games shouldn't change the results too much.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
TUF Season 10: Week 2
So, My favourite show on television is in it's second week back. It is looking like it could be an exciting season with the trash talk between Rashad & Rampage, but the fights could be really lackluster is they go more than 1 round.
As I saw tonight, monster Wes Shivers (ex NFL reject) is not fit to be a professional fighter. The dude has massive power and can put someone out if he ever figures out how to lead his opponent's chin like a Drew Bledsoe spiral.
He looked like I would have looked into a second round of a fight.
James McSweeney looked fucked scared to death to get within reach of the Shiv, and with good reason. McSweeney, though, started landing thuderous leg-kicks and I thought he took the 1st round, but it was close.
The 2nd round was McSweeney getting in a shot and Shivers not moving an inch from the corner he chose to chill in. McSweeney almost ended it with a head kick after a nice right-hand, but couldn't put him away.
Two things I noticed about the fight: 1. Shivers is a cock. He wouldn't start the fight with a glove touch and after he punted McSweeney's nuts across the cage, he wouldn't tap gloves again. What a cock. 2. Rampage is fucking stupid.
The second point is many fold. The 1st, he is a terrible coach. The guy is brutal at picking fights. During his season against Forrest, I thought his choices sucked, but maybe he just didn't know any better. But after week 1, where he put his stand-up fighter with zero ground skills up against the other team's best wrestler, I made up my mind.
Then, this week he chooses immobile object to go against Rashad's number 1 pick? Give me a break Rampage.
The second, and biggest, reason he is a fucking idiot is his recent decision to quit the UFC and MMA for acting. Specifically, he is quitting to play B.A. in an A-Team movie that will suck pretty hard.
Now, Rampage's last fight was against Keith Jardine, a good fighter, but not a big money draw. Rampage got paid $325,000 for the fight (including a win bonus), not including any ammount he got for sponsorships and percentages of the gate and future DVD sales. His fight against Rashad at the end of the season could have gotten him $500,000 guaranteed with a potential total earnings of over $1M.
There is no way that Rampage will get paid big money for his movie role (which is probably why he is getting the part). Rampage is turning down guaranteed huge money for the hope that he can turn a good performance in a joke of a movie into a huge movie career. That shit won't happen. Rampage will never make $1M for a movie. No way.
Anyways, back to the show. James McSweeney ended up winning the fight by majority decision, and Rashad gained control of the fights. He did what I thought he would and chose Kimbo. What surprised me is that he put him up against Roy Nelson.
In my opinion, Roy Nelson was the biggest name on this season. Sure, Kimbo was the more recognizable, but Nelson was the first IFL Heavyweight Champ and defended it twice before IFL folded. Nelson is the real deal and should not have even had to go through the Ultimate Fighter to make it in the UFC.
So, next week should be the big draw for the season. For the show's sake, I hope Kimbo wins. The ratings will plumet if Kimbo is eliminated, as there is no coach pay-off this season. All the back and forth that we will see with Rashad and Rampage will lead nowhere, and it's a shame. That was a fight I was looking forward to.
Oh well. can't wait for next week.
As I saw tonight, monster Wes Shivers (ex NFL reject) is not fit to be a professional fighter. The dude has massive power and can put someone out if he ever figures out how to lead his opponent's chin like a Drew Bledsoe spiral.
He looked like I would have looked into a second round of a fight.
James McSweeney looked fucked scared to death to get within reach of the Shiv, and with good reason. McSweeney, though, started landing thuderous leg-kicks and I thought he took the 1st round, but it was close.
The 2nd round was McSweeney getting in a shot and Shivers not moving an inch from the corner he chose to chill in. McSweeney almost ended it with a head kick after a nice right-hand, but couldn't put him away.
Two things I noticed about the fight: 1. Shivers is a cock. He wouldn't start the fight with a glove touch and after he punted McSweeney's nuts across the cage, he wouldn't tap gloves again. What a cock. 2. Rampage is fucking stupid.
The second point is many fold. The 1st, he is a terrible coach. The guy is brutal at picking fights. During his season against Forrest, I thought his choices sucked, but maybe he just didn't know any better. But after week 1, where he put his stand-up fighter with zero ground skills up against the other team's best wrestler, I made up my mind.
Then, this week he chooses immobile object to go against Rashad's number 1 pick? Give me a break Rampage.
The second, and biggest, reason he is a fucking idiot is his recent decision to quit the UFC and MMA for acting. Specifically, he is quitting to play B.A. in an A-Team movie that will suck pretty hard.
Now, Rampage's last fight was against Keith Jardine, a good fighter, but not a big money draw. Rampage got paid $325,000 for the fight (including a win bonus), not including any ammount he got for sponsorships and percentages of the gate and future DVD sales. His fight against Rashad at the end of the season could have gotten him $500,000 guaranteed with a potential total earnings of over $1M.
There is no way that Rampage will get paid big money for his movie role (which is probably why he is getting the part). Rampage is turning down guaranteed huge money for the hope that he can turn a good performance in a joke of a movie into a huge movie career. That shit won't happen. Rampage will never make $1M for a movie. No way.
Anyways, back to the show. James McSweeney ended up winning the fight by majority decision, and Rashad gained control of the fights. He did what I thought he would and chose Kimbo. What surprised me is that he put him up against Roy Nelson.
In my opinion, Roy Nelson was the biggest name on this season. Sure, Kimbo was the more recognizable, but Nelson was the first IFL Heavyweight Champ and defended it twice before IFL folded. Nelson is the real deal and should not have even had to go through the Ultimate Fighter to make it in the UFC.
So, next week should be the big draw for the season. For the show's sake, I hope Kimbo wins. The ratings will plumet if Kimbo is eliminated, as there is no coach pay-off this season. All the back and forth that we will see with Rashad and Rampage will lead nowhere, and it's a shame. That was a fight I was looking forward to.
Oh well. can't wait for next week.
Friday, September 18, 2009
The Free Agents: The Premium Talent
Yesterday, I posted on the upcoming players who have options on their contracts for 2010 and gave some personal insight on how I thought each situation would be handled.
Today, I am going to look at a few guys who I feel are the top of the class and where they could fit.
First, some clarification. I am basing the "premium" talent off of 2 things. The first is a type A free agent, regardless of if it is likely that his team offers arbitration. The second is personal opinion and bias. The type A stuff is a little, shall we say, poorly done. Some of the type A free agents are not very good. They are just players that have put up good enough counting stats and played a lot.
The type A guys will be the players who were clasified as such as of September 7th.
Jason Bay, OF / Matt Holliday, OF
Bay is probably the best available player this winter. He has put up a 131 OPS+ in his career, most of which was in Pittsburgh with no help around him. He has 3o+HR and 100+RsBI 4 of the last 5 seasons, and should have many suitors. The Red Sox, Angels, Mets and Yankees all have a need for an OF and are known to spend big. Let's stay focused there. Bay says he is very happy in Boston, and there is no reason for the two not to agree on something. Verdict: Bay Re-Signs with Red Sox. Holliday will be a consolation prize at a lower price. I can see him signing with the same teams, but I think there has been too much chatter for him to not end up in pin-stripes. Verdict: Holliday Signs with the Yankees.
Bobby Abreu, OF
For some reason, Abreu had to settle for the silent treatment this past off-season. The man with 11 straight 110+OPS+ seasons got ignored all winter. He eventually had to agree to a 1 year contract and has done remarkable, putting up his 12th straight season of well above average production. He has even stolen 29 bases. He should have a big market to play in and the same 4 will look at him that look at Jason Bay. He should be back to making big market money, which might price him out of some markets. The teams I see being very good fits are the Angels, Mets, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, and Giants. It will be a tough call as he is very valuable force in a line-up. Picture him getting on-base at a .400 clip in front of Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Scary. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Johnny Damon, OF
Damon is an interesting case, as a lot of value comes from his HR total, which is most likely inflated by new Yankee Stadium. He has averaged 19 HR per season in New York. Would he be so potent outside of the jet-stream? He averaged 14 HR is 4 seasons in Boston, so his power only looks slightly inflated. And when he started to emerge in Kansas city, he had 3 straight season with at least 14 HR. If he picks a hitter friendly park, he should be fine with the homers. If he goes to a place like Oakland (where he was kind of awful), then it could be trouble. I can see the Yankees keeping him, but he is an awfully weird choice for a DH in New York. It is realy tough to place Damon, as his only defensive position is LF, which is a spot usually reserved for premium run producers. He could probably play 1B, but again would be no more than acceptable at best offensively. Verdict: Re-Signs with the Yankees.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF
Vlad is pretty much relagated to DH duties for the rest of his career, eliminating any reasonable National League team. He still has power and still can hit for a good average, which should be good for any team looking for a DH. The problem is that teams are starting to use the DH as a spot to give their weaker defensive players and older guys a chance to rest while keeping their bat in the line-up. I think the Blue Jays would be a perfect fit, as they have a young OF that does not really need to stay off the field. 2009 is likely to be the first season that Vlad hasn't hit .300 or OBP'd .350, which is outstanding. He could probably be signed for about $8M-$10M on a 1 or 2 year contract. Seatle and the Tigers could also be interested. In the end, the best fit I see is Toronto, which won't happen. Verdict: Signs with Seattle.
Marco Scutaro, SS/2B
Marco is going to roll off a career year and turn it into millions of dollars and a muti-year contract. He fits in a lot of places. Boston if they decline A-Gonzalez. Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, Washington, St. Louis, and Chicago Cubs all have a need to certain degrees at SS. Marco could be a good lead-off hitter or a perfect number 2 hitter on a lot of teams. His versatility is also a factor, as he is also a very good 2B. It is tough to see any one of those teams actually actively pursuing Marco. St. Louis looks to be the most likely from that group, so that is where I will put him. Verdict: Signs with the Cardinals.
Orlando Cabrera, SS
The same teams will be in on Cabrera, as long as his type A label does not hinder him again. Minnesota should re-sign him, as he fits perfectly on their team. I also think that Washington will take a run at him if he is not offered arbitration. Verdict: Re-Signs with Minnesota.
