Offseason Forecaster: Baltimore Orioles

I am gonna have another go at some off-season planning due to some boredom.

The top prospect list are coming together from both Baseball America & Minor League Ball, so I'm going to start close to my Blue Jays and rock the Baltimore Orioles off-season forecast.

To start off, 42 players who could potentially make up their roster next season cost about $70 Million. Since last season's payroll was about $70 Million, one could guess that unless their is a drastic raise in payroll, the Orioles are fucked.

Their big off-season targets seem to be 2 Maryland-born free-agents, Mark Teixeira & A.J. Burnett, and $0 in their potential budget is huge mushroom-tattoo on their cheek.

But, the Orioles have been known to spend money, as their 2007 payroll was about $95 Million. Using that number, it gives them about $25 Million to jiggle around.

Their current roster formation is one that is a cluster-fuck of over-paid, under-talented old bastards.

I don't think Burnett or Teixeira will take "hometown discounts" to play on a shitty team, so it's gonna have to be money that brings them home. Burnett will need at least $15 Million over at least 5 years to play in Baltimore. And I assume Teixeira will take a $20 Million annual fee over 8 years. Just to acquire both guys, Baltimore would need to cut about $10 Million in salary.

Let's start at Catcher for this "team."
Ramon Hernandez sucks. How he turned a couple decent seasons into the contract he currently has is fucking outstanding. I need to meet his agent. Good news, Matt Weiters is going to be a stud. And he might be ready right now. So dump Hernandez. I'm sure they could pawn him on the Mets for a reliever, in a salary dump. Scott Shoendouche or Pedro Feliciano would be sufficient in my opinion. Hernandez makes $8 Million, the 2 pitchers each make about $3 Million. Ex-Jay Guillermo Quiroz is a capable back-up.

The First Base situation is pretty sticky:
If Teix is signed, everything is peachy. If not, look out. I guess Aubrey Huff could here, but his best position is DH. Scott Moore is an offensive minor league player, who would be an option in only the most extreme circumstances. Bottom line, they need Teix.

At least 2nd base is set, with Brian Roberts. Although their were rumblings last off-season, nothing came to fruition. Brian Roberts is an Oriole, and it's a shame, because he could bring in an excellent bounty, and 2nd base is an easy position to get league average stats from for cheap. I would trade him off for a young pitcher to anyone who will pay 100% of his money. I'd look for a guy with no more than 1.5 years of service time who is a safe bet to log solid innings. If the Orioles could pull a Marlins and unload Hernandez with him to the Mets, or another team wanting Roberts, the same way the Marlins pawned Lowell off with Beckett, it would be brilliant GMing.

3rd base is set with Melvin Mora mostly due to his massive contract. He put up a solid season, so he may have trade value if you need to look here to move money. There are no in-house options, unless you want a platoon of Scott Moore & Mike Contanzo. Which no-one does. Outside help would need to be acquired to fill this spot in the event of a More deal.

Short Stop is a black hole for Baltimore. They signed Donnie Murphy to add to a list that includes Freddy Bynum, Brandon Fahey, and Luiz Hernandez as candidates for playing time in AAA. Baltimore needs to add a short stop. I think it should priority A over Teixeira & Burnett. A trade for Jack Wilson would be smart, and a trade for Khalil Greene would be brilliant. Problem is, the Orioles don't have good arms to deal.

In the outfield, things are pretty set. Adam Jones is gonna be a good player for a long time and Nick Markakis is already a very good player. Luke Scott is the weak link in the OF, but he is a solid player as well. Scott could probably play 1B is they can't get Teix, with OF help easier to find than 1B production. Luis Montanez proved he deserves a shot at a 4th OF slot with some solid play last season.

