So, with less than 2 weeks remaining, it is time to look back at how the Jays have have done this season, offensively.
Catcher
Four players have seen time behind the plate this season. Rod Barajas has had a shitty season. Do not be fooled by the pretty number of 18, which is his HR total. Rod has been terrible behind the plate, with an OBP of .264 and only 19 walks all season, leading to a 74 OPS+. Being a catcher, you would think he would have a pretty good idea of what is and isn't a strike. Dreadfull, and thank god he is a free agent.
Raul Chavez has played the second most. He has actually been worse than Barajas, with a 66 OPS+, with 2 HR. He is a better hitter than Rod, but has almost non-exsistant power. There are conflicting reports on whether he is a free agent after the season, but his defense is amazing, and he would be nice to have as a back-up.
Michael Barrett was the early season back-up, but a shoulder injury has side-lined him for the season, pretty much. I like the signing when it happened, as he was a no-risk, potential upgrade at a troublesome position. He had a 41 OPS+ in 19 plate appearances with 1 HR. He has an option for next season, and it would not be terrible to see him brought back to compete for the back-up job.
Kyle Phillips is the "prospect" of the catchers that have played this year. He is 25 years old and had a steller season in AAA. He has been pretty bad in 11 plate appearances, posting a 18 OPS+. He is a good hitter, and September should have been the month to see if he can hit major league pitchers a little.
Overall, the catchers position has been pretty terrible all season (although they did hit 19 HR as a group). The positional OPS+ was 76, which is well below average. Only 4 teams had a lower OPS than the Jays at catcher.
First Base
Three men have played 1B this season, and surprisingly, Jose Bautista was not one of them after seeing a little time there in 2008. Lyle Overbay was the starter the majority of the time, facing mainly right-handed pitchers. Overbay has been fantastic this season, posting a 121 OPS+ and hitting 48 extra base hits. Lyle need a platoon partner at this stage in his career, but he has shown that he can pound righties, while playing top flight defense.
Kevin Millar has been the most dissapointing player this season, when including expectations. He was supposed to come in and do what Lyle did against left-handed pitchers. His OPS+ versus lefties was .722 which isn't terrible, but his numbers versus righties were horrendous, which a .545 OPS. Overall, a 69 OPS+ is terrible for a 1B/DH.
Randy Ruiz has played very little 1B, so his 4 at bats in this slot are not worth duscussing.
Overall, the Jays are 22nd in the Majors in OPS at .814. They really need Overbay's platoon partner to do his job next season. Randy Ruiz could be an excellent choice to be that guy, and judging by his performance as a DH, he can adequately do the job.
Second Base
Four guys have played 2B this season. Aaron Hill has been great this season in regards to power and production. It would be nice if he could walk a little more and use the whole field better, but it is hard to complain about Hill's season, in which he has a 115 OPS+. With 33 HR and 101 RsBI, Hill has been the elite 2B in the American League this season. He is well deserving of the Silver Slugger that he will win this season.
John McDonald has played the second most at 2B with 55 innings. Joe Inglett has played 20 innings, and Marco Scutaro has 4 innings at 2B.
Overall, they have the 4th highest OPS at the position, the most HR, total bases, and the most RsBI. Aaron Hill has been amazing this season and the Jays should seriously look at using him as the clean-up hitter next season behind Adam Lind.
Third Base
Overall, the Jays have been about league average in OPS this season, but that is due to Scott Rolen, who is no longer with us. Aside from Scott, 4 others have played the hot corner.
Edwin Encarnacion, who was acquired in the Rolen trade, has played the most. His 85 OPS+ isn't terrible, and it has been improving this month. He is showing enough improvement to give a little hope for next season from him. He has some power, as he has 6 HR.
Jose Bautista has 209 innings at 3B, and has been pretty decent this season overall. As a 3B, he has a .605 OPS and 1 HR in 82 AB.
John McDonald has 78 innings at 3B and Kevin Millar has 1 inning at 3B.
It is tough to gauge the Jays at 3B, due to how well Rolen played in Toronto and how bad the rest of the guys were.
Short Stop
Marco Scutaro has been the primary SS this season and has had a break-out/career season. He has scored the 2nd most runs of all SS this season and the 4th highest OBP. Marco's 109 OPS+ has been icredible to watch this season, but he is a free agent and there is a high chance he is not back in Toronto next season.
John McDonald is the only other player with SS time this season. We all know his deal, he plays great defense and can't hit. Well, while that is definately true, Johnny has shown some pop this season with 3 HR.
Overall, the Jays rank pretty well in comparison to baseball sue to Scutaro's big season. They rank 4th in runs scored, 5th in OBP, and 5th in OPS. They are in the top 10 in hits, SLG%, doubles, HR, total bases, and batting average.
Left Field
The outfield corners have been kind of a revolving door this season. Seven guys have played in LF this season, with Adam Lind leading the way. Since he has more DH time this season, I will go over him in detail there, but his LF numbers are pretty nice too. In fact, his rate stats are better as a LF than a DH. He has 14 HR in LF with 40 RsBI. His .316 average and .991 OPS are incredible, along with his 20 doubles.
Travis Snider has the 2nd most innings in LF with 357. His numbers seem week, but his 94 OPS+ says otherwise. Sure, it is not what was expected, but being slightly below average at such a young age is pretty good. He tore apart AAA pitching when he was demoted early and has come back up and hit for power, but not for average as of yet.
Jose Bautista had a lot of early season LF action in place of Snider. As a LF, he has been steller offensively. His .384 OBP is very nice, but his SLG% was lower than I expected it to be. His power seemed to have dissappeared this season, but he emmerged with some impressive plate discipline.
Joe Inglett has been pretty allright this season with a 85 OPS+. His average is usually pretty decent, as is his walk total. His lack of power hurts, especially if he is playing more OF than 2B.
David Delucci, Russ Adams, and John McDonald all saw over 20 innings in LF with pretty terrible offense.
Overall, the Jays were 9th in baseball with a .810 OPS in LF. The rest of the numbers range from average to bad. Adam Lind's time in LF makes them respectable overall.
Centre Field
Vernon Wells. He hasn't been as bad as publicized, with a 90 OPS+. The he gets media fucked, you'd think he was hitting worse than J-Mac. His 15 HR are kind of pathetic from him, as are his 66 RsBI. His 34 doubles are nice, though.
Alex Rios has the 2nd most innings with 61. Jose Bautista has 31 innings in CF, while Joe Inglett played 1 inning.
Overall, besides doubles and HR, the Jays are in the bottom 10 in almost every category in CF. Wells will need to bounce back to the better than average hitter that he is next season if the Jays are to show any semblance of respectability.
Right Field
The Jays are worse in RF than any other position on the team. Alex Rios really wasn't that bad, with a 95 OPS+ in 915 innings. Since he has left, Jose Bautista and Travis Snider have splitt RF duties.
Bautista has been brutal offensively in RF with a .739 OPS. Snider has been oven worse in RF with a .701 OPS.
Joe Inglett is the other RF with 75 innings of .687 OPS.
Overall, with the really bad performances of Bautista, Snider, and Inglett while playing RF and Alex Rios being not good, the Jays are left with some of the worst production out of RF in baseball.
Designated Hitter
Adam Lind has been terrific. He has been a little better as a LF, but still has been steller when DHing with a .854 OPS. Adding in Randy Ruiz and his good production in 25 games as a DH (.878 OPS) gives you a good place to start. Unfortunately, Kevin Millar's poor 21 DH strarts and the parade of 1 or 2 game DHs such as Russ Adams, David Dellucci, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista, Marco Scutaro, Travis Snider, and Vernon Wells bring the numbers down a little.
Overall, the Jays are about average accross the board in the American League at DH. Next season, the Jays need to decide whether Adam Lind is a DH or a LF. My vote is for DH, as he is pretty brutal in LF.
Well, that is a look back at how the Jays have done position by position. The remaining 9 games shouldn't change the results too much.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
TUF Season 10: Week 2
So, My favourite show on television is in it's second week back. It is looking like it could be an exciting season with the trash talk between Rashad & Rampage, but the fights could be really lackluster is they go more than 1 round.
As I saw tonight, monster Wes Shivers (ex NFL reject) is not fit to be a professional fighter. The dude has massive power and can put someone out if he ever figures out how to lead his opponent's chin like a Drew Bledsoe spiral.
He looked like I would have looked into a second round of a fight.
James McSweeney looked fucked scared to death to get within reach of the Shiv, and with good reason. McSweeney, though, started landing thuderous leg-kicks and I thought he took the 1st round, but it was close.
The 2nd round was McSweeney getting in a shot and Shivers not moving an inch from the corner he chose to chill in. McSweeney almost ended it with a head kick after a nice right-hand, but couldn't put him away.
Two things I noticed about the fight: 1. Shivers is a cock. He wouldn't start the fight with a glove touch and after he punted McSweeney's nuts across the cage, he wouldn't tap gloves again. What a cock. 2. Rampage is fucking stupid.