Chone Figgins, 3B/2B/OF
The most coveted player could be Figgins, who can start at 3B or 2B in the infield or in the OF. Any team with an opening anywhere will look at Figgins. He could get big money, which eliminates most of his suitors. He probably ends up back in LA or with a team like the Blue Jays or Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Mets make a lot of sense in the NL, but the Braves will back down at the price. Figgins seems like a back-up plan in the OF to the Mets, but could start at 3B in St. Louis. I think the White Sox will make a serious run at him, as he is literally the perfect fit for their style. Verdict: Signs with the White Sox.
Andy Pettitte, SP
It seems to be Yankees or bust for Pettitte, yet again. But, why? If he is going to take around $5M, that should put a lot teams interested. Pettitte is no longer good enough to be a good starter in the AL East, so why not go be a good starter in the NL. The Dodgers make a ton of sense, with Joe Torre in fold. Houston could work, as he has played there and had a lot of success. As long as Pettitte doesn't carry too much sentiment than he can be a usefull starter for any team in baseball. There are also rumblings he may retire, which is stupid. He will be 38 next season, which is still kind of young. If he can average 15 wins for the next 5 seasons (not impossible) than he can win 300 games. I think he should try his hand in the NL West with the Dodgers and go for it. Verdict: Re-Signs with Yankees. Regreted by Both sides.
John Lackey, SP
Lackey is a stud. He has been a litle banged up the last 2 season, but has still up great numbers. He was a Cy contender in 2007 and can still be a top of the rotation force. The Angels have depth, but would be wise to try and retain their ace. Being from Texas immediately puts him in the crosshairs of the Rangers and Astros. Texas pride is about the only thing that has baffled me. Why a guy would want to pitch in that shoebox in Arlington or for a terrible team constructor in Houston is beyond me. But, with the Astros lack of monetary freedom (thanks to some recent big signings) and the Rangers finincial problems (which may or may not get resolved in time to make a bid at Lackey), both Texas teams seem out of the equation. He makes sense for every big market team, because you can never have too much pitching. The Yankees could use a better number 2 than Burnett, the Red Sox could use Dice-L insurance at the top of their rotation, the Mets could certainly use a legit option behind Johan. If the Cubs can trade Zambrano (unlikely), they could be bidders as well. Maybe even the Dodgers could make a play. In the end, I think Lackey stays put. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Benji Molina, C
Benji is the only type A free agent catcher, which should hurt his value and limit his suitors. The thing about Molina is this: he puts up good numbers on the surface, but is not even a league average offensive player. He is close, and he had 2 seasons in his career where he was league average or better (2005 and 2006). His value is in his power, but what Molina gives you, so will Rod Barajas. Molina is slightly better hitter, but they are close enough to not bother with Molina. Think about it. Would you give Molina $2M more per year over a longer deal and surrender a 1st or 2nd round draft choice when you could sign almost the same player for less per year over a shorter deal without being punished? Didn't think so. Still, there will be teams interested. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Orlando Hudson, 2B / Felipe Lopez, 2B/3B/SS
I am lumping them together here as they are actually pretty similar players. Hudson is the better player, but Felipe is closer than perceived. Lopez is picking a great time to play his best baseball since his inflated 2005. Since being traded to St. Louis last season, Lopez has hit well above .300, while OPS'ing about .375, which is outstanding. Hudson's advantage is in his consistancy. He has been consistantly above average the last 4 seasons, while Lopez goes back and forth. Teams that need a 2B include: Minnesota (if Casilla plays SS), KC (if they want to upgrade defense), White Sox, Seattle (if Jose Lopez gets shifted), Nationals (if Guzman stays at SS), Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and D-Backs. I see one of them in Chicago with the Cubs, most likely Lopez. Hudson has been linked to the Nationals (mostly the Nationals being very interested) and the Mets (if they can rid themselves of Luis Castillo). The Dodgers have said they won't get into a bidding war over Hudson, which leads me to believe they have a plan (which shouldn't be Blake DeWitt). Predictions: Hudson signs with Cubs, Lopez with Dodgers.
Troy Glaus, 1B/3B
Glaus a guy who may get a minor league deal, which would eliminate any compensation pick. He still has power, but his recent injuries may prevent him from being able to play 3B. He could be a DH option in the AL or a back-up 1B/PH in the NL. Being in that situation puts Glaus on everyone's radar. I would like to see the Rangers sign him, as I believe he could excell DH'ing there. Baltimore makes sense as well, as long as Luke Scott can play 1B. Prediction: Too Unpredictable To Determine Yet.
Rich Harden, RP
Harden is an enigma. When healthy, he is an ace. He has actually had one of his worst season this year in 140+ innings. He would be a great risk move similar to Brad Penny last season, which makes is destination unknown. I will predict that he does what Penny did. Verdict: Signs with Red Sox.
Randy Wolf, SP
Wolf is a product of the NL. He would get eaten up alive if he had to pitch to a DH every start. He knows this, which is why he has stayed in the NL his whole career. There will be plenty of teams interested, with Wolf having his best season ever. The Mets make a lot of sense, as do the Dodgers (his current employer). In the end, I think the Mets need him more than the Dodgers. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
The list of type A relievers is usually a little less impressive. Darren Oliver will either not get offered arbitration or end up back in LA with the Angels. No team will give up a pick for him, just like last off-season. Valverde will be the one with the most suitors, as the better Trevor Hoffman will probably re-sign with Milwaukee. Atlanta will re-sign one of Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, count on it. Which one remains to be seem. When healthy, Gonzalez is better and left-handed. I say the Braves re-up Gonzo, leaving Soriano to walk. Billy Wagner wants to close, and if he keeps pitching as well as he has been, he will get his chance somewhere. Kevin Gregg and LaTroy Hawkins are both quality arms, who will have a bunch of teams interested. John Grabow will get to choose whichever team he wants. Most of my predictions are just wild speculation.
Jose Valverde, RP. Verdict: Signs with Tigers.
Mike Gonzalez, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Braves.
Rafael Soriano, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mariners.
Trevor Hoffman, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Brewers.
Kevin Gregg, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
Latroy Hawkins, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Astros.
John Grabow, RP. Verdict: Signs with Yankees.
Billy Wagner, RP. Verdict: Signs with Cardinals.
Darren Oliver, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Today, I am going to look at a few guys who I feel are the top of the class and where they could fit.
First, some clarification. I am basing the "premium" talent off of 2 things. The first is a type A free agent, regardless of if it is likely that his team offers arbitration. The second is personal opinion and bias. The type A stuff is a little, shall we say, poorly done. Some of the type A free agents are not very good. They are just players that have put up good enough counting stats and played a lot.
The type A guys will be the players who were clasified as such as of September 7th.
Jason Bay, OF / Matt Holliday, OF
Bay is probably the best available player this winter. He has put up a 131 OPS+ in his career, most of which was in Pittsburgh with no help around him. He has 3o+HR and 100+RsBI 4 of the last 5 seasons, and should have many suitors. The Red Sox, Angels, Mets and Yankees all have a need for an OF and are known to spend big. Let's stay focused there. Bay says he is very happy in Boston, and there is no reason for the two not to agree on something. Verdict: Bay Re-Signs with Red Sox. Holliday will be a consolation prize at a lower price. I can see him signing with the same teams, but I think there has been too much chatter for him to not end up in pin-stripes. Verdict: Holliday Signs with the Yankees.
Bobby Abreu, OF
For some reason, Abreu had to settle for the silent treatment this past off-season. The man with 11 straight 110+OPS+ seasons got ignored all winter. He eventually had to agree to a 1 year contract and has done remarkable, putting up his 12th straight season of well above average production. He has even stolen 29 bases. He should have a big market to play in and the same 4 will look at him that look at Jason Bay. He should be back to making big market money, which might price him out of some markets. The teams I see being very good fits are the Angels, Mets, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, and Giants. It will be a tough call as he is very valuable force in a line-up. Picture him getting on-base at a .400 clip in front of Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Scary. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Johnny Damon, OF
Damon is an interesting case, as a lot of value comes from his HR total, which is most likely inflated by new Yankee Stadium. He has averaged 19 HR per season in New York. Would he be so potent outside of the jet-stream? He averaged 14 HR is 4 seasons in Boston, so his power only looks slightly inflated. And when he started to emerge in Kansas city, he had 3 straight season with at least 14 HR. If he picks a hitter friendly park, he should be fine with the homers. If he goes to a place like Oakland (where he was kind of awful), then it could be trouble. I can see the Yankees keeping him, but he is an awfully weird choice for a DH in New York. It is realy tough to place Damon, as his only defensive position is LF, which is a spot usually reserved for premium run producers. He could probably play 1B, but again would be no more than acceptable at best offensively. Verdict: Re-Signs with the Yankees.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF
Vlad is pretty much relagated to DH duties for the rest of his career, eliminating any reasonable National League team. He still has power and still can hit for a good average, which should be good for any team looking for a DH. The problem is that teams are starting to use the DH as a spot to give their weaker defensive players and older guys a chance to rest while keeping their bat in the line-up. I think the Blue Jays would be a perfect fit, as they have a young OF that does not really need to stay off the field. 2009 is likely to be the first season that Vlad hasn't hit .300 or OBP'd .350, which is outstanding. He could probably be signed for about $8M-$10M on a 1 or 2 year contract. Seatle and the Tigers could also be interested. In the end, the best fit I see is Toronto, which won't happen. Verdict: Signs with Seattle.
Marco Scutaro, SS/2B
Marco is going to roll off a career year and turn it into millions of dollars and a muti-year contract. He fits in a lot of places. Boston if they decline A-Gonzalez. Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, Washington, St. Louis, and Chicago Cubs all have a need to certain degrees at SS. Marco could be a good lead-off hitter or a perfect number 2 hitter on a lot of teams. His versatility is also a factor, as he is also a very good 2B. It is tough to see any one of those teams actually actively pursuing Marco. St. Louis looks to be the most likely from that group, so that is where I will put him. Verdict: Signs with the Cardinals.
Orlando Cabrera, SS
The same teams will be in on Cabrera, as long as his type A label does not hinder him again. Minnesota should re-sign him, as he fits perfectly on their team. I also think that Washington will take a run at him if he is not offered arbitration. Verdict: Re-Signs with Minnesota.