The rotation is shit, plain and simple. As the ace of the staff, Guthrie makes a nice number 3 starter. No knock on Guthrie, he is a good pitcher, but wouldn't be an ace on any other team in baseball. Dan Cabrera should be non-tendered or moved to the pen where his shitty control may be seen as "cool" or "hip." Other rotation candidates are: Lance Cormier, Matt Albers, Brian Burres, Freddy Deza, Rad Liz, Jim Miller, Brad Hennessey, Garrett Olson, Hayden Penn, Troy Patton, Chris Waters. That looks like a good AAA staff, not a ML staff. Penn, Patton, & Liz are good arms and could be good eventually though. In the pipe-line, they have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, & Jake Arrieta who are front-line quality arms. Realistically, they need 3 arms in free agency, at least 1 better than Guthrie. They actually need to get A.J. He can be their ace and lead them back to mediocrity and beyond. I think they should look at Jon Garland for mid-rotation, and Braden Looper/Odalis Perez for back-end.

The bull-pen is extremely over priced. The off-season that saw them sign Danys Baez and Jamie Walker, if possible, looks worse now. Baez cannot be dealt, and Walker isn't worth trading. If you could include them in deals with assets that would be brilliant. George Sherrill should be dealt, as they don't need a closer in 2009. Chris Ray should be back and 100%.

Deals I see the Orioles making.
I actually see them getting both Teix & A.J. for the record.
First, non-tendering Dan Cabrera.

Signing:
A.J. Burnett. SP - 5 years, $16 Million/season
Mark Teixeira. 1B - 8 years, $22 Million/season
Braden Looper/Odalis Perez. SP - 2 years, $5 Million/season
Orlando Cabrera. SS - 3 years, $12 Million/season
Total Added: $55 Million. That would mean that about $30 Million needs to be dumped to include these free agents.

Trades:
George Sherrill to St. Louis for SP (Mitchell Boggs, Jaime Garcia) & Brandon Ryan. This solves the Cards need for a closer on the cheap and gives the O's a live arm for the bull-pen and a potential starting SS or 2B.

Ramon Hernandez to New York for minor league pitcher (Brandon Knight type). Gives the Mets a starting catcher and the O's another back-end starter type for depth.

Brian Roberts and Jamie Walker to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt, Lames McDonald/Scott Elbert, & Chin-Lung Hu. The Dodgers get a lead-off man to replace Furcal and a 2nd baseman to replace Kent. The O's relieve themselves of Walker, pick-up a 3rd baseman, SS, and a SP with potential.

Melvin Mora to the Angels for Nick Green/Anthony Ortega type. Angels get a 3rd baseman to move Figgins to either 2nd or OF full-time. O's get another live arm for the rotation battle/depth.

In total. Additions of:
SP Mitchell Boggs/Jaime Garcia
SS Brandon Ryan
SP Brandon Knight
3B Blake DeWitt
SP Scott Elbert/James McDonald
SS Chin-Lung Hu
SP Nick Green/Anthony Ortega

All make league minimum-ish salaries of about $450,000

Players that are lost:
Dan Cabrera - $3.5M
Melvin Mora - $9M
Ramon Hernandez - $8M
Brian Roberts - $8M
Jamie Walker - $4.5M
George Sherrill - $2.5M
Total Dumped: $35.5 M

Potential Roster Construction:

C: Matt Weiters, Guillermo Quiroz
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Brandon Ryan
3B: Blake DeWitt
SS: Orlando Cabrera
LF: Luke Scott
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff
IF: Freddy Bynum/Chin-Lung Hu/Donnie Murphy (2 of the 3)
OF: Luis Montanez/Nolan Reimold

Rotation:
1. A.J. Burnett
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Braden Looper/Odalis Perez (gives younger guys less pressure)
4 & 5. Battle between about 10 guys (young guys from trades have leg-up)

Bull-pen:
Closer: Jim Johnson
Set-Up: Danys Baez (try to build up trade value)
Set-Up: Chris Ray
rest of bull-pen made up of live young arms.

I belive that the deals I went through with are realistic and beneficial to both teams involved. The roster construction leaves the Orioles looking like a decent team. A line-up with Markakis/Teix/Huff is pretty imposing and Jones is just going to get better. The pitching is still weak, but their system is good with strong arms.

I look forward to doing some more teams in the coming days, to try and keep myself in the hot-stove action.

Peace out