The second point is many fold. The 1st, he is a terrible coach. The guy is brutal at picking fights. During his season against Forrest, I thought his choices sucked, but maybe he just didn't know any better. But after week 1, where he put his stand-up fighter with zero ground skills up against the other team's best wrestler, I made up my mind.
Then, this week he chooses immobile object to go against Rashad's number 1 pick? Give me a break Rampage.
The second, and biggest, reason he is a fucking idiot is his recent decision to quit the UFC and MMA for acting. Specifically, he is quitting to play B.A. in an A-Team movie that will suck pretty hard.
Now, Rampage's last fight was against Keith Jardine, a good fighter, but not a big money draw. Rampage got paid $325,000 for the fight (including a win bonus), not including any ammount he got for sponsorships and percentages of the gate and future DVD sales. His fight against Rashad at the end of the season could have gotten him $500,000 guaranteed with a potential total earnings of over $1M.
There is no way that Rampage will get paid big money for his movie role (which is probably why he is getting the part). Rampage is turning down guaranteed huge money for the hope that he can turn a good performance in a joke of a movie into a huge movie career. That shit won't happen. Rampage will never make $1M for a movie. No way.
Anyways, back to the show. James McSweeney ended up winning the fight by majority decision, and Rashad gained control of the fights. He did what I thought he would and chose Kimbo. What surprised me is that he put him up against Roy Nelson.
In my opinion, Roy Nelson was the biggest name on this season. Sure, Kimbo was the more recognizable, but Nelson was the first IFL Heavyweight Champ and defended it twice before IFL folded. Nelson is the real deal and should not have even had to go through the Ultimate Fighter to make it in the UFC.
So, next week should be the big draw for the season. For the show's sake, I hope Kimbo wins. The ratings will plumet if Kimbo is eliminated, as there is no coach pay-off this season. All the back and forth that we will see with Rashad and Rampage will lead nowhere, and it's a shame. That was a fight I was looking forward to.
Oh well. can't wait for next week.
As I saw tonight, monster Wes Shivers (ex NFL reject) is not fit to be a professional fighter. The dude has massive power and can put someone out if he ever figures out how to lead his opponent's chin like a Drew Bledsoe spiral.
He looked like I would have looked into a second round of a fight.
James McSweeney looked fucked scared to death to get within reach of the Shiv, and with good reason. McSweeney, though, started landing thuderous leg-kicks and I thought he took the 1st round, but it was close.
The 2nd round was McSweeney getting in a shot and Shivers not moving an inch from the corner he chose to chill in. McSweeney almost ended it with a head kick after a nice right-hand, but couldn't put him away.
Two things I noticed about the fight: 1. Shivers is a cock. He wouldn't start the fight with a glove touch and after he punted McSweeney's nuts across the cage, he wouldn't tap gloves again. What a cock. 2. Rampage is fucking stupid.
The second point is many fold. The 1st, he is a terrible coach. The guy is brutal at picking fights. During his season against Forrest, I thought his choices sucked, but maybe he just didn't know any better. But after week 1, where he put his stand-up fighter with zero ground skills up against the other team's best wrestler, I made up my mind.
Then, this week he chooses immobile object to go against Rashad's number 1 pick? Give me a break Rampage.
The second, and biggest, reason he is a fucking idiot is his recent decision to quit the UFC and MMA for acting. Specifically, he is quitting to play B.A. in an A-Team movie that will suck pretty hard.
Now, Rampage's last fight was against Keith Jardine, a good fighter, but not a big money draw. Rampage got paid $325,000 for the fight (including a win bonus), not including any ammount he got for sponsorships and percentages of the gate and future DVD sales. His fight against Rashad at the end of the season could have gotten him $500,000 guaranteed with a potential total earnings of over $1M.
There is no way that Rampage will get paid big money for his movie role (which is probably why he is getting the part). Rampage is turning down guaranteed huge money for the hope that he can turn a good performance in a joke of a movie into a huge movie career. That shit won't happen. Rampage will never make $1M for a movie. No way.
Anyways, back to the show. James McSweeney ended up winning the fight by majority decision, and Rashad gained control of the fights. He did what I thought he would and chose Kimbo. What surprised me is that he put him up against Roy Nelson.
In my opinion, Roy Nelson was the biggest name on this season. Sure, Kimbo was the more recognizable, but Nelson was the first IFL Heavyweight Champ and defended it twice before IFL folded. Nelson is the real deal and should not have even had to go through the Ultimate Fighter to make it in the UFC.
So, next week should be the big draw for the season. For the show's sake, I hope Kimbo wins. The ratings will plumet if Kimbo is eliminated, as there is no coach pay-off this season. All the back and forth that we will see with Rashad and Rampage will lead nowhere, and it's a shame. That was a fight I was looking forward to.
Oh well. can't wait for next week.
Friday, September 18, 2009
The Free Agents: The Premium Talent
Yesterday, I posted on the upcoming players who have options on their contracts for 2010 and gave some personal insight on how I thought each situation would be handled.
Today, I am going to look at a few guys who I feel are the top of the class and where they could fit.
First, some clarification. I am basing the "premium" talent off of 2 things. The first is a type A free agent, regardless of if it is likely that his team offers arbitration. The second is personal opinion and bias. The type A stuff is a little, shall we say, poorly done. Some of the type A free agents are not very good. They are just players that have put up good enough counting stats and played a lot.
The type A guys will be the players who were clasified as such as of September 7th.
Jason Bay, OF / Matt Holliday, OF
Bay is probably the best available player this winter. He has put up a 131 OPS+ in his career, most of which was in Pittsburgh with no help around him. He has 3o+HR and 100+RsBI 4 of the last 5 seasons, and should have many suitors. The Red Sox, Angels, Mets and Yankees all have a need for an OF and are known to spend big. Let's stay focused there. Bay says he is very happy in Boston, and there is no reason for the two not to agree on something. Verdict: Bay Re-Signs with Red Sox. Holliday will be a consolation prize at a lower price. I can see him signing with the same teams, but I think there has been too much chatter for him to not end up in pin-stripes. Verdict: Holliday Signs with the Yankees.
Bobby Abreu, OF
For some reason, Abreu had to settle for the silent treatment this past off-season. The man with 11 straight 110+OPS+ seasons got ignored all winter. He eventually had to agree to a 1 year contract and has done remarkable, putting up his 12th straight season of well above average production. He has even stolen 29 bases. He should have a big market to play in and the same 4 will look at him that look at Jason Bay. He should be back to making big market money, which might price him out of some markets. The teams I see being very good fits are the Angels, Mets, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, and Giants. It will be a tough call as he is very valuable force in a line-up. Picture him getting on-base at a .400 clip in front of Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Scary. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Johnny Damon, OF
Damon is an interesting case, as a lot of value comes from his HR total, which is most likely inflated by new Yankee Stadium. He has averaged 19 HR per season in New York. Would he be so potent outside of the jet-stream? He averaged 14 HR is 4 seasons in Boston, so his power only looks slightly inflated. And when he started to emerge in Kansas city, he had 3 straight season with at least 14 HR. If he picks a hitter friendly park, he should be fine with the homers. If he goes to a place like Oakland (where he was kind of awful), then it could be trouble. I can see the Yankees keeping him, but he is an awfully weird choice for a DH in New York. It is realy tough to place Damon, as his only defensive position is LF, which is a spot usually reserved for premium run producers. He could probably play 1B, but again would be no more than acceptable at best offensively. Verdict: Re-Signs with the Yankees.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF
Vlad is pretty much relagated to DH duties for the rest of his career, eliminating any reasonable National League team. He still has power and still can hit for a good average, which should be good for any team looking for a DH. The problem is that teams are starting to use the DH as a spot to give their weaker defensive players and older guys a chance to rest while keeping their bat in the line-up. I think the Blue Jays would be a perfect fit, as they have a young OF that does not really need to stay off the field. 2009 is likely to be the first season that Vlad hasn't hit .300 or OBP'd .350, which is outstanding. He could probably be signed for about $8M-$10M on a 1 or 2 year contract. Seatle and the Tigers could also be interested. In the end, the best fit I see is Toronto, which won't happen. Verdict: Signs with Seattle.
Marco Scutaro, SS/2B
Marco is going to roll off a career year and turn it into millions of dollars and a muti-year contract. He fits in a lot of places. Boston if they decline A-Gonzalez. Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, Washington, St. Louis, and Chicago Cubs all have a need to certain degrees at SS. Marco could be a good lead-off hitter or a perfect number 2 hitter on a lot of teams. His versatility is also a factor, as he is also a very good 2B. It is tough to see any one of those teams actually actively pursuing Marco. St. Louis looks to be the most likely from that group, so that is where I will put him. Verdict: Signs with the Cardinals.
Orlando Cabrera, SS
The same teams will be in on Cabrera, as long as his type A label does not hinder him again. Minnesota should re-sign him, as he fits perfectly on their team. I also think that Washington will take a run at him if he is not offered arbitration. Verdict: Re-Signs with Minnesota.