Chone Figgins, 3B/2B/OF
The most coveted player could be Figgins, who can start at 3B or 2B in the infield or in the OF. Any team with an opening anywhere will look at Figgins. He could get big money, which eliminates most of his suitors. He probably ends up back in LA or with a team like the Blue Jays or Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Mets make a lot of sense in the NL, but the Braves will back down at the price. Figgins seems like a back-up plan in the OF to the Mets, but could start at 3B in St. Louis. I think the White Sox will make a serious run at him, as he is literally the perfect fit for their style. Verdict: Signs with the White Sox.
Andy Pettitte, SP
It seems to be Yankees or bust for Pettitte, yet again. But, why? If he is going to take around $5M, that should put a lot teams interested. Pettitte is no longer good enough to be a good starter in the AL East, so why not go be a good starter in the NL. The Dodgers make a ton of sense, with Joe Torre in fold. Houston could work, as he has played there and had a lot of success. As long as Pettitte doesn't carry too much sentiment than he can be a usefull starter for any team in baseball. There are also rumblings he may retire, which is stupid. He will be 38 next season, which is still kind of young. If he can average 15 wins for the next 5 seasons (not impossible) than he can win 300 games. I think he should try his hand in the NL West with the Dodgers and go for it. Verdict: Re-Signs with Yankees. Regreted by Both sides.
John Lackey, SP
Lackey is a stud. He has been a litle banged up the last 2 season, but has still up great numbers. He was a Cy contender in 2007 and can still be a top of the rotation force. The Angels have depth, but would be wise to try and retain their ace. Being from Texas immediately puts him in the crosshairs of the Rangers and Astros. Texas pride is about the only thing that has baffled me. Why a guy would want to pitch in that shoebox in Arlington or for a terrible team constructor in Houston is beyond me. But, with the Astros lack of monetary freedom (thanks to some recent big signings) and the Rangers finincial problems (which may or may not get resolved in time to make a bid at Lackey), both Texas teams seem out of the equation. He makes sense for every big market team, because you can never have too much pitching. The Yankees could use a better number 2 than Burnett, the Red Sox could use Dice-L insurance at the top of their rotation, the Mets could certainly use a legit option behind Johan. If the Cubs can trade Zambrano (unlikely), they could be bidders as well. Maybe even the Dodgers could make a play. In the end, I think Lackey stays put. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Benji Molina, C
Benji is the only type A free agent catcher, which should hurt his value and limit his suitors. The thing about Molina is this: he puts up good numbers on the surface, but is not even a league average offensive player. He is close, and he had 2 seasons in his career where he was league average or better (2005 and 2006). His value is in his power, but what Molina gives you, so will Rod Barajas. Molina is slightly better hitter, but they are close enough to not bother with Molina. Think about it. Would you give Molina $2M more per year over a longer deal and surrender a 1st or 2nd round draft choice when you could sign almost the same player for less per year over a shorter deal without being punished? Didn't think so. Still, there will be teams interested. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Orlando Hudson, 2B / Felipe Lopez, 2B/3B/SS
I am lumping them together here as they are actually pretty similar players. Hudson is the better player, but Felipe is closer than perceived. Lopez is picking a great time to play his best baseball since his inflated 2005. Since being traded to St. Louis last season, Lopez has hit well above .300, while OPS'ing about .375, which is outstanding. Hudson's advantage is in his consistancy. He has been consistantly above average the last 4 seasons, while Lopez goes back and forth. Teams that need a 2B include: Minnesota (if Casilla plays SS), KC (if they want to upgrade defense), White Sox, Seattle (if Jose Lopez gets shifted), Nationals (if Guzman stays at SS), Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and D-Backs. I see one of them in Chicago with the Cubs, most likely Lopez. Hudson has been linked to the Nationals (mostly the Nationals being very interested) and the Mets (if they can rid themselves of Luis Castillo). The Dodgers have said they won't get into a bidding war over Hudson, which leads me to believe they have a plan (which shouldn't be Blake DeWitt). Predictions: Hudson signs with Cubs, Lopez with Dodgers.
Troy Glaus, 1B/3B
Glaus a guy who may get a minor league deal, which would eliminate any compensation pick. He still has power, but his recent injuries may prevent him from being able to play 3B. He could be a DH option in the AL or a back-up 1B/PH in the NL. Being in that situation puts Glaus on everyone's radar. I would like to see the Rangers sign him, as I believe he could excell DH'ing there. Baltimore makes sense as well, as long as Luke Scott can play 1B. Prediction: Too Unpredictable To Determine Yet.
Rich Harden, RP
Harden is an enigma. When healthy, he is an ace. He has actually had one of his worst season this year in 140+ innings. He would be a great risk move similar to Brad Penny last season, which makes is destination unknown. I will predict that he does what Penny did. Verdict: Signs with Red Sox.
Randy Wolf, SP
Wolf is a product of the NL. He would get eaten up alive if he had to pitch to a DH every start. He knows this, which is why he has stayed in the NL his whole career. There will be plenty of teams interested, with Wolf having his best season ever. The Mets make a lot of sense, as do the Dodgers (his current employer). In the end, I think the Mets need him more than the Dodgers. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
The list of type A relievers is usually a little less impressive. Darren Oliver will either not get offered arbitration or end up back in LA with the Angels. No team will give up a pick for him, just like last off-season. Valverde will be the one with the most suitors, as the better Trevor Hoffman will probably re-sign with Milwaukee. Atlanta will re-sign one of Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, count on it. Which one remains to be seem. When healthy, Gonzalez is better and left-handed. I say the Braves re-up Gonzo, leaving Soriano to walk. Billy Wagner wants to close, and if he keeps pitching as well as he has been, he will get his chance somewhere. Kevin Gregg and LaTroy Hawkins are both quality arms, who will have a bunch of teams interested. John Grabow will get to choose whichever team he wants. Most of my predictions are just wild speculation.
Jose Valverde, RP. Verdict: Signs with Tigers.
Mike Gonzalez, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Braves.
Rafael Soriano, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mariners.
Trevor Hoffman, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Brewers.
Kevin Gregg, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
Latroy Hawkins, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Astros.
John Grabow, RP. Verdict: Signs with Yankees.
Billy Wagner, RP. Verdict: Signs with Cardinals.
Darren Oliver, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Brandon League's New Persona
Brandon League looks like Rufio.
In fact, I am going to start the rumour that Brandon League played Rufio in the 90's movie Hook.
If it looks tru, it probably is.
When questioned for comment regarding the brawl with Yankees, League had this to say regarding Jorge Posada:
"(Jorge Posada) is a fart factory, slug-slimed, sack-of-rat-guts-in-cat-vomit, cheesy, scab-picked, pimple-squeezing finger bandage. He is a week old maggot burger with everything on it and flies on the side!"
Hey, if it's in italics, it must be true.
Examining The Free Agent Market
Thanks to MLB Trade Rumours, I do not have to go through every team roster and figure out who is an upcoming Free Agent myself. MLBTR has done the leg work for me, and now I have a list to go by.
There will be more Free Agents added when guys are non-tendered, which should be a considerable number with all the over-paid utility players and finge starters (I'm looking right at you, Jose Bautista).
So, until those guys are released into the pool, I will go by what we know.
I am going to start with guys with options in their contracts today. Tomorrow I will run through the top options at each position, then Saturday, I will go through the potentially under-rated guys who could sign minor league deals and make an impact off a Major League bench.
C - Michael Barrett (TOR). Barrett was pretty shitty early in the season, then hurt himself trying to catch a foul ball. He then hit like shit in 10 minor league rehab games. His option better be declined, and he will be lucky to get a minor league deal. Remember, Paul LoDuca and Johnny Estrada never got signed and were much better hitters than Barrett. Verdict: Option Declined
C - Ramon Hernandez (CIN). Hernandez has shown a good OBP this season, but his batting average is well below his norm. If he can keep this batting eye and bring his power and average back closer to his carerr averages, he could be back to a high level catcher. His option is $8M, so I doubt the Reds will bring him back. Verdict: Option Declined. I can see many teams interested in his services despite a very low slugging percentage.
C - Victor Martinez (BOS). V-Mart has been great in Boston since he came over from the Indians. He will be back with the Sox barring Theo Epstein losing his mind. Martinez is one of the premier catchers in baseball and a $7.7M option is an incredible value. Verdict: Option Excercised
C - Miguel Olivo (KC). Olivo is a low OBP negative impact baseball player. I do not care what anybody says, no major leaguer should ever OBP under .300 and Olivo hasn't been over in a full season since 2004 (which was his only season over). His career OBP is .276, which is dreadful. He has 20 HR though this season, so some team will sign him and he will destroy rallies for yet another team lured in by his power. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Yorvit Torrealba (COL). Yorvit is an interesting study. One season he will post a decent OBP with a poor SLG, then the next his OBP will be horrendous and his SLG will increase. His OBP+ has remained remarkably consistant. That sonsistancy says one thing: he does not belong in the Major Leagues. Torrealba is no better than any career minor leaguers that the Rockies could bring in to take his place. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Jason Varitek (BOS). Varitek has become a very poor hitter, though he still has some pop and possesses a decent eye. Varitek could be a good signing for a team needing a 1 year stop gap and a veteran presence, but Boston should not bring him back. His option is a mutual one, so if Varitek thinks $3M is more than he would get elsewhere, he will excercise his option. Since he can't handle the knuckleball, he is not an ideal back-up for Boston. Verdict: Team Declines Option, Player Also Declines.
C - Gregg Zaun (TB). Zaun is the best dressed free agent and also the best OBP option of any available catcher. He has a little pop as well, so he should make some team very happy next season. He is worthy of starting on a lot of teams and he should choose the situation that allows him that. Since 2004, Zaun has been a league average hitter. And not just average for a catcher. Zaun is a great pick-up for a team needing a 1 or 2 year starter. His option is affordable and if Tampa thinks that Navarro isn't good enough to start, they will excercise Zaun's option. Verdict: Tampa Excercises Option.
