The Free Agents: The Premium Talent

Yesterday, I posted on the upcoming players who have options on their contracts for 2010 and gave some personal insight on how I thought each situation would be handled.

Today, I am going to look at a few guys who I feel are the top of the class and where they could fit.

First, some clarification. I am basing the "premium" talent off of 2 things. The first is a type A free agent, regardless of if it is likely that his team offers arbitration. The second is personal opinion and bias. The type A stuff is a little, shall we say, poorly done. Some of the type A free agents are not very good. They are just players that have put up good enough counting stats and played a lot.

The type A guys will be the players who were clasified as such as of September 7th.

Jason Bay, OF / Matt Holliday, OF
Bay is probably the best available player this winter. He has put up a 131 OPS+ in his career, most of which was in Pittsburgh with no help around him. He has 3o+HR and 100+RsBI 4 of the last 5 seasons, and should have many suitors. The Red Sox, Angels, Mets and Yankees all have a need for an OF and are known to spend big. Let's stay focused there. Bay says he is very happy in Boston, and there is no reason for the two not to agree on something. Verdict: Bay Re-Signs with Red Sox. Holliday will be a consolation prize at a lower price. I can see him signing with the same teams, but I think there has been too much chatter for him to not end up in pin-stripes. Verdict: Holliday Signs with the Yankees.

Bobby Abreu, OF
For some reason, Abreu had to settle for the silent treatment this past off-season. The man with 11 straight 110+OPS+ seasons got ignored all winter. He eventually had to agree to a 1 year contract and has done remarkable, putting up his 12th straight season of well above average production. He has even stolen 29 bases. He should have a big market to play in and the same 4 will look at him that look at Jason Bay. He should be back to making big market money, which might price him out of some markets. The teams I see being very good fits are the Angels, Mets, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, and Giants. It will be a tough call as he is very valuable force in a line-up. Picture him getting on-base at a .400 clip in front of Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. Scary. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.

Johnny Damon, OF
Damon is an interesting case, as a lot of value comes from his HR total, which is most likely inflated by new Yankee Stadium. He has averaged 19 HR per season in New York. Would he be so potent outside of the jet-stream? He averaged 14 HR is 4 seasons in Boston, so his power only looks slightly inflated. And when he started to emerge in Kansas city, he had 3 straight season with at least 14 HR. If he picks a hitter friendly park, he should be fine with the homers. If he goes to a place like Oakland (where he was kind of awful), then it could be trouble. I can see the Yankees keeping him, but he is an awfully weird choice for a DH in New York. It is realy tough to place Damon, as his only defensive position is LF, which is a spot usually reserved for premium run producers. He could probably play 1B, but again would be no more than acceptable at best offensively. Verdict: Re-Signs with the Yankees.

Vladimir Guerrero, OF
Vlad is pretty much relagated to DH duties for the rest of his career, eliminating any reasonable National League team. He still has power and still can hit for a good average, which should be good for any team looking for a DH. The problem is that teams are starting to use the DH as a spot to give their weaker defensive players and older guys a chance to rest while keeping their bat in the line-up. I think the Blue Jays would be a perfect fit, as they have a young OF that does not really need to stay off the field. 2009 is likely to be the first season that Vlad hasn't hit .300 or OBP'd .350, which is outstanding. He could probably be signed for about $8M-$10M on a 1 or 2 year contract. Seatle and the Tigers could also be interested. In the end, the best fit I see is Toronto, which won't happen. Verdict: Signs with Seattle.

Marco Scutaro, SS/2B
Marco is going to roll off a career year and turn it into millions of dollars and a muti-year contract. He fits in a lot of places. Boston if they decline A-Gonzalez. Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, Washington, St. Louis, and Chicago Cubs all have a need to certain degrees at SS. Marco could be a good lead-off hitter or a perfect number 2 hitter on a lot of teams. His versatility is also a factor, as he is also a very good 2B. It is tough to see any one of those teams actually actively pursuing Marco. St. Louis looks to be the most likely from that group, so that is where I will put him. Verdict: Signs with the Cardinals.

Orlando Cabrera, SS
The same teams will be in on Cabrera, as long as his type A label does not hinder him again. Minnesota should re-sign him, as he fits perfectly on their team. I also think that Washington will take a run at him if he is not offered arbitration. Verdict: Re-Signs with Minnesota.

Chone Figgins, 3B/2B/OF
The most coveted player could be Figgins, who can start at 3B or 2B in the infield or in the OF. Any team with an opening anywhere will look at Figgins. He could get big money, which eliminates most of his suitors. He probably ends up back in LA or with a team like the Blue Jays or Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Mets make a lot of sense in the NL, but the Braves will back down at the price. Figgins seems like a back-up plan in the OF to the Mets, but could start at 3B in St. Louis. I think the White Sox will make a serious run at him, as he is literally the perfect fit for their style. Verdict: Signs with the White Sox.


Andy Pettitte, SP
It seems to be Yankees or bust for Pettitte, yet again. But, why? If he is going to take around $5M, that should put a lot teams interested. Pettitte is no longer good enough to be a good starter in the AL East, so why not go be a good starter in the NL. The Dodgers make a ton of sense, with Joe Torre in fold. Houston could work, as he has played there and had a lot of success. As long as Pettitte doesn't carry too much sentiment than he can be a usefull starter for any team in baseball. There are also rumblings he may retire, which is stupid. He will be 38 next season, which is still kind of young. If he can average 15 wins for the next 5 seasons (not impossible) than he can win 300 games. I think he should try his hand in the NL West with the Dodgers and go for it. Verdict: Re-Signs with Yankees. Regreted by Both sides.