Chone Figgins, 3B/2B/OF
The most coveted player could be Figgins, who can start at 3B or 2B in the infield or in the OF. Any team with an opening anywhere will look at Figgins. He could get big money, which eliminates most of his suitors. He probably ends up back in LA or with a team like the Blue Jays or Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Mets make a lot of sense in the NL, but the Braves will back down at the price. Figgins seems like a back-up plan in the OF to the Mets, but could start at 3B in St. Louis. I think the White Sox will make a serious run at him, as he is literally the perfect fit for their style. Verdict: Signs with the White Sox.
Andy Pettitte, SP
It seems to be Yankees or bust for Pettitte, yet again. But, why? If he is going to take around $5M, that should put a lot teams interested. Pettitte is no longer good enough to be a good starter in the AL East, so why not go be a good starter in the NL. The Dodgers make a ton of sense, with Joe Torre in fold. Houston could work, as he has played there and had a lot of success. As long as Pettitte doesn't carry too much sentiment than he can be a usefull starter for any team in baseball. There are also rumblings he may retire, which is stupid. He will be 38 next season, which is still kind of young. If he can average 15 wins for the next 5 seasons (not impossible) than he can win 300 games. I think he should try his hand in the NL West with the Dodgers and go for it. Verdict: Re-Signs with Yankees. Regreted by Both sides.
John Lackey, SP
Lackey is a stud. He has been a litle banged up the last 2 season, but has still up great numbers. He was a Cy contender in 2007 and can still be a top of the rotation force. The Angels have depth, but would be wise to try and retain their ace. Being from Texas immediately puts him in the crosshairs of the Rangers and Astros. Texas pride is about the only thing that has baffled me. Why a guy would want to pitch in that shoebox in Arlington or for a terrible team constructor in Houston is beyond me. But, with the Astros lack of monetary freedom (thanks to some recent big signings) and the Rangers finincial problems (which may or may not get resolved in time to make a bid at Lackey), both Texas teams seem out of the equation. He makes sense for every big market team, because you can never have too much pitching. The Yankees could use a better number 2 than Burnett, the Red Sox could use Dice-L insurance at the top of their rotation, the Mets could certainly use a legit option behind Johan. If the Cubs can trade Zambrano (unlikely), they could be bidders as well. Maybe even the Dodgers could make a play. In the end, I think Lackey stays put. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Benji Molina, C
Benji is the only type A free agent catcher, which should hurt his value and limit his suitors. The thing about Molina is this: he puts up good numbers on the surface, but is not even a league average offensive player. He is close, and he had 2 seasons in his career where he was league average or better (2005 and 2006). His value is in his power, but what Molina gives you, so will Rod Barajas. Molina is slightly better hitter, but they are close enough to not bother with Molina. Think about it. Would you give Molina $2M more per year over a longer deal and surrender a 1st or 2nd round draft choice when you could sign almost the same player for less per year over a shorter deal without being punished? Didn't think so. Still, there will be teams interested. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Orlando Hudson, 2B / Felipe Lopez, 2B/3B/SS
I am lumping them together here as they are actually pretty similar players. Hudson is the better player, but Felipe is closer than perceived. Lopez is picking a great time to play his best baseball since his inflated 2005. Since being traded to St. Louis last season, Lopez has hit well above .300, while OPS'ing about .375, which is outstanding. Hudson's advantage is in his consistancy. He has been consistantly above average the last 4 seasons, while Lopez goes back and forth. Teams that need a 2B include: Minnesota (if Casilla plays SS), KC (if they want to upgrade defense), White Sox, Seattle (if Jose Lopez gets shifted), Nationals (if Guzman stays at SS), Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and D-Backs. I see one of them in Chicago with the Cubs, most likely Lopez. Hudson has been linked to the Nationals (mostly the Nationals being very interested) and the Mets (if they can rid themselves of Luis Castillo). The Dodgers have said they won't get into a bidding war over Hudson, which leads me to believe they have a plan (which shouldn't be Blake DeWitt). Predictions: Hudson signs with Cubs, Lopez with Dodgers.
Troy Glaus, 1B/3B
Glaus a guy who may get a minor league deal, which would eliminate any compensation pick. He still has power, but his recent injuries may prevent him from being able to play 3B. He could be a DH option in the AL or a back-up 1B/PH in the NL. Being in that situation puts Glaus on everyone's radar. I would like to see the Rangers sign him, as I believe he could excell DH'ing there. Baltimore makes sense as well, as long as Luke Scott can play 1B. Prediction: Too Unpredictable To Determine Yet.
Rich Harden, RP
Harden is an enigma. When healthy, he is an ace. He has actually had one of his worst season this year in 140+ innings. He would be a great risk move similar to Brad Penny last season, which makes is destination unknown. I will predict that he does what Penny did. Verdict: Signs with Red Sox.
Randy Wolf, SP
Wolf is a product of the NL. He would get eaten up alive if he had to pitch to a DH every start. He knows this, which is why he has stayed in the NL his whole career. There will be plenty of teams interested, with Wolf having his best season ever. The Mets make a lot of sense, as do the Dodgers (his current employer). In the end, I think the Mets need him more than the Dodgers. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
The list of type A relievers is usually a little less impressive. Darren Oliver will either not get offered arbitration or end up back in LA with the Angels. No team will give up a pick for him, just like last off-season. Valverde will be the one with the most suitors, as the better Trevor Hoffman will probably re-sign with Milwaukee. Atlanta will re-sign one of Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, count on it. Which one remains to be seem. When healthy, Gonzalez is better and left-handed. I say the Braves re-up Gonzo, leaving Soriano to walk. Billy Wagner wants to close, and if he keeps pitching as well as he has been, he will get his chance somewhere. Kevin Gregg and LaTroy Hawkins are both quality arms, who will have a bunch of teams interested. John Grabow will get to choose whichever team he wants. Most of my predictions are just wild speculation.
Jose Valverde, RP. Verdict: Signs with Tigers.
Mike Gonzalez, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Braves.
Rafael Soriano, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mariners.
Trevor Hoffman, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Brewers.
Kevin Gregg, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
Latroy Hawkins, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Astros.
John Grabow, RP. Verdict: Signs with Yankees.
Billy Wagner, RP. Verdict: Signs with Cardinals.
Darren Oliver, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Today, I am going to look at a few guys who I feel are the top of the class and where they could fit.
First, some clarification. I am basing the "premium" talent off of 2 things. The first is a type A free agent, regardless of if it is likely that his team offers arbitration. The second is personal opinion and bias. The type A stuff is a little, shall we say, poorly done. Some of the type A free agents are not very good. They are just players that have put up good enough counting stats and played a lot.
The type A guys will be the players who were clasified as such as of September 7th.
Jason Bay, OF / Matt Holliday, OF
Bay is probably the best available player this winter. He has put up a 131 OPS+ in his career, most of which was in Pittsburgh with no help around him. He has 3o+HR and 100+RsBI 4 of the last 5 seasons, and should have many suitors. The Red Sox, Angels, Mets and Yankees all have a need for an OF and are known to spend big. Let's stay focused there. Bay says he is very happy in Boston, and there is no reason for the two not to agree on something. Verdict: Bay Re-Signs with Red Sox. Holliday will be a consolation prize at a lower price. I can see him signing with the same teams, but I think there has been too much chatter for him to not end up in pin-stripes. Verdict: Holliday Signs with the Yankees.
Bobby Abreu, OF
For some reason, Abreu had to settle for the silent treatment this past off-season. The man with 11 straight 110+OPS+ seasons got ignored all winter. He eventually had to agree to a 1 year contract and has done remarkable, putting up his 12th straight season of well above average production. He has even stolen 29 bases. He should have a big market to play in and the same 4 will look at him that look at Jason Bay. He should be back to making big market money, which might price him out of some markets. The teams I see being very good fits are the Angels, Mets, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, and Giants. It will be a tough call as he is very valuable force in a line-up. Picture him getting on-base at a .400 clip in front of Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Scary. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Johnny Damon, OF
Damon is an interesting case, as a lot of value comes from his HR total, which is most likely inflated by new Yankee Stadium. He has averaged 19 HR per season in New York. Would he be so potent outside of the jet-stream? He averaged 14 HR is 4 seasons in Boston, so his power only looks slightly inflated. And when he started to emerge in Kansas city, he had 3 straight season with at least 14 HR. If he picks a hitter friendly park, he should be fine with the homers. If he goes to a place like Oakland (where he was kind of awful), then it could be trouble. I can see the Yankees keeping him, but he is an awfully weird choice for a DH in New York. It is realy tough to place Damon, as his only defensive position is LF, which is a spot usually reserved for premium run producers. He could probably play 1B, but again would be no more than acceptable at best offensively. Verdict: Re-Signs with the Yankees.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF
Vlad is pretty much relagated to DH duties for the rest of his career, eliminating any reasonable National League team. He still has power and still can hit for a good average, which should be good for any team looking for a DH. The problem is that teams are starting to use the DH as a spot to give their weaker defensive players and older guys a chance to rest while keeping their bat in the line-up. I think the Blue Jays would be a perfect fit, as they have a young OF that does not really need to stay off the field. 2009 is likely to be the first season that Vlad hasn't hit .300 or OBP'd .350, which is outstanding. He could probably be signed for about $8M-$10M on a 1 or 2 year contract. Seatle and the Tigers could also be interested. In the end, the best fit I see is Toronto, which won't happen. Verdict: Signs with Seattle.