1B - Ross Gload (FLA). Gload has been exactly as advertised for the Marlins this season. He is a good hitter, who plays solid 1B defense and can play the corner OF if needed. He doesn't possess much power though, which means he will be a bench option the rest of his career. For $2.6M, the Marlins should pass. Gload will find a job somewhere though and will continue to be a great bench presence. Verdict: Option Declined.
1B - Chad Tracy (ARI). Tracy picked a bad year to be awful. He has declined pretty steeply the last 2 seasons and his power seems to have vanished. He may be a good bench option for someone, as he is able to play 1B and 3B. But, he is not worthy of a $7M contract. Verdict: Optioned Declined.
2B/3B - Akinori Iwamura (TB). I find it weird that Iwamura gets to bypass MLB regulations and become a free agent after 3 seasons. Fucking Japanese. Except Ichiro. I fucking love Ichiro. Anyways, Iwamura is a fantastic player, and has become a fantastic 2B. I wish he would steal some more bases, but that is just nit-picking. His option is $4.25M, which is affordable and reasonable. Tampa has 2 options at league minimum in Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez who could be as good, which makes it seem unlikely that his option gets excercised. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Alex Gonzalez (BOS). Gonzalez plays an excellent defensive SS and has always had some pop, which has made him a valuable player. His option is for $6M and the Red Sox kind of need a SS. It makes sense that they excercise the option and bring him back. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Jack Wilson (SEA). With an $8.4M option, the Mariners would be retarded to excercise the option. No matter how badly a team needs a SS, there is no excuse for paying one of the worst offensive players in baseball. Taking away 2007 and 2004, he hasn't OPS'd over .700 in his career (.684 career). That is pretty terrible. His defense is considered near the top in the Major Leagues though, so he does hold some value, but his power is almost non-exsistant and his on base skills leave a lot to be desired. Verdict: Option Declined.
3B - Pedro Feliz (PHI). $5M is pretty reasonable for a player with Feliz's skills and track record. He has been remarkably consistant the last 3 seasons, with an 81 OPS+ each season. He has power and plays plus defense, combined with the lack of other top available options, means that he is Philadelphia's best option next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
3B - Melvin Mora (BAL). Mora has very quietly been pretty great from 2002 until 2008, averaging 20 HR per season and an OPS of .820 over that time. He hasn't been good this season, losing playing time to Ty Wigginton in anticipation of Mora leaving (at an $8M option). He should have no trouble finding a starting job based on his track record. 2010 should help to determine if 2009 is an off year or the start of a steep decline. Verdict: Option Declined.
LF - Carl Crawford (TB). Crawford has a $10.25M option, which Tamp will exercise unless they are retarded. They will be able to trade him regardless, so declining is wasting an oportunity to get a couple really good prospects. Since Crawford has been outstanding since 2003 when healthy, it should be an easy decision for Tampa. Verdict: Option Exercised. Crawford Traded To Angels.
LF - Manny Ramirez (LAD). Mannywood holds a $20M player option. Based on his suspension and the way teams are shying away from cancerous contracts, Manny should decide to stay in LA. Verdict: Option Exercised.
CF - Coco Crisp (KC). The Royals hold an $8M option on Coco. He is a good player, but for $8M, the Royals can go out and a comparable Crisp and a couple other players. They have a ready replacement on the roster in Mitch Maier. It would be stupid to keep Crisp at that rate, but Dayton Moore has been known to be very stupid (acquiring Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betencourt, blocking Kila Monster with Jacobs and Shealy). Verdict: Option Exercised. Immediately Regretted.
RF - Jermaine Dye (CWS). At $12M, Dye's option is a steep price to pay for a DH. He is an incredible hitter though and there will be many teams willing to trow money at a guy who can mash like Dye. Since 2004, he has averaged 30 HR a season. That is impressively consistant. It will be a tough decision for Chicago, but in the end I believe they will decide that Dye is their best power threat and that they need him. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RF - Austin Kearns (WSH). At $10M all I have to say is: LMAO. And I never use faggy internet lingo lightly. I literally laughed so hard I shit my pants a little when I saw that Kearns had a $10M option. That will get declined so fast Kearns won't realize that is has been declined until he shows up in the spring and is excorted off National's property. He has some good seasons in his past and his defense is regarded as positive with an explosive arm. He should get a job somewhere, as a 4th OF on a good team or a starter on a bad one. Verdict: Option Declined Happily.
SP - Freddy Garcia (CWS). At no more than $3M next season, Garcia is a pretty good value for next season as a 5th starter. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Jon Garland (LAD). $10M option for a mediocre innings eater. I highly doubt the Dodgers will exercise the option, but Garland does hold value in the 5th spot in the rotation. You always know he will take his turn and put up league averagish numbers. In the end, I think that the Dodgers decide to see what else they can get for $7.5M. Verdict: Option Declined.
SP - Tim Hudson (ATL). Hudson is an interesting case. He has a $12M option for next season, but has missed most of this season after injury. It seems Atlanta wants to exercise his deal and trade one of their other starters. I find this stupid, but it makes sense if they feel they can only find offense through trade. Hudson has looked decent overall in a few starts since he was activated, so maybe he can be 100% and effective next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Cliff Lee (PHI). With an $8M option and great numbers since coming from Cleveland, the decision should be easy. Cliff Lee is an ace. $8M is amazing value for an ace. Verdict: Option Exercised.
P - Braden Looper (MIL). $6.5M is his option price. He has a nice win total this seaosn, which is largely inflated by great offensive support. Looper is a below average pitcher as a starter. There is no reason to give Looper $6.5M when you could probably sign a better option for less. Verdict: Option Declined.
P - Tim Wakefield (BOS). With a never ending $4M option, Wakefield is an interesting case. There is no reason not to exercise the deal just to see what you have. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Brandon Webb (ARI). Thought to be a no-brainer pre-season, Webb has become a serious discussion. His $8.5M option is extrememly team friendly if Webb is healthy. He hasn't been this season and there is concern he won't be next season as well. With a legit ace already in toe, Arizona may decide to use the money on a pitcher with a better chance of health in 2010. In the end, I believe Arizona will decide to keep him around as a good faith gesture to avoid burning a bridge with a great pitcher. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Rafael Betencourt (COL). Colorado inherited a $5.4M option when they acquired the quality set-up man. Colorado would be silly to exercise the contract in my opinion. Relief pitching is so inconsistant year to year that it is unwise to give millions to non-elite arms. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Doug Brocail (HOU). He has pitched less than 15 innings this season. That is reason alone to deline the 40+ year old's $2.85M option. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - J.J. Putz (NYM). Putz has spent some time hurt this season, and with a $9.15M option, the mets should use that money on an OF. That is a lot of money for a relief arm with more questions than answers. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Takashi Saito (BOS). Saito was a great sign by Boston after the Dodgers assumed he wasn't healthy enough to contribute in 2009. His option is for $5.5M, which is too much to spend on a middle reliever. The Red Sox are too deep to spend that on a veteran reliever. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Alan Embree (COL). $3M. Alan Embree has been decent, but he can be replaced. The Rockies must have needed to throw the option in to make a deal happen before the season. They shouldn't exercise it, but they probably will. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Wil Ohman (LAD). The Dodgers hold a $2.2M option on Ohman. That is a reasonable price for a quality lefty. I say exercise it. Ohman seems worth it. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Brian Shouse (TB). The Rays hold an undisclosed option, believed to be around $2M. Shouse has been effective and should continue to be effective. Verdict: Option Exercised.
There will be more Free Agents added when guys are non-tendered, which should be a considerable number with all the over-paid utility players and finge starters (I'm looking right at you, Jose Bautista).
So, until those guys are released into the pool, I will go by what we know.
I am going to start with guys with options in their contracts today. Tomorrow I will run through the top options at each position, then Saturday, I will go through the potentially under-rated guys who could sign minor league deals and make an impact off a Major League bench.
C - Michael Barrett (TOR). Barrett was pretty shitty early in the season, then hurt himself trying to catch a foul ball. He then hit like shit in 10 minor league rehab games. His option better be declined, and he will be lucky to get a minor league deal. Remember, Paul LoDuca and Johnny Estrada never got signed and were much better hitters than Barrett. Verdict: Option Declined
C - Ramon Hernandez (CIN). Hernandez has shown a good OBP this season, but his batting average is well below his norm. If he can keep this batting eye and bring his power and average back closer to his carerr averages, he could be back to a high level catcher. His option is $8M, so I doubt the Reds will bring him back. Verdict: Option Declined. I can see many teams interested in his services despite a very low slugging percentage.
C - Victor Martinez (BOS). V-Mart has been great in Boston since he came over from the Indians. He will be back with the Sox barring Theo Epstein losing his mind. Martinez is one of the premier catchers in baseball and a $7.7M option is an incredible value. Verdict: Option Excercised
C - Miguel Olivo (KC). Olivo is a low OBP negative impact baseball player. I do not care what anybody says, no major leaguer should ever OBP under .300 and Olivo hasn't been over in a full season since 2004 (which was his only season over). His career OBP is .276, which is dreadful. He has 20 HR though this season, so some team will sign him and he will destroy rallies for yet another team lured in by his power. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Yorvit Torrealba (COL). Yorvit is an interesting study. One season he will post a decent OBP with a poor SLG, then the next his OBP will be horrendous and his SLG will increase. His OBP+ has remained remarkably consistant. That sonsistancy says one thing: he does not belong in the Major Leagues. Torrealba is no better than any career minor leaguers that the Rockies could bring in to take his place. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Jason Varitek (BOS). Varitek has become a very poor hitter, though he still has some pop and possesses a decent eye. Varitek could be a good signing for a team needing a 1 year stop gap and a veteran presence, but Boston should not bring him back. His option is a mutual one, so if Varitek thinks $3M is more than he would get elsewhere, he will excercise his option. Since he can't handle the knuckleball, he is not an ideal back-up for Boston. Verdict: Team Declines Option, Player Also Declines.