John Lackey, SP
Lackey is a stud. He has been a litle banged up the last 2 season, but has still up great numbers. He was a Cy contender in 2007 and can still be a top of the rotation force. The Angels have depth, but would be wise to try and retain their ace. Being from Texas immediately puts him in the crosshairs of the Rangers and Astros. Texas pride is about the only thing that has baffled me. Why a guy would want to pitch in that shoebox in Arlington or for a terrible team constructor in Houston is beyond me. But, with the Astros lack of monetary freedom (thanks to some recent big signings) and the Rangers finincial problems (which may or may not get resolved in time to make a bid at Lackey), both Texas teams seem out of the equation. He makes sense for every big market team, because you can never have too much pitching. The Yankees could use a better number 2 than Burnett, the Red Sox could use Dice-L insurance at the top of their rotation, the Mets could certainly use a legit option behind Johan. If the Cubs can trade Zambrano (unlikely), they could be bidders as well. Maybe even the Dodgers could make a play. In the end, I think Lackey stays put. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.

Benji Molina, C
Benji is the only type A free agent catcher, which should hurt his value and limit his suitors. The thing about Molina is this: he puts up good numbers on the surface, but is not even a league average offensive player. He is close, and he had 2 seasons in his career where he was league average or better (2005 and 2006). His value is in his power, but what Molina gives you, so will Rod Barajas. Molina is slightly better hitter, but they are close enough to not bother with Molina. Think about it. Would you give Molina $2M more per year over a longer deal and surrender a 1st or 2nd round draft choice when you could sign almost the same player for less per year over a shorter deal without being punished? Didn't think so. Still, there will be teams interested. Verdict: Signs with the Mets.

Orlando Hudson, 2B / Felipe Lopez, 2B/3B/SS
I am lumping them together here as they are actually pretty similar players. Hudson is the better player, but Felipe is closer than perceived. Lopez is picking a great time to play his best baseball since his inflated 2005. Since being traded to St. Louis last season, Lopez has hit well above .300, while OPS'ing about .375, which is outstanding. Hudson's advantage is in his consistancy. He has been consistantly above average the last 4 seasons, while Lopez goes back and forth. Teams that need a 2B include: Minnesota (if Casilla plays SS), KC (if they want to upgrade defense), White Sox, Seattle (if Jose Lopez gets shifted), Nationals (if Guzman stays at SS), Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, Pirates, Dodgers, and D-Backs. I see one of them in Chicago with the Cubs, most likely Lopez. Hudson has been linked to the Nationals (mostly the Nationals being very interested) and the Mets (if they can rid themselves of Luis Castillo). The Dodgers have said they won't get into a bidding war over Hudson, which leads me to believe they have a plan (which shouldn't be Blake DeWitt). Predictions: Hudson signs with Cubs, Lopez with Dodgers.

Troy Glaus, 1B/3B
Glaus a guy who may get a minor league deal, which would eliminate any compensation pick. He still has power, but his recent injuries may prevent him from being able to play 3B. He could be a DH option in the AL or a back-up 1B/PH in the NL. Being in that situation puts Glaus on everyone's radar. I would like to see the Rangers sign him, as I believe he could excell DH'ing there. Baltimore makes sense as well, as long as Luke Scott can play 1B. Prediction: Too Unpredictable To Determine Yet.

Rich Harden, RP
Harden is an enigma. When healthy, he is an ace. He has actually had one of his worst season this year in 140+ innings. He would be a great risk move similar to Brad Penny last season, which makes is destination unknown. I will predict that he does what Penny did. Verdict: Signs with Red Sox.

Randy Wolf, SP
Wolf is a product of the NL. He would get eaten up alive if he had to pitch to a DH every start. He knows this, which is why he has stayed in the NL his whole career. There will be plenty of teams interested, with Wolf having his best season ever. The Mets make a lot of sense, as do the Dodgers (his current employer). In the end, I think the Mets need him more than the Dodgers. Verdict: Signs with Mets.

The list of type A relievers is usually a little less impressive. Darren Oliver will either not get offered arbitration or end up back in LA with the Angels. No team will give up a pick for him, just like last off-season. Valverde will be the one with the most suitors, as the better Trevor Hoffman will probably re-sign with Milwaukee. Atlanta will re-sign one of Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano, count on it. Which one remains to be seem. When healthy, Gonzalez is better and left-handed. I say the Braves re-up Gonzo, leaving Soriano to walk. Billy Wagner wants to close, and if he keeps pitching as well as he has been, he will get his chance somewhere. Kevin Gregg and LaTroy Hawkins are both quality arms, who will have a bunch of teams interested. John Grabow will get to choose whichever team he wants. Most of my predictions are just wild speculation.

Jose Valverde, RP. Verdict: Signs with Tigers.
Mike Gonzalez, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Braves.
Rafael Soriano, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mariners.
Trevor Hoffman, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Brewers.
Kevin Gregg, RP. Verdict: Signs with Mets.
Latroy Hawkins, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Astros.
John Grabow, RP. Verdict: Signs with Yankees.
Billy Wagner, RP. Verdict: Signs with Cardinals.
Darren Oliver, RP. Verdict: Re-Signs with Angels.