Marco Scutaro, SS/2B
Marco is going to roll off a career year and turn it into millions of dollars and a muti-year contract. He fits in a lot of places. Boston if they decline A-Gonzalez. Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, Washington, St. Louis, and Chicago Cubs all have a need to certain degrees at SS. Marco could be a good lead-off hitter or a perfect number 2 hitter on a lot of teams. His versatility is also a factor, as he is also a very good 2B. It is tough to see any one of those teams actually actively pursuing Marco. St. Louis looks to be the most likely from that group, so that is where I will put him. Verdict: Signs with the Cardinals.
Orlando Cabrera, SS
The same teams will be in on Cabrera, as long as his type A label does not hinder him again. Minnesota should re-sign him, as he fits perfectly on their team. I also think that Washington will take a run at him if he is not offered arbitration. Verdict: Re-Signs with Minnesota.
Chone Figgins, 3B/2B/OF
The most coveted player could be Figgins, who can start at 3B or 2B in the infield or in the OF. Any team with an opening anywhere will look at Figgins. He could get big money, which eliminates most of his suitors. He probably ends up back in LA or with a team like the Blue Jays or Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Mets make a lot of sense in the NL, but the Braves will back down at the price. Figgins seems like a back-up plan in the OF to the Mets, but could start at 3B in St. Louis. I think the White Sox will make a serious run at him, as he is literally the perfect fit for their style. Verdict: Signs with the White Sox.
Andy Pettitte, SP
It seems to be Yankees or bust for Pettitte, yet again. But, why? If he is going to take around $5M, that should put a lot teams interested. Pettitte is no longer good enough to be a good starter in the AL East, so why not go be a good starter in the NL. The Dodgers make a ton of sense, with Joe Torre in fold. Houston could work, as he has played there and had a lot of success. As long as Pettitte doesn't carry too much sentiment than he can be a usefull starter for any team in baseball. There are also rumblings he may retire, which is stupid. He will be 38 next season, which is still kind of young. If he can average 15 wins for the next 5 seasons (not impossible) than he can win 300 games. I think he should try his hand in the NL West with the Dodgers and go for it. Verdict: Re-Signs with Yankees. Regreted by Both sides.
John Lackey, SP
Lackey is a stud. He has been a litle banged up the last 2 season, but has still up great numbers. He was a Cy contender in 2007 and can still be a top of the rotation force. The Angels have depth, but would be wise to try and retain their ace. Being from Texas immediately puts him in the crosshairs of the Rangers and Astros. Texas pride is about the only thing that has baffled me. Why a guy would want to pitch in that shoebox in Arlington or for a terrible team constructor in Houston is beyond me. But, with the Astros lack of monetary freedom (thanks to some recent big signings) and the Rangers finincial problems (which may or may not get resolved in time to make a bid at Lackey), both Texas teams seem out of the equation. He makes sense for every big market team, because you can never have too much pitching. The Yankees could use a better number 2 than Burnett, the Red Sox could use Dice-L insurance at the top of their rotation, the Mets could certainly use a legit option behind Johan. If the Cubs can trade Zambrano (unlikely), they could be bidders as well. Maybe even the Dodgers could make a play. In the end, I think Lackey stays put. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Benji Molina, C
Benji is the only type A free agent catcher, which should hurt his value and limit his suitors. The thing about Molina is this: he puts up good numbers on the surface, but is not even a league average offensive player. He is close, and he had 2 seasons in his career where he was league average or better (2005 and 2006). His value is in his power, but what Molina gives you, so will Rod Barajas. Molina is slightly better hitter, but they are close enough to not bother with Molina. Think about it. Would you give Molina $2M more per year over a longer deal and surrender a 1st or 2nd round draft choice when you could sign almost the same player for less per year over a shorter deal without being punished? Didn't think so. Still, there will be teams interested. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.
Orlando Hudson, 2B / Felipe Lopez, 2B/3B/SS
I am lumping them together here as they are actually pretty similar players. Hudson is the better player, but Felipe is closer than perceived. Lopez is picking a great time to play his best baseball since his inflated 2005. Since being traded to St. Louis last season, Lopez has hit well above .300, while OPS'ing about .375, which is outstanding. Hudson's advantage is in his consistancy. He has been consistantly above average the last 4 seasons, while Lopez goes back and forth. Teams that need a 2B include: Minnesota (if Casilla plays SS), KC (if they want to upgrade defense), White Sox, Seattle (if Jose Lopez gets shifted), Nationals (if Guzman stays at SS), Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and D-Backs. I see one of them in Chicago with the Cubs, most likely Lopez. Hudson has been linked to the Nationals (mostly the Nationals being very interested) and the Mets (if they can rid themselves of Luis Castillo). The Dodgers have said they won't get into a bidding war over Hudson, which leads me to believe they have a plan (which shouldn't be Blake DeWitt). Predictions: Hudson signs with Cubs, Lopez with Dodgers.
Troy Glaus, 1B/3B
Glaus a guy who may get a minor league deal, which would eliminate any compensation pick. He still has power, but his recent injuries may prevent him from being able to play 3B. He could be a DH option in the AL or a back-up 1B/PH in the NL. Being in that situation puts Glaus on everyone's radar. I would like to see the Rangers sign him, as I believe he could excell DH'ing there. Baltimore makes sense as well, as long as Luke Scott can play 1B. Prediction: Too Unpredictable To Determine Yet.
Rich Harden, RP
Harden is an enigma. When healthy, he is an ace. He has actually had one of his worst season this year in 140+ innings. He would be a great risk move similar to Brad Penny last season, which makes is destination unknown. I will predict that he does what Penny did. Verdict: Signs with Red Sox.
Randy Wolf, SP
Wolf is a product of the NL. He would get eaten up alive if he had to pitch to a DH every start. He knows this, which is why he has stayed in the NL his whole career. There will be plenty of teams interested, with Wolf having his best season ever. The Mets make a lot of sense, as do the Dodgers (his current employer). In the end, I think the Mets need him more than the Dodgers. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
The list of type A relievers is usually a little less impressive. Darren Oliver will either not get offered arbitration or end up back in LA with the Angels. No team will give up a pick for him, just like last off-season. Valverde will be the one with the most suitors, as the better Trevor Hoffman will probably re-sign with Milwaukee. Atlanta will re-sign one of Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, count on it. Which one remains to be seem. When healthy, Gonzalez is better and left-handed. I say the Braves re-up Gonzo, leaving Soriano to walk. Billy Wagner wants to close, and if he keeps pitching as well as he has been, he will get his chance somewhere. Kevin Gregg and LaTroy Hawkins are both quality arms, who will have a bunch of teams interested. John Grabow will get to choose whichever team he wants. Most of my predictions are just wild speculation.
Jose Valverde, RP. Verdict: Signs with Tigers.
Mike Gonzalez, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Braves.
Rafael Soriano, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mariners.
Trevor Hoffman, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Brewers.
Kevin Gregg, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
Latroy Hawkins, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Astros.
John Grabow, RP. Verdict: Signs with Yankees.
Billy Wagner, RP. Verdict: Signs with Cardinals.
Darren Oliver, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Brandon League's New Persona
Brandon League looks like Rufio.
In fact, I am going to start the rumour that Brandon League played Rufio in the 90's movie Hook.
If it looks tru, it probably is.
When questioned for comment regarding the brawl with Yankees, League had this to say regarding Jorge Posada:
"(Jorge Posada) is a fart factory, slug-slimed, sack-of-rat-guts-in-cat-vomit, cheesy, scab-picked, pimple-squeezing finger bandage. He is a week old maggot burger with everything on it and flies on the side!"
Hey, if it's in italics, it must be true.
Examining The Free Agent Market
Thanks to MLB Trade Rumours, I do not have to go through every team roster and figure out who is an upcoming Free Agent myself. MLBTR has done the leg work for me, and now I have a list to go by.
There will be more Free Agents added when guys are non-tendered, which should be a considerable number with all the over-paid utility players and finge starters (I'm looking right at you, Jose Bautista).
So, until those guys are released into the pool, I will go by what we know.
I am going to start with guys with options in their contracts today. Tomorrow I will run through the top options at each position, then Saturday, I will go through the potentially under-rated guys who could sign minor league deals and make an impact off a Major League bench.
C - Michael Barrett (TOR). Barrett was pretty shitty early in the season, then hurt himself trying to catch a foul ball. He then hit like shit in 10 minor league rehab games. His option better be declined, and he will be lucky to get a minor league deal. Remember, Paul LoDuca and Johnny Estrada never got signed and were much better hitters than Barrett. Verdict: Option Declined
C - Ramon Hernandez (CIN). Hernandez has shown a good OBP this season, but his batting average is well below his norm. If he can keep this batting eye and bring his power and average back closer to his carerr averages, he could be back to a high level catcher. His option is $8M, so I doubt the Reds will bring him back. Verdict: Option Declined. I can see many teams interested in his services despite a very low slugging percentage.