C - Gregg Zaun (TB). Zaun is the best dressed free agent and also the best OBP option of any available catcher. He has a little pop as well, so he should make some team very happy next season. He is worthy of starting on a lot of teams and he should choose the situation that allows him that. Since 2004, Zaun has been a league average hitter. And not just average for a catcher. Zaun is a great pick-up for a team needing a 1 or 2 year starter. His option is affordable and if Tampa thinks that Navarro isn't good enough to start, they will excercise Zaun's option. Verdict: Tampa Excercises Option.
1B - Ross Gload (FLA). Gload has been exactly as advertised for the Marlins this season. He is a good hitter, who plays solid 1B defense and can play the corner OF if needed. He doesn't possess much power though, which means he will be a bench option the rest of his career. For $2.6M, the Marlins should pass. Gload will find a job somewhere though and will continue to be a great bench presence. Verdict: Option Declined.
1B - Chad Tracy (ARI). Tracy picked a bad year to be awful. He has declined pretty steeply the last 2 seasons and his power seems to have vanished. He may be a good bench option for someone, as he is able to play 1B and 3B. But, he is not worthy of a $7M contract. Verdict: Optioned Declined.
2B/3B - Akinori Iwamura (TB). I find it weird that Iwamura gets to bypass MLB regulations and become a free agent after 3 seasons. Fucking Japanese. Except Ichiro. I fucking love Ichiro. Anyways, Iwamura is a fantastic player, and has become a fantastic 2B. I wish he would steal some more bases, but that is just nit-picking. His option is $4.25M, which is affordable and reasonable. Tampa has 2 options at league minimum in Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez who could be as good, which makes it seem unlikely that his option gets excercised. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Alex Gonzalez (BOS). Gonzalez plays an excellent defensive SS and has always had some pop, which has made him a valuable player. His option is for $6M and the Red Sox kind of need a SS. It makes sense that they excercise the option and bring him back. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Jack Wilson (SEA). With an $8.4M option, the Mariners would be retarded to excercise the option. No matter how badly a team needs a SS, there is no excuse for paying one of the worst offensive players in baseball. Taking away 2007 and 2004, he hasn't OPS'd over .700 in his career (.684 career). That is pretty terrible. His defense is considered near the top in the Major Leagues though, so he does hold some value, but his power is almost non-exsistant and his on base skills leave a lot to be desired. Verdict: Option Declined.
3B - Pedro Feliz (PHI). $5M is pretty reasonable for a player with Feliz's skills and track record. He has been remarkably consistant the last 3 seasons, with an 81 OPS+ each season. He has power and plays plus defense, combined with the lack of other top available options, means that he is Philadelphia's best option next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
3B - Melvin Mora (BAL). Mora has very quietly been pretty great from 2002 until 2008, averaging 20 HR per season and an OPS of .820 over that time. He hasn't been good this season, losing playing time to Ty Wigginton in anticipation of Mora leaving (at an $8M option). He should have no trouble finding a starting job based on his track record. 2010 should help to determine if 2009 is an off year or the start of a steep decline. Verdict: Option Declined.
LF - Carl Crawford (TB). Crawford has a $10.25M option, which Tamp will exercise unless they are retarded. They will be able to trade him regardless, so declining is wasting an oportunity to get a couple really good prospects. Since Crawford has been outstanding since 2003 when healthy, it should be an easy decision for Tampa. Verdict: Option Exercised. Crawford Traded To Angels.
LF - Manny Ramirez (LAD). Mannywood holds a $20M player option. Based on his suspension and the way teams are shying away from cancerous contracts, Manny should decide to stay in LA. Verdict: Option Exercised.
CF - Coco Crisp (KC). The Royals hold an $8M option on Coco. He is a good player, but for $8M, the Royals can go out and a comparable Crisp and a couple other players. They have a ready replacement on the roster in Mitch Maier. It would be stupid to keep Crisp at that rate, but Dayton Moore has been known to be very stupid (acquiring Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betencourt, blocking Kila Monster with Jacobs and Shealy). Verdict: Option Exercised. Immediately Regretted.
RF - Jermaine Dye (CWS). At $12M, Dye's option is a steep price to pay for a DH. He is an incredible hitter though and there will be many teams willing to trow money at a guy who can mash like Dye. Since 2004, he has averaged 30 HR a season. That is impressively consistant. It will be a tough decision for Chicago, but in the end I believe they will decide that Dye is their best power threat and that they need him. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RF - Austin Kearns (WSH). At $10M all I have to say is: LMAO. And I never use faggy internet lingo lightly. I literally laughed so hard I shit my pants a little when I saw that Kearns had a $10M option. That will get declined so fast Kearns won't realize that is has been declined until he shows up in the spring and is excorted off National's property. He has some good seasons in his past and his defense is regarded as positive with an explosive arm. He should get a job somewhere, as a 4th OF on a good team or a starter on a bad one. Verdict: Option Declined Happily.
SP - Freddy Garcia (CWS). At no more than $3M next season, Garcia is a pretty good value for next season as a 5th starter. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Jon Garland (LAD). $10M option for a mediocre innings eater. I highly doubt the Dodgers will exercise the option, but Garland does hold value in the 5th spot in the rotation. You always know he will take his turn and put up league averagish numbers. In the end, I think that the Dodgers decide to see what else they can get for $7.5M. Verdict: Option Declined.
SP - Tim Hudson (ATL). Hudson is an interesting case. He has a $12M option for next season, but has missed most of this season after injury. It seems Atlanta wants to exercise his deal and trade one of their other starters. I find this stupid, but it makes sense if they feel they can only find offense through trade. Hudson has looked decent overall in a few starts since he was activated, so maybe he can be 100% and effective next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Cliff Lee (PHI). With an $8M option and great numbers since coming from Cleveland, the decision should be easy. Cliff Lee is an ace. $8M is amazing value for an ace. Verdict: Option Exercised.
P - Braden Looper (MIL). $6.5M is his option price. He has a nice win total this seaosn, which is largely inflated by great offensive support. Looper is a below average pitcher as a starter. There is no reason to give Looper $6.5M when you could probably sign a better option for less. Verdict: Option Declined.
P - Tim Wakefield (BOS). With a never ending $4M option, Wakefield is an interesting case. There is no reason not to exercise the deal just to see what you have. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Brandon Webb (ARI). Thought to be a no-brainer pre-season, Webb has become a serious discussion. His $8.5M option is extrememly team friendly if Webb is healthy. He hasn't been this season and there is concern he won't be next season as well. With a legit ace already in toe, Arizona may decide to use the money on a pitcher with a better chance of health in 2010. In the end, I believe Arizona will decide to keep him around as a good faith gesture to avoid burning a bridge with a great pitcher. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Rafael Betencourt (COL). Colorado inherited a $5.4M option when they acquired the quality set-up man. Colorado would be silly to exercise the contract in my opinion. Relief pitching is so inconsistant year to year that it is unwise to give millions to non-elite arms. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Doug Brocail (HOU). He has pitched less than 15 innings this season. That is reason alone to deline the 40+ year old's $2.85M option. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - J.J. Putz (NYM). Putz has spent some time hurt this season, and with a $9.15M option, the mets should use that money on an OF. That is a lot of money for a relief arm with more questions than answers. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Takashi Saito (BOS). Saito was a great sign by Boston after the Dodgers assumed he wasn't healthy enough to contribute in 2009. His option is for $5.5M, which is too much to spend on a middle reliever. The Red Sox are too deep to spend that on a veteran reliever. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Alan Embree (COL). $3M. Alan Embree has been decent, but he can be replaced. The Rockies must have needed to throw the option in to make a deal happen before the season. They shouldn't exercise it, but they probably will. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Wil Ohman (LAD). The Dodgers hold a $2.2M option on Ohman. That is a reasonable price for a quality lefty. I say exercise it. Ohman seems worth it. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Brian Shouse (TB). The Rays hold an undisclosed option, believed to be around $2M. Shouse has been effective and should continue to be effective. Verdict: Option Exercised.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Holy Potato
So, it has been forever since I put finger to plastic and wrote something here. There are 3 reasons for that.
1. My family and I are moving. Just down a floor in the same building, but it still sucks.
2. I am an idiot, who by way of being an idiot, tore my achiles tendon.
3. I was in Timmins, Ontario for a week. I love it there.
With that out of the way, let's move onto some Jays stuff. I haven't watched the Jays since about mid-August. I have been paying attention to boxscores and line-up configuration thanks to Yahoo and Drunk Jays Fans.
So, I have a mojor axe to grind with the way Cito has been running this team.
Since August 20, Kevin Millar has started in 9 games. That is roughly 9 too many. Millar should have been released near the end of August, so that another team could sign his clutch-ness and leadership for the playoff run.
The fact that Travis Snider has not been playing RF every day is ridiculous. There is no need to sit him against lefties. HE SHOULD BE PLAYING EVERY DAY. They might as well leave him in the minors and use any one of the lefty hitting OF that can't hit lefties floating around baseball. Luis Gonzalez is still a free agent. Maybe he can hit 5th behind Millar.
And how terrible is Edwin Encarnacion? Very. That's how terrible he is. He can't hit. I thought that is what he COULD do. He can barely field either, so that's a plus. It is always nice to employ a baseball player who can't hit or field, but the Jays got plenty.
Phillips has been up for over a week and he still hasn't been used yet. If he can hit, he can be our back-up catcher next season. I'm very upset about the lack of playing time for him.
This is how the line-up should look the rest of the way.
1. SS - Marco Scutaro
2. 2B -Aaron Hill
3. LF - Adam Lind
4. DH - Randy Ruiz
5. RF - Travis Snider
6. CF - Vernon Wells
7. 1B - Lyle Overbay (Including lefties)
8. C - Rod Barajas (Phillips against half the righties)
9. 3B - Jose Bautista (Encarnacion about 40%)
There is no reason not to put guys in spots that they may be in next season. If the Jays are to contend next season, Snider must be a middle-of-the-order threat. Randy Ruiz can be replaced next season with a big time slugger, but why not use him in the clean-up spot? He has power and actually a pretty good hitter. Better than Vernon, anyways.
Encarnacion better be traded in the off-season and Baustista non-tendered. Neither has any value at all, and if either player sees signigicant time in Toronto next season, I won't be responsible for my actions.