C - Victor Martinez (BOS). V-Mart has been great in Boston since he came over from the Indians. He will be back with the Sox barring Theo Epstein losing his mind. Martinez is one of the premier catchers in baseball and a $7.7M option is an incredible value. Verdict: Option Excercised
C - Miguel Olivo (KC). Olivo is a low OBP negative impact baseball player. I do not care what anybody says, no major leaguer should ever OBP under .300 and Olivo hasn't been over in a full season since 2004 (which was his only season over). His career OBP is .276, which is dreadful. He has 20 HR though this season, so some team will sign him and he will destroy rallies for yet another team lured in by his power. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Yorvit Torrealba (COL). Yorvit is an interesting study. One season he will post a decent OBP with a poor SLG, then the next his OBP will be horrendous and his SLG will increase. His OBP+ has remained remarkably consistant. That sonsistancy says one thing: he does not belong in the Major Leagues. Torrealba is no better than any career minor leaguers that the Rockies could bring in to take his place. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Jason Varitek (BOS). Varitek has become a very poor hitter, though he still has some pop and possesses a decent eye. Varitek could be a good signing for a team needing a 1 year stop gap and a veteran presence, but Boston should not bring him back. His option is a mutual one, so if Varitek thinks $3M is more than he would get elsewhere, he will excercise his option. Since he can't handle the knuckleball, he is not an ideal back-up for Boston. Verdict: Team Declines Option, Player Also Declines.
C - Gregg Zaun (TB). Zaun is the best dressed free agent and also the best OBP option of any available catcher. He has a little pop as well, so he should make some team very happy next season. He is worthy of starting on a lot of teams and he should choose the situation that allows him that. Since 2004, Zaun has been a league average hitter. And not just average for a catcher. Zaun is a great pick-up for a team needing a 1 or 2 year starter. His option is affordable and if Tampa thinks that Navarro isn't good enough to start, they will excercise Zaun's option. Verdict: Tampa Excercises Option.
1B - Ross Gload (FLA). Gload has been exactly as advertised for the Marlins this season. He is a good hitter, who plays solid 1B defense and can play the corner OF if needed. He doesn't possess much power though, which means he will be a bench option the rest of his career. For $2.6M, the Marlins should pass. Gload will find a job somewhere though and will continue to be a great bench presence. Verdict: Option Declined.
1B - Chad Tracy (ARI). Tracy picked a bad year to be awful. He has declined pretty steeply the last 2 seasons and his power seems to have vanished. He may be a good bench option for someone, as he is able to play 1B and 3B. But, he is not worthy of a $7M contract. Verdict: Optioned Declined.
2B/3B - Akinori Iwamura (TB). I find it weird that Iwamura gets to bypass MLB regulations and become a free agent after 3 seasons. Fucking Japanese. Except Ichiro. I fucking love Ichiro. Anyways, Iwamura is a fantastic player, and has become a fantastic 2B. I wish he would steal some more bases, but that is just nit-picking. His option is $4.25M, which is affordable and reasonable. Tampa has 2 options at league minimum in Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez who could be as good, which makes it seem unlikely that his option gets excercised. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Alex Gonzalez (BOS). Gonzalez plays an excellent defensive SS and has always had some pop, which has made him a valuable player. His option is for $6M and the Red Sox kind of need a SS. It makes sense that they excercise the option and bring him back. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Jack Wilson (SEA). With an $8.4M option, the Mariners would be retarded to excercise the option. No matter how badly a team needs a SS, there is no excuse for paying one of the worst offensive players in baseball. Taking away 2007 and 2004, he hasn't OPS'd over .700 in his career (.684 career). That is pretty terrible. His defense is considered near the top in the Major Leagues though, so he does hold some value, but his power is almost non-exsistant and his on base skills leave a lot to be desired. Verdict: Option Declined.
3B - Pedro Feliz (PHI). $5M is pretty reasonable for a player with Feliz's skills and track record. He has been remarkably consistant the last 3 seasons, with an 81 OPS+ each season. He has power and plays plus defense, combined with the lack of other top available options, means that he is Philadelphia's best option next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
3B - Melvin Mora (BAL). Mora has very quietly been pretty great from 2002 until 2008, averaging 20 HR per season and an OPS of .820 over that time. He hasn't been good this season, losing playing time to Ty Wigginton in anticipation of Mora leaving (at an $8M option). He should have no trouble finding a starting job based on his track record. 2010 should help to determine if 2009 is an off year or the start of a steep decline. Verdict: Option Declined.
LF - Carl Crawford (TB). Crawford has a $10.25M option, which Tamp will exercise unless they are retarded. They will be able to trade him regardless, so declining is wasting an oportunity to get a couple really good prospects. Since Crawford has been outstanding since 2003 when healthy, it should be an easy decision for Tampa. Verdict: Option Exercised. Crawford Traded To Angels.
LF - Manny Ramirez (LAD). Mannywood holds a $20M player option. Based on his suspension and the way teams are shying away from cancerous contracts, Manny should decide to stay in LA. Verdict: Option Exercised.
CF - Coco Crisp (KC). The Royals hold an $8M option on Coco. He is a good player, but for $8M, the Royals can go out and a comparable Crisp and a couple other players. They have a ready replacement on the roster in Mitch Maier. It would be stupid to keep Crisp at that rate, but Dayton Moore has been known to be very stupid (acquiring Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betencourt, blocking Kila Monster with Jacobs and Shealy). Verdict: Option Exercised. Immediately Regretted.
RF - Jermaine Dye (CWS). At $12M, Dye's option is a steep price to pay for a DH. He is an incredible hitter though and there will be many teams willing to trow money at a guy who can mash like Dye. Since 2004, he has averaged 30 HR a season. That is impressively consistant. It will be a tough decision for Chicago, but in the end I believe they will decide that Dye is their best power threat and that they need him. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RF - Austin Kearns (WSH). At $10M all I have to say is: LMAO. And I never use faggy internet lingo lightly. I literally laughed so hard I shit my pants a little when I saw that Kearns had a $10M option. That will get declined so fast Kearns won't realize that is has been declined until he shows up in the spring and is excorted off National's property. He has some good seasons in his past and his defense is regarded as positive with an explosive arm. He should get a job somewhere, as a 4th OF on a good team or a starter on a bad one. Verdict: Option Declined Happily.
SP - Freddy Garcia (CWS). At no more than $3M next season, Garcia is a pretty good value for next season as a 5th starter. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Jon Garland (LAD). $10M option for a mediocre innings eater. I highly doubt the Dodgers will exercise the option, but Garland does hold value in the 5th spot in the rotation. You always know he will take his turn and put up league averagish numbers. In the end, I think that the Dodgers decide to see what else they can get for $7.5M. Verdict: Option Declined.
SP - Tim Hudson (ATL). Hudson is an interesting case. He has a $12M option for next season, but has missed most of this season after injury. It seems Atlanta wants to exercise his deal and trade one of their other starters. I find this stupid, but it makes sense if they feel they can only find offense through trade. Hudson has looked decent overall in a few starts since he was activated, so maybe he can be 100% and effective next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Cliff Lee (PHI). With an $8M option and great numbers since coming from Cleveland, the decision should be easy. Cliff Lee is an ace. $8M is amazing value for an ace. Verdict: Option Exercised.
P - Braden Looper (MIL). $6.5M is his option price. He has a nice win total this seaosn, which is largely inflated by great offensive support. Looper is a below average pitcher as a starter. There is no reason to give Looper $6.5M when you could probably sign a better option for less. Verdict: Option Declined.
P - Tim Wakefield (BOS). With a never ending $4M option, Wakefield is an interesting case. There is no reason not to exercise the deal just to see what you have. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Brandon Webb (ARI). Thought to be a no-brainer pre-season, Webb has become a serious discussion. His $8.5M option is extrememly team friendly if Webb is healthy. He hasn't been this season and there is concern he won't be next season as well. With a legit ace already in toe, Arizona may decide to use the money on a pitcher with a better chance of health in 2010. In the end, I believe Arizona will decide to keep him around as a good faith gesture to avoid burning a bridge with a great pitcher. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Rafael Betencourt (COL). Colorado inherited a $5.4M option when they acquired the quality set-up man. Colorado would be silly to exercise the contract in my opinion. Relief pitching is so inconsistant year to year that it is unwise to give millions to non-elite arms. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Doug Brocail (HOU). He has pitched less than 15 innings this season. That is reason alone to deline the 40+ year old's $2.85M option. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - J.J. Putz (NYM). Putz has spent some time hurt this season, and with a $9.15M option, the mets should use that money on an OF. That is a lot of money for a relief arm with more questions than answers. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Takashi Saito (BOS). Saito was a great sign by Boston after the Dodgers assumed he wasn't healthy enough to contribute in 2009. His option is for $5.5M, which is too much to spend on a middle reliever. The Red Sox are too deep to spend that on a veteran reliever. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Alan Embree (COL). $3M. Alan Embree has been decent, but he can be replaced. The Rockies must have needed to throw the option in to make a deal happen before the season. They shouldn't exercise it, but they probably will. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Wil Ohman (LAD). The Dodgers hold a $2.2M option on Ohman. That is a reasonable price for a quality lefty. I say exercise it. Ohman seems worth it. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Brian Shouse (TB). The Rays hold an undisclosed option, believed to be around $2M. Shouse has been effective and should continue to be effective. Verdict: Option Exercised.
There will be more Free Agents added when guys are non-tendered, which should be a considerable number with all the over-paid utility players and finge starters (I'm looking right at you, Jose Bautista).
So, until those guys are released into the pool, I will go by what we know.
I am going to start with guys with options in their contracts today. Tomorrow I will run through the top options at each position, then Saturday, I will go through the potentially under-rated guys who could sign minor league deals and make an impact off a Major League bench.
C - Michael Barrett (TOR). Barrett was pretty shitty early in the season, then hurt himself trying to catch a foul ball. He then hit like shit in 10 minor league rehab games. His option better be declined, and he will be lucky to get a minor league deal. Remember, Paul LoDuca and Johnny Estrada never got signed and were much better hitters than Barrett. Verdict: Option Declined
C - Ramon Hernandez (CIN). Hernandez has shown a good OBP this season, but his batting average is well below his norm. If he can keep this batting eye and bring his power and average back closer to his carerr averages, he could be back to a high level catcher. His option is $8M, so I doubt the Reds will bring him back. Verdict: Option Declined. I can see many teams interested in his services despite a very low slugging percentage.
C - Victor Martinez (BOS). V-Mart has been great in Boston since he came over from the Indians. He will be back with the Sox barring Theo Epstein losing his mind. Martinez is one of the premier catchers in baseball and a $7.7M option is an incredible value. Verdict: Option Excercised
C - Miguel Olivo (KC). Olivo is a low OBP negative impact baseball player. I do not care what anybody says, no major leaguer should ever OBP under .300 and Olivo hasn't been over in a full season since 2004 (which was his only season over). His career OBP is .276, which is dreadful. He has 20 HR though this season, so some team will sign him and he will destroy rallies for yet another team lured in by his power. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Yorvit Torrealba (COL). Yorvit is an interesting study. One season he will post a decent OBP with a poor SLG, then the next his OBP will be horrendous and his SLG will increase. His OBP+ has remained remarkably consistant. That sonsistancy says one thing: he does not belong in the Major Leagues. Torrealba is no better than any career minor leaguers that the Rockies could bring in to take his place. Verdict: Option Declined.
C - Jason Varitek (BOS). Varitek has become a very poor hitter, though he still has some pop and possesses a decent eye. Varitek could be a good signing for a team needing a 1 year stop gap and a veteran presence, but Boston should not bring him back. His option is a mutual one, so if Varitek thinks $3M is more than he would get elsewhere, he will excercise his option. Since he can't handle the knuckleball, he is not an ideal back-up for Boston. Verdict: Team Declines Option, Player Also Declines.
C - Gregg Zaun (TB). Zaun is the best dressed free agent and also the best OBP option of any available catcher. He has a little pop as well, so he should make some team very happy next season. He is worthy of starting on a lot of teams and he should choose the situation that allows him that. Since 2004, Zaun has been a league average hitter. And not just average for a catcher. Zaun is a great pick-up for a team needing a 1 or 2 year starter. His option is affordable and if Tampa thinks that Navarro isn't good enough to start, they will excercise Zaun's option. Verdict: Tampa Excercises Option.
1B - Ross Gload (FLA). Gload has been exactly as advertised for the Marlins this season. He is a good hitter, who plays solid 1B defense and can play the corner OF if needed. He doesn't possess much power though, which means he will be a bench option the rest of his career. For $2.6M, the Marlins should pass. Gload will find a job somewhere though and will continue to be a great bench presence. Verdict: Option Declined.
1B - Chad Tracy (ARI). Tracy picked a bad year to be awful. He has declined pretty steeply the last 2 seasons and his power seems to have vanished. He may be a good bench option for someone, as he is able to play 1B and 3B. But, he is not worthy of a $7M contract. Verdict: Optioned Declined.
2B/3B - Akinori Iwamura (TB). I find it weird that Iwamura gets to bypass MLB regulations and become a free agent after 3 seasons. Fucking Japanese. Except Ichiro. I fucking love Ichiro. Anyways, Iwamura is a fantastic player, and has become a fantastic 2B. I wish he would steal some more bases, but that is just nit-picking. His option is $4.25M, which is affordable and reasonable. Tampa has 2 options at league minimum in Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez who could be as good, which makes it seem unlikely that his option gets excercised. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Alex Gonzalez (BOS). Gonzalez plays an excellent defensive SS and has always had some pop, which has made him a valuable player. His option is for $6M and the Red Sox kind of need a SS. It makes sense that they excercise the option and bring him back. Verdict: Option Excercised.
SS - Jack Wilson (SEA). With an $8.4M option, the Mariners would be retarded to excercise the option. No matter how badly a team needs a SS, there is no excuse for paying one of the worst offensive players in baseball. Taking away 2007 and 2004, he hasn't OPS'd over .700 in his career (.684 career). That is pretty terrible. His defense is considered near the top in the Major Leagues though, so he does hold some value, but his power is almost non-exsistant and his on base skills leave a lot to be desired. Verdict: Option Declined.
3B - Pedro Feliz (PHI). $5M is pretty reasonable for a player with Feliz's skills and track record. He has been remarkably consistant the last 3 seasons, with an 81 OPS+ each season. He has power and plays plus defense, combined with the lack of other top available options, means that he is Philadelphia's best option next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
3B - Melvin Mora (BAL). Mora has very quietly been pretty great from 2002 until 2008, averaging 20 HR per season and an OPS of .820 over that time. He hasn't been good this season, losing playing time to Ty Wigginton in anticipation of Mora leaving (at an $8M option). He should have no trouble finding a starting job based on his track record. 2010 should help to determine if 2009 is an off year or the start of a steep decline. Verdict: Option Declined.
LF - Carl Crawford (TB). Crawford has a $10.25M option, which Tamp will exercise unless they are retarded. They will be able to trade him regardless, so declining is wasting an oportunity to get a couple really good prospects. Since Crawford has been outstanding since 2003 when healthy, it should be an easy decision for Tampa. Verdict: Option Exercised. Crawford Traded To Angels.
LF - Manny Ramirez (LAD). Mannywood holds a $20M player option. Based on his suspension and the way teams are shying away from cancerous contracts, Manny should decide to stay in LA. Verdict: Option Exercised.
CF - Coco Crisp (KC). The Royals hold an $8M option on Coco. He is a good player, but for $8M, the Royals can go out and a comparable Crisp and a couple other players. They have a ready replacement on the roster in Mitch Maier. It would be stupid to keep Crisp at that rate, but Dayton Moore has been known to be very stupid (acquiring Mike Jacobs and Yuniesky Betencourt, blocking Kila Monster with Jacobs and Shealy). Verdict: Option Exercised. Immediately Regretted.
RF - Jermaine Dye (CWS). At $12M, Dye's option is a steep price to pay for a DH. He is an incredible hitter though and there will be many teams willing to trow money at a guy who can mash like Dye. Since 2004, he has averaged 30 HR a season. That is impressively consistant. It will be a tough decision for Chicago, but in the end I believe they will decide that Dye is their best power threat and that they need him. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RF - Austin Kearns (WSH). At $10M all I have to say is: LMAO. And I never use faggy internet lingo lightly. I literally laughed so hard I shit my pants a little when I saw that Kearns had a $10M option. That will get declined so fast Kearns won't realize that is has been declined until he shows up in the spring and is excorted off National's property. He has some good seasons in his past and his defense is regarded as positive with an explosive arm. He should get a job somewhere, as a 4th OF on a good team or a starter on a bad one. Verdict: Option Declined Happily.
SP - Freddy Garcia (CWS). At no more than $3M next season, Garcia is a pretty good value for next season as a 5th starter. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Jon Garland (LAD). $10M option for a mediocre innings eater. I highly doubt the Dodgers will exercise the option, but Garland does hold value in the 5th spot in the rotation. You always know he will take his turn and put up league averagish numbers. In the end, I think that the Dodgers decide to see what else they can get for $7.5M. Verdict: Option Declined.
SP - Tim Hudson (ATL). Hudson is an interesting case. He has a $12M option for next season, but has missed most of this season after injury. It seems Atlanta wants to exercise his deal and trade one of their other starters. I find this stupid, but it makes sense if they feel they can only find offense through trade. Hudson has looked decent overall in a few starts since he was activated, so maybe he can be 100% and effective next season. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Cliff Lee (PHI). With an $8M option and great numbers since coming from Cleveland, the decision should be easy. Cliff Lee is an ace. $8M is amazing value for an ace. Verdict: Option Exercised.
P - Braden Looper (MIL). $6.5M is his option price. He has a nice win total this seaosn, which is largely inflated by great offensive support. Looper is a below average pitcher as a starter. There is no reason to give Looper $6.5M when you could probably sign a better option for less. Verdict: Option Declined.