Free Agents After 2009:
SS Marco Scutaro $1.1M
IF John McDonald $1.9M
1B/D-Bag Kevin Millar $850K
Non-Tender Candidates:
3B/OF Jose Bautista $2.4M+
Trade Candidates:
3B Edwin Encarnacion $4.75M in 2010
LHP Brian Tallet 2 more years of control
LHP Scott Downs $4M in 2010
RHP Brandon League 3 more years of team control
RHP Jeremy Accardo 3 more years of team control
1B Lyle Overbay $7M in 2010
Jose Bautista's at least $3M dollars in 2010 can be spent much better, as seen with the way contracts were handed out this past off-season.
So, with many holes to fill and not much in AAA ready to step in and make any kind of impact, the Jays will need to be creative to fill their holes. My suggestions are as followed.
1. Try to trade for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee has soured on him. He is a great defender at SS, so even if he doesn't come back around to his mid 20's homers and .275+ average he is extremely valuable. Now, I know the Brewers know how valuable he is, but they have a better option (in their opinion) in Alcides Escobar. If Hardy can hit 15-20 homers and hit .250+ while playing great defense, he would be a very valuable Jay, if hitting in spots 6-8, as he is not a high OBP player. My trade proposal begins with pitching. Scott Richmond, Brian Tallet, David Purcey. If they want relief, offer Scott Downs. Or Jeremy Accardo or Brandon League. Try to get Edwin Encarnacion in there. Maybe they saw something they liked in Cincinatti and be willing to take him in return as well. A rotation member for the Brewers would be a nice pick-up for the Brewers for a guy who has become a spare part in a sense. Scott Downs or any 2 of the others, and the Brewers bite.
2. Sign Chone Figgins. Offer him up to 4 years at up to $10M per season. Play him at 3B, and lead him off. He has become a plus defender at 3B, so no more holding your breath they way I do when Edwin throws to 1B. He also adds an element to the Jays line-up that they lack: speed. It seems like forever since the Jays have had a 40 SB threat. Alex Rios swiped the occasional bag, but he was never a guy that the other pitcher really seemed to worry about. Figgins leading off would be dynamite. It may be a tough sell to get him to come to Toronto, but I have heard reports that he is a Cito fan, and if any one offensive player is worth over-paying for, it is a guy who can change the entire look of your team.
3. Sign a high-OBP catcher to start. Rod Barajas drives me crazy. His sub .280 OBP is pathetic and I don't care how many homers he hits. Gregg Zaun should should never have been his back-up, and I propose offering him or Jason Varitek the chance to be the starting catcher next season. Kyle Phillips would back up (if he gets a chance to show anything this Spetember). If J.P. Arencibia shows improvement in plate discipline, then he comes up and splits time with the veteran.
4. Sign or trade for a lefty mashing 1B. Lyle Overbay can destroy righties and plays a great 1B, all he needs is to never face a lefty if his team hopes to contend. Troy Glaus is a FA and mashes lefties, but he hates the turf here. Maybe Randy Ruiz can be that guy. Or Brian Dopirak if he has a strong spring.
5. Find a DH, ideally a right handed power hitter. Whether Randy Ruiz can do it for a full season remains to be seen, but the Jays want to contend they cannot go into the season with him as their go-to DH. I would love to see the Jays sign Carlos Delgado. Coming off an injury and nearing the end of his career, the true GBOAT can no longer play 1B well enough. His value is very low, so $5M guaranteed should get a deal signed. If not Carlos, than Jim Thome is a power hitting option. Some right handed options that are available: Jason Bay, pushing Lind to DH. Or Vlad Guerrero, who would be a great signing and more likely than Bay, who will command a ton due to lack of a injury history.
With these changes, the 2010 starting 9 would be:
C - Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
1B - Lyle Overbay (vs RHP) and Ruiz/Dopirak (vs LHP)
2B - Aaron Hill
3B - Chone Figgins
SS - J.J. Hardy
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Travis Snider
DH - Vlad Guerrero
The way I would construct the bench would be simple.
Back-up catcher - Kyle Phillips
Overbay platoon - Randy Ruiz/Brian Dopirak
Middle Infielder - Jerry Hairston Jr.
Outfielder - Marlon Byrd
Hairston and Byrd would be great signings, as both can play the OF against tough lefties if Snider needs to sit. Hairston would also be an acceptable SS, 2B, or 3B if there are injuries to the starters. Byrd, in particular, can push Wells to improve and to be the productive player he should be.
I would construct the line-up as follows:
1. Chone Figgins
2. Aaron Hill
3. Adam Lind
4. Vlad Guerrero
5. Lyle Overbay and Ruiz/Dopirak
6. Vernon Wells
7. Travis Snider
8. J.J. Hardy
9. Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
With Hill and Lind establishing themselves as legit threats, addind Guerrero and Figgins would make this team a threat to any pitcher. Wells is not likely to have another season as dreadfull as this one next year, so maybe he can re-emerge as a threat. Having Varitek or Zaun at the bottom allows a solid OBp guy to turn the line-up over and keep rallies going.
The pitching staff is something that doesn't need help. Roy Halladay is amazing. Shaun Marcum should be back 100% next season and Ricky Romero is a solid #3 starter. Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczinski could round out the rotation. Scott Richmond and Brian Tallet will be around as well, as well as the mid-season return of Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan could return as well.
The bull-pen should be a strength as well, as some younger guys could force their way up mid-season. Tim Collins and Danny Farquhar made it to AA this season and could be ready after some AAA time next season. Having a group that could include Zach Stewart, Accardo, Camp, League, Downs, Roenicke, Carlson, Tallet, Richmond, Frasor is a great group if used in their proper roles. I would like to see Frasor given the closers role and Downs in the set-up role. Working backwards, it allows guys like League and Roenicke not to be put in high-pressure situations, where they don't belong.
Well, enough ranting. There is a season to finish.
1. My family and I are moving. Just down a floor in the same building, but it still sucks.
2. I am an idiot, who by way of being an idiot, tore my achiles tendon.
3. I was in Timmins, Ontario for a week. I love it there.
With that out of the way, let's move onto some Jays stuff. I haven't watched the Jays since about mid-August. I have been paying attention to boxscores and line-up configuration thanks to Yahoo and Drunk Jays Fans.
So, I have a mojor axe to grind with the way Cito has been running this team.
Since August 20, Kevin Millar has started in 9 games. That is roughly 9 too many. Millar should have been released near the end of August, so that another team could sign his clutch-ness and leadership for the playoff run.
The fact that Travis Snider has not been playing RF every day is ridiculous. There is no need to sit him against lefties. HE SHOULD BE PLAYING EVERY DAY. They might as well leave him in the minors and use any one of the lefty hitting OF that can't hit lefties floating around baseball. Luis Gonzalez is still a free agent. Maybe he can hit 5th behind Millar.
And how terrible is Edwin Encarnacion? Very. That's how terrible he is. He can't hit. I thought that is what he COULD do. He can barely field either, so that's a plus. It is always nice to employ a baseball player who can't hit or field, but the Jays got plenty.
Phillips has been up for over a week and he still hasn't been used yet. If he can hit, he can be our back-up catcher next season. I'm very upset about the lack of playing time for him.
This is how the line-up should look the rest of the way.
1. SS - Marco Scutaro
2. 2B -Aaron Hill
3. LF - Adam Lind
4. DH - Randy Ruiz
5. RF - Travis Snider
6. CF - Vernon Wells
7. 1B - Lyle Overbay (Including lefties)
8. C - Rod Barajas (Phillips against half the righties)
9. 3B - Jose Bautista (Encarnacion about 40%)
There is no reason not to put guys in spots that they may be in next season. If the Jays are to contend next season, Snider must be a middle-of-the-order threat. Randy Ruiz can be replaced next season with a big time slugger, but why not use him in the clean-up spot? He has power and actually a pretty good hitter. Better than Vernon, anyways.
Encarnacion better be traded in the off-season and Baustista non-tendered. Neither has any value at all, and if either player sees signigicant time in Toronto next season, I won't be responsible for my actions.
Free Agents After 2009:
SS Marco Scutaro $1.1M
IF John McDonald $1.9M
1B/D-Bag Kevin Millar $850K
Non-Tender Candidates:
3B/OF Jose Bautista $2.4M+
Trade Candidates:
3B Edwin Encarnacion $4.75M in 2010
LHP Brian Tallet 2 more years of control
LHP Scott Downs $4M in 2010
RHP Brandon League 3 more years of team control
RHP Jeremy Accardo 3 more years of team control
1B Lyle Overbay $7M in 2010
Jose Bautista's at least $3M dollars in 2010 can be spent much better, as seen with the way contracts were handed out this past off-season.
So, with many holes to fill and not much in AAA ready to step in and make any kind of impact, the Jays will need to be creative to fill their holes. My suggestions are as followed.
1. Try to trade for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee has soured on him. He is a great defender at SS, so even if he doesn't come back around to his mid 20's homers and .275+ average he is extremely valuable. Now, I know the Brewers know how valuable he is, but they have a better option (in their opinion) in Alcides Escobar. If Hardy can hit 15-20 homers and hit .250+ while playing great defense, he would be a very valuable Jay, if hitting in spots 6-8, as he is not a high OBP player. My trade proposal begins with pitching. Scott Richmond, Brian Tallet, David Purcey. If they want relief, offer Scott Downs. Or Jeremy Accardo or Brandon League. Try to get Edwin Encarnacion in there. Maybe they saw something they liked in Cincinatti and be willing to take him in return as well. A rotation member for the Brewers would be a nice pick-up for the Brewers for a guy who has become a spare part in a sense. Scott Downs or any 2 of the others, and the Brewers bite.
2. Sign Chone Figgins. Offer him up to 4 years at up to $10M per season. Play him at 3B, and lead him off. He has become a plus defender at 3B, so no more holding your breath they way I do when Edwin throws to 1B. He also adds an element to the Jays line-up that they lack: speed. It seems like forever since the Jays have had a 40 SB threat. Alex Rios swiped the occasional bag, but he was never a guy that the other pitcher really seemed to worry about. Figgins leading off would be dynamite. It may be a tough sell to get him to come to Toronto, but I have heard reports that he is a Cito fan, and if any one offensive player is worth over-paying for, it is a guy who can change the entire look of your team.