P - Tim Wakefield (BOS). With a never ending $4M option, Wakefield is an interesting case. There is no reason not to exercise the deal just to see what you have. Verdict: Option Exercised.
SP - Brandon Webb (ARI). Thought to be a no-brainer pre-season, Webb has become a serious discussion. His $8.5M option is extrememly team friendly if Webb is healthy. He hasn't been this season and there is concern he won't be next season as well. With a legit ace already in toe, Arizona may decide to use the money on a pitcher with a better chance of health in 2010. In the end, I believe Arizona will decide to keep him around as a good faith gesture to avoid burning a bridge with a great pitcher. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Rafael Betencourt (COL). Colorado inherited a $5.4M option when they acquired the quality set-up man. Colorado would be silly to exercise the contract in my opinion. Relief pitching is so inconsistant year to year that it is unwise to give millions to non-elite arms. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Doug Brocail (HOU). He has pitched less than 15 innings this season. That is reason alone to deline the 40+ year old's $2.85M option. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - J.J. Putz (NYM). Putz has spent some time hurt this season, and with a $9.15M option, the mets should use that money on an OF. That is a lot of money for a relief arm with more questions than answers. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Takashi Saito (BOS). Saito was a great sign by Boston after the Dodgers assumed he wasn't healthy enough to contribute in 2009. His option is for $5.5M, which is too much to spend on a middle reliever. The Red Sox are too deep to spend that on a veteran reliever. Verdict: Option Declined.
RP - Alan Embree (COL). $3M. Alan Embree has been decent, but he can be replaced. The Rockies must have needed to throw the option in to make a deal happen before the season. They shouldn't exercise it, but they probably will. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Wil Ohman (LAD). The Dodgers hold a $2.2M option on Ohman. That is a reasonable price for a quality lefty. I say exercise it. Ohman seems worth it. Verdict: Option Exercised.
RP - Brian Shouse (TB). The Rays hold an undisclosed option, believed to be around $2M. Shouse has been effective and should continue to be effective. Verdict: Option Exercised.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Holy Potato
So, it has been forever since I put finger to plastic and wrote something here. There are 3 reasons for that.
1. My family and I are moving. Just down a floor in the same building, but it still sucks.
2. I am an idiot, who by way of being an idiot, tore my achiles tendon.
3. I was in Timmins, Ontario for a week. I love it there.
With that out of the way, let's move onto some Jays stuff. I haven't watched the Jays since about mid-August. I have been paying attention to boxscores and line-up configuration thanks to Yahoo and Drunk Jays Fans.
So, I have a mojor axe to grind with the way Cito has been running this team.
Since August 20, Kevin Millar has started in 9 games. That is roughly 9 too many. Millar should have been released near the end of August, so that another team could sign his clutch-ness and leadership for the playoff run.
The fact that Travis Snider has not been playing RF every day is ridiculous. There is no need to sit him against lefties. HE SHOULD BE PLAYING EVERY DAY. They might as well leave him in the minors and use any one of the lefty hitting OF that can't hit lefties floating around baseball. Luis Gonzalez is still a free agent. Maybe he can hit 5th behind Millar.
And how terrible is Edwin Encarnacion? Very. That's how terrible he is. He can't hit. I thought that is what he COULD do. He can barely field either, so that's a plus. It is always nice to employ a baseball player who can't hit or field, but the Jays got plenty.
Phillips has been up for over a week and he still hasn't been used yet. If he can hit, he can be our back-up catcher next season. I'm very upset about the lack of playing time for him.
This is how the line-up should look the rest of the way.
1. SS - Marco Scutaro
2. 2B -Aaron Hill
3. LF - Adam Lind
4. DH - Randy Ruiz
5. RF - Travis Snider
6. CF - Vernon Wells
7. 1B - Lyle Overbay (Including lefties)
8. C - Rod Barajas (Phillips against half the righties)
9. 3B - Jose Bautista (Encarnacion about 40%)
There is no reason not to put guys in spots that they may be in next season. If the Jays are to contend next season, Snider must be a middle-of-the-order threat. Randy Ruiz can be replaced next season with a big time slugger, but why not use him in the clean-up spot? He has power and actually a pretty good hitter. Better than Vernon, anyways.
Encarnacion better be traded in the off-season and Baustista non-tendered. Neither has any value at all, and if either player sees signigicant time in Toronto next season, I won't be responsible for my actions.
Free Agents After 2009:
SS Marco Scutaro $1.1M
IF John McDonald $1.9M
1B/D-Bag Kevin Millar $850K
Non-Tender Candidates:
3B/OF Jose Bautista $2.4M+
Trade Candidates:
3B Edwin Encarnacion $4.75M in 2010
LHP Brian Tallet 2 more years of control
LHP Scott Downs $4M in 2010
RHP Brandon League 3 more years of team control
RHP Jeremy Accardo 3 more years of team control
1B Lyle Overbay $7M in 2010
Jose Bautista's at least $3M dollars in 2010 can be spent much better, as seen with the way contracts were handed out this past off-season.
So, with many holes to fill and not much in AAA ready to step in and make any kind of impact, the Jays will need to be creative to fill their holes. My suggestions are as followed.
1. Try to trade for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee has soured on him. He is a great defender at SS, so even if he doesn't come back around to his mid 20's homers and .275+ average he is extremely valuable. Now, I know the Brewers know how valuable he is, but they have a better option (in their opinion) in Alcides Escobar. If Hardy can hit 15-20 homers and hit .250+ while playing great defense, he would be a very valuable Jay, if hitting in spots 6-8, as he is not a high OBP player. My trade proposal begins with pitching. Scott Richmond, Brian Tallet, David Purcey. If they want relief, offer Scott Downs. Or Jeremy Accardo or Brandon League. Try to get Edwin Encarnacion in there. Maybe they saw something they liked in Cincinatti and be willing to take him in return as well. A rotation member for the Brewers would be a nice pick-up for the Brewers for a guy who has become a spare part in a sense. Scott Downs or any 2 of the others, and the Brewers bite.
2. Sign Chone Figgins. Offer him up to 4 years at up to $10M per season. Play him at 3B, and lead him off. He has become a plus defender at 3B, so no more holding your breath they way I do when Edwin throws to 1B. He also adds an element to the Jays line-up that they lack: speed. It seems like forever since the Jays have had a 40 SB threat. Alex Rios swiped the occasional bag, but he was never a guy that the other pitcher really seemed to worry about. Figgins leading off would be dynamite. It may be a tough sell to get him to come to Toronto, but I have heard reports that he is a Cito fan, and if any one offensive player is worth over-paying for, it is a guy who can change the entire look of your team.
3. Sign a high-OBP catcher to start. Rod Barajas drives me crazy. His sub .280 OBP is pathetic and I don't care how many homers he hits. Gregg Zaun should should never have been his back-up, and I propose offering him or Jason Varitek the chance to be the starting catcher next season. Kyle Phillips would back up (if he gets a chance to show anything this Spetember). If J.P. Arencibia shows improvement in plate discipline, then he comes up and splits time with the veteran.
4. Sign or trade for a lefty mashing 1B. Lyle Overbay can destroy righties and plays a great 1B, all he needs is to never face a lefty if his team hopes to contend. Troy Glaus is a FA and mashes lefties, but he hates the turf here. Maybe Randy Ruiz can be that guy. Or Brian Dopirak if he has a strong spring.
5. Find a DH, ideally a right handed power hitter. Whether Randy Ruiz can do it for a full season remains to be seen, but the Jays want to contend they cannot go into the season with him as their go-to DH. I would love to see the Jays sign Carlos Delgado. Coming off an injury and nearing the end of his career, the true GBOAT can no longer play 1B well enough. His value is very low, so $5M guaranteed should get a deal signed. If not Carlos, than Jim Thome is a power hitting option. Some right handed options that are available: Jason Bay, pushing Lind to DH. Or Vlad Guerrero, who would be a great signing and more likely than Bay, who will command a ton due to lack of a injury history.
With these changes, the 2010 starting 9 would be:
C - Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
1B - Lyle Overbay (vs RHP) and Ruiz/Dopirak (vs LHP)
2B - Aaron Hill
3B - Chone Figgins
SS - J.J. Hardy
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Travis Snider
DH - Vlad Guerrero
The way I would construct the bench would be simple.
Back-up catcher - Kyle Phillips
Overbay platoon - Randy Ruiz/Brian Dopirak
Middle Infielder - Jerry Hairston Jr.
Outfielder - Marlon Byrd
Hairston and Byrd would be great signings, as both can play the OF against tough lefties if Snider needs to sit. Hairston would also be an acceptable SS, 2B, or 3B if there are injuries to the starters. Byrd, in particular, can push Wells to improve and to be the productive player he should be.
I would construct the line-up as follows:
1. Chone Figgins
2. Aaron Hill
3. Adam Lind
4. Vlad Guerrero
5. Lyle Overbay and Ruiz/Dopirak
6. Vernon Wells
7. Travis Snider
8. J.J. Hardy
9. Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
With Hill and Lind establishing themselves as legit threats, addind Guerrero and Figgins would make this team a threat to any pitcher. Wells is not likely to have another season as dreadfull as this one next year, so maybe he can re-emerge as a threat. Having Varitek or Zaun at the bottom allows a solid OBp guy to turn the line-up over and keep rallies going.