3. Sign a high-OBP catcher to start. Rod Barajas drives me crazy. His sub .280 OBP is pathetic and I don't care how many homers he hits. Gregg Zaun should should never have been his back-up, and I propose offering him or Jason Varitek the chance to be the starting catcher next season. Kyle Phillips would back up (if he gets a chance to show anything this Spetember). If J.P. Arencibia shows improvement in plate discipline, then he comes up and splits time with the veteran.
4. Sign or trade for a lefty mashing 1B. Lyle Overbay can destroy righties and plays a great 1B, all he needs is to never face a lefty if his team hopes to contend. Troy Glaus is a FA and mashes lefties, but he hates the turf here. Maybe Randy Ruiz can be that guy. Or Brian Dopirak if he has a strong spring.
5. Find a DH, ideally a right handed power hitter. Whether Randy Ruiz can do it for a full season remains to be seen, but the Jays want to contend they cannot go into the season with him as their go-to DH. I would love to see the Jays sign Carlos Delgado. Coming off an injury and nearing the end of his career, the true GBOAT can no longer play 1B well enough. His value is very low, so $5M guaranteed should get a deal signed. If not Carlos, than Jim Thome is a power hitting option. Some right handed options that are available: Jason Bay, pushing Lind to DH. Or Vlad Guerrero, who would be a great signing and more likely than Bay, who will command a ton due to lack of a injury history.
With these changes, the 2010 starting 9 would be:
C - Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
1B - Lyle Overbay (vs RHP) and Ruiz/Dopirak (vs LHP)
2B - Aaron Hill
3B - Chone Figgins
SS - J.J. Hardy
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Travis Snider
DH - Vlad Guerrero
The way I would construct the bench would be simple.
Back-up catcher - Kyle Phillips
Overbay platoon - Randy Ruiz/Brian Dopirak
Middle Infielder - Jerry Hairston Jr.
Outfielder - Marlon Byrd
Hairston and Byrd would be great signings, as both can play the OF against tough lefties if Snider needs to sit. Hairston would also be an acceptable SS, 2B, or 3B if there are injuries to the starters. Byrd, in particular, can push Wells to improve and to be the productive player he should be.
I would construct the line-up as follows:
1. Chone Figgins
2. Aaron Hill
3. Adam Lind
4. Vlad Guerrero
5. Lyle Overbay and Ruiz/Dopirak
6. Vernon Wells
7. Travis Snider
8. J.J. Hardy
9. Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
With Hill and Lind establishing themselves as legit threats, addind Guerrero and Figgins would make this team a threat to any pitcher. Wells is not likely to have another season as dreadfull as this one next year, so maybe he can re-emerge as a threat. Having Varitek or Zaun at the bottom allows a solid OBp guy to turn the line-up over and keep rallies going.
The pitching staff is something that doesn't need help. Roy Halladay is amazing. Shaun Marcum should be back 100% next season and Ricky Romero is a solid #3 starter. Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczinski could round out the rotation. Scott Richmond and Brian Tallet will be around as well, as well as the mid-season return of Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan could return as well.
The bull-pen should be a strength as well, as some younger guys could force their way up mid-season. Tim Collins and Danny Farquhar made it to AA this season and could be ready after some AAA time next season. Having a group that could include Zach Stewart, Accardo, Camp, League, Downs, Roenicke, Carlson, Tallet, Richmond, Frasor is a great group if used in their proper roles. I would like to see Frasor given the closers role and Downs in the set-up role. Working backwards, it allows guys like League and Roenicke not to be put in high-pressure situations, where they don't belong.
Well, enough ranting. There is a season to finish.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
A Look Back: 2006 Top Prospects
I wanted to look back on Baseball America's top 10 list for the Blue Jays and see just how accurate they have been with the Jays top prospects in recent memory.
I will starting with, you guessed it, 2006.
The top 10:
Dustin McGowan, RHP (Best FB, Best Slider)
D-Mac pitched 27.1 innings in the majors, with poor results. He also didn't pitch that well in AAA while he has down there. His stock was falling. In 2007, he dominated AAA briefly, and was solid in 169.2 IP in the majors. He was again decent in 2008 before suffering an injury, which has put his career in jeopardy. BA hit the nail on this one, as McGowan has all the talent to be a number 1 starter, but injury problems have prevented it so far.
Ricky Romero, LHP
Being a 1st round draft pick the year before, this was kind of the default place to put him in a weak farm system. He pitched very well in A+ before struggling a bit in AA. 2007 was a repeat of 2006, same levels, similar results. 2008 continued his lack of success in AA, but got a promotion to AAA anyway and showed that he deserved it by pitching very well. In 2009, he earned an opening day rotation spot and with the expection of 3 Boston Red Sox games, has been tremendous. He is a top candidate for Rookie of the Year, and should be a rotation member for years to come.
David Purcey, LHP
Another 1st round pick, Purcey is a talented, but erractic lefty. He put up sub-par numbers in AA/AAA in 2006, and followed it up by being pretty bad in AA in 2007. 2008, he dominated AAA and then put up some poor numbers in the majors, with expection of a few starts against the Tampa Rays. 2009 has been a nightmare for Purcey, pitching terribly in the majors and pretty badly in AAA. His future is looking dimmer with each passing start.
Adam Lind, OF/1B (Best Hitter For Average)
My curre favourite Blue Jay, Lind did everything he could to prove himself as the future in 2006, putting up incredible numbers in AA and AAA before earning a september call-up, where he showed a sweet swing and put up really good numbers. 2007 was a very disappointing season, as he performed poorly and was sent to AAA, where he hit incredibly well. 2008 was supposed to be his year, but when he struggled, he was demoted. He hit very well in AAA, earning a call-up with the hiring of Cito. Lind went on the fiish the season hitting very well, leading to his incredible 2009. I always compared him to Shawn Green, and it is starting to look like a good comparison.
Josh Banks, RHP (Best Control)
In AAA in 2006/2007, Banks pitched poorly, although he didn't walk too many guys. He got a call-up in 2007 and pitched poorly. In 2008, he again pitched bad in AAA and was acquired by San Diego, where he pitched bad in AAA. He did pitch decently in 85.1 Major League innings in 2008. 2009 has been a similar story for Banks, getting lit up in the majors. He has pitched very well in the minors this year though.
Casey Janssen, RHP
2006 was Janssen's first MLB season. He pitched pretty unimpressively in AAA, and was nothing special in the majors. 2007 was a fantastic season for Janssen, pitching in 70 games out of the bullpen. He suffered an injury though, and missed the entire 2008 season. His comeback in 2009 has been interesting. He struggled as a starter, and was sent to the minors to work things out. He pitched at 4 different levels in the minors, starting and relieving. He is back in the majors now, coming out of the bullpen. I think he belongs there, and hope he can somehow recapture the success he found in 2007.
Brandon League, RHP
Earning the nickname "Mensa" for his cluelessness and downright ridiculousness, Brandon League is one the most talented and frustrated relief pitchers in the Major Leagues. Armed with a mid-90's sinking fastball and a nasty splitter, League can be lights out when he is on. Which is about a third of the time. In 42.2 MLB innings and in his minor league time in 2006, he was stellar. 2007, he pitched well in the minors, but poorly in the bigs. 2008 was anoth "on" year in the majors, and also pitched well in the minors. So far in 2009, all spent in the majors, he has been very erriatic. He seems to be a one bad year, one good year kind of pitcher. His inconsistancy will prevent him from ever being a shut down guy at the back of a good Major League bullpen.
Fransisco Rosario, RHP
Rosario was always a guy with great pure stuff. He just never seemed able to harnass it for extended periods of time. He pitched well as a starter/reliever in AAA in 2006, leading to his MLB debut, where he was inconsistant and pretty awfull. He went to the Phillies system in 2007, pitching poorly in the MLB and A ball. 2008 was bad, as he pithed only 2.2 IP in A ball. He hasn't been in afiliated ball since.
Curtis Thigpen, C (Best Strike-Zone Disc.)
Earning his "best strike-zone discipline" label, he had an impressive OBP in 2006 in AA/AAA, leading to his being labeled "catcher of the future." After starting very well in AAA, 2007 was the year of his MLB call-up, where he was poor. 2008 was a bad year, as he was dreadfull in the majors and terrible in AAA. He was shipped to Oakland prior to 2009, but hasn't played this year in MLB/AAA.
Vince Perkins, LHP
A Canadian, Perkins has bounced around a lot for a guy on a top 10 list. I guess it shows how shallow the Jays farm has been, although Marcum should've been in the top 10. Perkins didn't pitch in 2006, and was sent to Milwaukee. He pitched badly in 2007, leading to his banishment from afiliated ball. He pitched some inconsistant ball in the independants in 2008, but apparently it was enough to get a minor league deal with the Cubs. in 2009, he has been very good in AA/AAA. Still just 27 years old, Perkins still has a shot as a lefty out the bullpen.
Honerable Mentions:
Best Power Hitter: Chip Cannon
Cannon showed why he labeled as such by belting 27 HR in 2006 in AA. He somehow didn't get promoted in 2007, andstruggled in a repeat of AA. 2008 was his AAA season and his power vanished, taking away all the value he possessed. He signed on with the Rays organization, where he is a AA back-up, hitting terribly.
Faster Baserunner, Best Defensive OF, Best OF Arm: Miguel Negron
"Alex" Negron has bounced around alot in his minor league career, and the Jays gave up on the talented 23 year old mid season, as he ended the season in the Cubs organization, hitting well. 2007, he moved to the Mets organization, where he shat the AAA bed, but made some recovery in AA. He signed on with the White Sox and spent 2008 hitting very well in AA, and is playing pretty decent ball in AAA in 2009. He seems to be a terrible base stealer, as he has been caught 79 times, while only stealing 138 bases over his minor league career.
Best Athlete: Yuber Rodriguez
It seems that this honor is bestowed upon a random player who doesn't put up good numbers, but has a bunch of "tools." Well, Yuber fits that as his minor league numbers, aside from 2004 (which was amazing), are dreadfull. He seems to be decent base stealer, but his OBP is so bad that he doesn't get many chances. He left the Jays system in 2008 for the Reds and played awfull. Since no 2009 data is present, I will assume he killed himself. Sad story.
Best Curveball: Kyle Yates
After pitching well as a 23 year old in AA in 2006, he was mediocre in his 2007 repeat of AA. 2008 was a bad year, as he pitched terribly, and was released. He pitched allright in Indy ball. 2009 has a blank slate, but he is still just 26. He my turn up in Indy ball yet.
Best Changeup: Shaun Marcum
2006 was a back and forth year for Marcum, who started and relieved in the MLB, to mediocre results. He also started and relieved in AAA to great results. 2007 was a good year as he established himself as a future member of the rotation with good numbers as a starter in the Majors. 2008 was validation of his success in 2007, as he was excellent before getting hurt. He recovered pretty quickly from Tommy John and has pitched 5 rehab starts and they have all been good. He is on track to be back in the MLB rotation for 2010.
Best Defensive Catcher: Erik Kratz
His defense may have been what got him noticed, but without some offense you never move up the ladder. Kratz never hit above .250 from 2006-2008 at any level for the Jays. In 2009, Kratz found AAA in the Pirates system to his liking and has put up some good numbers (I believe he was a AAA all-star as well). If his defense is still highly regarded, he could see a future as a MLB back-up.
Best Defensive IF, Best IF Arm: Manuel Mayorson
2006 and 2007 were spent in AA, where he was average, and showed flashes of speed, but poor base-running instincts. He moved the Marlins organization in 2008, where he tore up AA and played well in AAA. He started off 2009 poorly in AAA and has appeared to moved back the Jays organization. He is hitting poorly in a small AA sample size.
Well, that was interesting. It took a long time, and I doubt I will end up doing 2007's top prospects, as it mostly full of guys still working their way up with poor results. And that would be depressing as fuck.
I will starting with, you guessed it, 2006.
The top 10:
Dustin McGowan, RHP (Best FB, Best Slider)
D-Mac pitched 27.1 innings in the majors, with poor results. He also didn't pitch that well in AAA while he has down there. His stock was falling. In 2007, he dominated AAA briefly, and was solid in 169.2 IP in the majors. He was again decent in 2008 before suffering an injury, which has put his career in jeopardy. BA hit the nail on this one, as McGowan has all the talent to be a number 1 starter, but injury problems have prevented it so far.
Ricky Romero, LHP
Being a 1st round draft pick the year before, this was kind of the default place to put him in a weak farm system. He pitched very well in A+ before struggling a bit in AA. 2007 was a repeat of 2006, same levels, similar results. 2008 continued his lack of success in AA, but got a promotion to AAA anyway and showed that he deserved it by pitching very well. In 2009, he earned an opening day rotation spot and with the expection of 3 Boston Red Sox games, has been tremendous. He is a top candidate for Rookie of the Year, and should be a rotation member for years to come.
David Purcey, LHP
Another 1st round pick, Purcey is a talented, but erractic lefty. He put up sub-par numbers in AA/AAA in 2006, and followed it up by being pretty bad in AA in 2007. 2008, he dominated AAA and then put up some poor numbers in the majors, with expection of a few starts against the Tampa Rays. 2009 has been a nightmare for Purcey, pitching terribly in the majors and pretty badly in AAA. His future is looking dimmer with each passing start.
Adam Lind, OF/1B (Best Hitter For Average)
My curre favourite Blue Jay, Lind did everything he could to prove himself as the future in 2006, putting up incredible numbers in AA and AAA before earning a september call-up, where he showed a sweet swing and put up really good numbers. 2007 was a very disappointing season, as he performed poorly and was sent to AAA, where he hit incredibly well. 2008 was supposed to be his year, but when he struggled, he was demoted. He hit very well in AAA, earning a call-up with the hiring of Cito. Lind went on the fiish the season hitting very well, leading to his incredible 2009. I always compared him to Shawn Green, and it is starting to look like a good comparison.
Josh Banks, RHP (Best Control)
In AAA in 2006/2007, Banks pitched poorly, although he didn't walk too many guys. He got a call-up in 2007 and pitched poorly. In 2008, he again pitched bad in AAA and was acquired by San Diego, where he pitched bad in AAA. He did pitch decently in 85.1 Major League innings in 2008. 2009 has been a similar story for Banks, getting lit up in the majors. He has pitched very well in the minors this year though.
Casey Janssen, RHP
2006 was Janssen's first MLB season. He pitched pretty unimpressively in AAA, and was nothing special in the majors. 2007 was a fantastic season for Janssen, pitching in 70 games out of the bullpen. He suffered an injury though, and missed the entire 2008 season. His comeback in 2009 has been interesting. He struggled as a starter, and was sent to the minors to work things out. He pitched at 4 different levels in the minors, starting and relieving. He is back in the majors now, coming out of the bullpen. I think he belongs there, and hope he can somehow recapture the success he found in 2007.
Brandon League, RHP
Earning the nickname "Mensa" for his cluelessness and downright ridiculousness, Brandon League is one the most talented and frustrated relief pitchers in the Major Leagues. Armed with a mid-90's sinking fastball and a nasty splitter, League can be lights out when he is on. Which is about a third of the time. In 42.2 MLB innings and in his minor league time in 2006, he was stellar. 2007, he pitched well in the minors, but poorly in the bigs. 2008 was anoth "on" year in the majors, and also pitched well in the minors. So far in 2009, all spent in the majors, he has been very erriatic. He seems to be a one bad year, one good year kind of pitcher. His inconsistancy will prevent him from ever being a shut down guy at the back of a good Major League bullpen.
Fransisco Rosario, RHP
Rosario was always a guy with great pure stuff. He just never seemed able to harnass it for extended periods of time. He pitched well as a starter/reliever in AAA in 2006, leading to his MLB debut, where he was inconsistant and pretty awfull. He went to the Phillies system in 2007, pitching poorly in the MLB and A ball. 2008 was bad, as he pithed only 2.2 IP in A ball. He hasn't been in afiliated ball since.
Curtis Thigpen, C (Best Strike-Zone Disc.)
Earning his "best strike-zone discipline" label, he had an impressive OBP in 2006 in AA/AAA, leading to his being labeled "catcher of the future." After starting very well in AAA, 2007 was the year of his MLB call-up, where he was poor. 2008 was a bad year, as he was dreadfull in the majors and terrible in AAA. He was shipped to Oakland prior to 2009, but hasn't played this year in MLB/AAA.
Vince Perkins, LHP
A Canadian, Perkins has bounced around a lot for a guy on a top 10 list. I guess it shows how shallow the Jays farm has been, although Marcum should've been in the top 10. Perkins didn't pitch in 2006, and was sent to Milwaukee. He pitched badly in 2007, leading to his banishment from afiliated ball. He pitched some inconsistant ball in the independants in 2008, but apparently it was enough to get a minor league deal with the Cubs. in 2009, he has been very good in AA/AAA. Still just 27 years old, Perkins still has a shot as a lefty out the bullpen.
Honerable Mentions:
Best Power Hitter: Chip Cannon
Cannon showed why he labeled as such by belting 27 HR in 2006 in AA. He somehow didn't get promoted in 2007, andstruggled in a repeat of AA. 2008 was his AAA season and his power vanished, taking away all the value he possessed. He signed on with the Rays organization, where he is a AA back-up, hitting terribly.
Faster Baserunner, Best Defensive OF, Best OF Arm: Miguel Negron
"Alex" Negron has bounced around alot in his minor league career, and the Jays gave up on the talented 23 year old mid season, as he ended the season in the Cubs organization, hitting well. 2007, he moved to the Mets organization, where he shat the AAA bed, but made some recovery in AA. He signed on with the White Sox and spent 2008 hitting very well in AA, and is playing pretty decent ball in AAA in 2009. He seems to be a terrible base stealer, as he has been caught 79 times, while only stealing 138 bases over his minor league career.
Best Athlete: Yuber Rodriguez
It seems that this honor is bestowed upon a random player who doesn't put up good numbers, but has a bunch of "tools." Well, Yuber fits that as his minor league numbers, aside from 2004 (which was amazing), are dreadfull. He seems to be decent base stealer, but his OBP is so bad that he doesn't get many chances. He left the Jays system in 2008 for the Reds and played awfull. Since no 2009 data is present, I will assume he killed himself. Sad story.
Best Curveball: Kyle Yates
After pitching well as a 23 year old in AA in 2006, he was mediocre in his 2007 repeat of AA. 2008 was a bad year, as he pitched terribly, and was released. He pitched allright in Indy ball. 2009 has a blank slate, but he is still just 26. He my turn up in Indy ball yet.
Best Changeup: Shaun Marcum
2006 was a back and forth year for Marcum, who started and relieved in the MLB, to mediocre results. He also started and relieved in AAA to great results. 2007 was a good year as he established himself as a future member of the rotation with good numbers as a starter in the Majors. 2008 was validation of his success in 2007, as he was excellent before getting hurt. He recovered pretty quickly from Tommy John and has pitched 5 rehab starts and they have all been good. He is on track to be back in the MLB rotation for 2010.
Best Defensive Catcher: Erik Kratz
His defense may have been what got him noticed, but without some offense you never move up the ladder. Kratz never hit above .250 from 2006-2008 at any level for the Jays. In 2009, Kratz found AAA in the Pirates system to his liking and has put up some good numbers (I believe he was a AAA all-star as well). If his defense is still highly regarded, he could see a future as a MLB back-up.
Best Defensive IF, Best IF Arm: Manuel Mayorson
2006 and 2007 were spent in AA, where he was average, and showed flashes of speed, but poor base-running instincts. He moved the Marlins organization in 2008, where he tore up AA and played well in AAA. He started off 2009 poorly in AAA and has appeared to moved back the Jays organization. He is hitting poorly in a small AA sample size.
Well, that was interesting. It took a long time, and I doubt I will end up doing 2007's top prospects, as it mostly full of guys still working their way up with poor results. And that would be depressing as fuck.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