The pitching staff is something that doesn't need help. Roy Halladay is amazing. Shaun Marcum should be back 100% next season and Ricky Romero is a solid #3 starter. Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczinski could round out the rotation. Scott Richmond and Brian Tallet will be around as well, as well as the mid-season return of Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan could return as well.
The bull-pen should be a strength as well, as some younger guys could force their way up mid-season. Tim Collins and Danny Farquhar made it to AA this season and could be ready after some AAA time next season. Having a group that could include Zach Stewart, Accardo, Camp, League, Downs, Roenicke, Carlson, Tallet, Richmond, Frasor is a great group if used in their proper roles. I would like to see Frasor given the closers role and Downs in the set-up role. Working backwards, it allows guys like League and Roenicke not to be put in high-pressure situations, where they don't belong.
Well, enough ranting. There is a season to finish.
1. My family and I are moving. Just down a floor in the same building, but it still sucks.
2. I am an idiot, who by way of being an idiot, tore my achiles tendon.
3. I was in Timmins, Ontario for a week. I love it there.
With that out of the way, let's move onto some Jays stuff. I haven't watched the Jays since about mid-August. I have been paying attention to boxscores and line-up configuration thanks to Yahoo and Drunk Jays Fans.
So, I have a mojor axe to grind with the way Cito has been running this team.
Since August 20, Kevin Millar has started in 9 games. That is roughly 9 too many. Millar should have been released near the end of August, so that another team could sign his clutch-ness and leadership for the playoff run.
The fact that Travis Snider has not been playing RF every day is ridiculous. There is no need to sit him against lefties. HE SHOULD BE PLAYING EVERY DAY. They might as well leave him in the minors and use any one of the lefty hitting OF that can't hit lefties floating around baseball. Luis Gonzalez is still a free agent. Maybe he can hit 5th behind Millar.
And how terrible is Edwin Encarnacion? Very. That's how terrible he is. He can't hit. I thought that is what he COULD do. He can barely field either, so that's a plus. It is always nice to employ a baseball player who can't hit or field, but the Jays got plenty.
Phillips has been up for over a week and he still hasn't been used yet. If he can hit, he can be our back-up catcher next season. I'm very upset about the lack of playing time for him.
This is how the line-up should look the rest of the way.
1. SS - Marco Scutaro
2. 2B -Aaron Hill
3. LF - Adam Lind
4. DH - Randy Ruiz
5. RF - Travis Snider
6. CF - Vernon Wells
7. 1B - Lyle Overbay (Including lefties)
8. C - Rod Barajas (Phillips against half the righties)
9. 3B - Jose Bautista (Encarnacion about 40%)
There is no reason not to put guys in spots that they may be in next season. If the Jays are to contend next season, Snider must be a middle-of-the-order threat. Randy Ruiz can be replaced next season with a big time slugger, but why not use him in the clean-up spot? He has power and actually a pretty good hitter. Better than Vernon, anyways.
Encarnacion better be traded in the off-season and Baustista non-tendered. Neither has any value at all, and if either player sees signigicant time in Toronto next season, I won't be responsible for my actions.
Free Agents After 2009:
SS Marco Scutaro $1.1M
IF John McDonald $1.9M
1B/D-Bag Kevin Millar $850K
Non-Tender Candidates:
3B/OF Jose Bautista $2.4M+
Trade Candidates:
3B Edwin Encarnacion $4.75M in 2010
LHP Brian Tallet 2 more years of control
LHP Scott Downs $4M in 2010
RHP Brandon League 3 more years of team control
RHP Jeremy Accardo 3 more years of team control
1B Lyle Overbay $7M in 2010
Jose Bautista's at least $3M dollars in 2010 can be spent much better, as seen with the way contracts were handed out this past off-season.
So, with many holes to fill and not much in AAA ready to step in and make any kind of impact, the Jays will need to be creative to fill their holes. My suggestions are as followed.
1. Try to trade for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee has soured on him. He is a great defender at SS, so even if he doesn't come back around to his mid 20's homers and .275+ average he is extremely valuable. Now, I know the Brewers know how valuable he is, but they have a better option (in their opinion) in Alcides Escobar. If Hardy can hit 15-20 homers and hit .250+ while playing great defense, he would be a very valuable Jay, if hitting in spots 6-8, as he is not a high OBP player. My trade proposal begins with pitching. Scott Richmond, Brian Tallet, David Purcey. If they want relief, offer Scott Downs. Or Jeremy Accardo or Brandon League. Try to get Edwin Encarnacion in there. Maybe they saw something they liked in Cincinatti and be willing to take him in return as well. A rotation member for the Brewers would be a nice pick-up for the Brewers for a guy who has become a spare part in a sense. Scott Downs or any 2 of the others, and the Brewers bite.
2. Sign Chone Figgins. Offer him up to 4 years at up to $10M per season. Play him at 3B, and lead him off. He has become a plus defender at 3B, so no more holding your breath they way I do when Edwin throws to 1B. He also adds an element to the Jays line-up that they lack: speed. It seems like forever since the Jays have had a 40 SB threat. Alex Rios swiped the occasional bag, but he was never a guy that the other pitcher really seemed to worry about. Figgins leading off would be dynamite. It may be a tough sell to get him to come to Toronto, but I have heard reports that he is a Cito fan, and if any one offensive player is worth over-paying for, it is a guy who can change the entire look of your team.
3. Sign a high-OBP catcher to start. Rod Barajas drives me crazy. His sub .280 OBP is pathetic and I don't care how many homers he hits. Gregg Zaun should should never have been his back-up, and I propose offering him or Jason Varitek the chance to be the starting catcher next season. Kyle Phillips would back up (if he gets a chance to show anything this Spetember). If J.P. Arencibia shows improvement in plate discipline, then he comes up and splits time with the veteran.
4. Sign or trade for a lefty mashing 1B. Lyle Overbay can destroy righties and plays a great 1B, all he needs is to never face a lefty if his team hopes to contend. Troy Glaus is a FA and mashes lefties, but he hates the turf here. Maybe Randy Ruiz can be that guy. Or Brian Dopirak if he has a strong spring.
5. Find a DH, ideally a right handed power hitter. Whether Randy Ruiz can do it for a full season remains to be seen, but the Jays want to contend they cannot go into the season with him as their go-to DH. I would love to see the Jays sign Carlos Delgado. Coming off an injury and nearing the end of his career, the true GBOAT can no longer play 1B well enough. His value is very low, so $5M guaranteed should get a deal signed. If not Carlos, than Jim Thome is a power hitting option. Some right handed options that are available: Jason Bay, pushing Lind to DH. Or Vlad Guerrero, who would be a great signing and more likely than Bay, who will command a ton due to lack of a injury history.
With these changes, the 2010 starting 9 would be:
C - Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
1B - Lyle Overbay (vs RHP) and Ruiz/Dopirak (vs LHP)
2B - Aaron Hill
3B - Chone Figgins
SS - J.J. Hardy
LF - Adam Lind
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Travis Snider
DH - Vlad Guerrero
The way I would construct the bench would be simple.
Back-up catcher - Kyle Phillips
Overbay platoon - Randy Ruiz/Brian Dopirak
Middle Infielder - Jerry Hairston Jr.
Outfielder - Marlon Byrd
Hairston and Byrd would be great signings, as both can play the OF against tough lefties if Snider needs to sit. Hairston would also be an acceptable SS, 2B, or 3B if there are injuries to the starters. Byrd, in particular, can push Wells to improve and to be the productive player he should be.
I would construct the line-up as follows:
1. Chone Figgins
2. Aaron Hill
3. Adam Lind
4. Vlad Guerrero
5. Lyle Overbay and Ruiz/Dopirak
6. Vernon Wells
7. Travis Snider
8. J.J. Hardy
9. Jason Varitek/Gregg Zaun
With Hill and Lind establishing themselves as legit threats, addind Guerrero and Figgins would make this team a threat to any pitcher. Wells is not likely to have another season as dreadfull as this one next year, so maybe he can re-emerge as a threat. Having Varitek or Zaun at the bottom allows a solid OBp guy to turn the line-up over and keep rallies going.
The pitching staff is something that doesn't need help. Roy Halladay is amazing. Shaun Marcum should be back 100% next season and Ricky Romero is a solid #3 starter. Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczinski could round out the rotation. Scott Richmond and Brian Tallet will be around as well, as well as the mid-season return of Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan could return as well.
The bull-pen should be a strength as well, as some younger guys could force their way up mid-season. Tim Collins and Danny Farquhar made it to AA this season and could be ready after some AAA time next season. Having a group that could include Zach Stewart, Accardo, Camp, League, Downs, Roenicke, Carlson, Tallet, Richmond, Frasor is a great group if used in their proper roles. I would like to see Frasor given the closers role and Downs in the set-up role. Working backwards, it allows guys like League and Roenicke not to be put in high-pressure situations, where they don't belong.
Well, enough ranting. There is a season to finish.
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