Disecting The Peavy Trade Winds

As much as I would love to write about how the Jays have the pieces to pull off something like this, which they do, but it is not going to happen.

Peavy has stated that he would only waive his no trade clause to go to 5 NL teams: Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, LA, and St Louis.

I do not buy for a fucking second that San Diego would trade Peavy in their division.

He has also stated that he would consider waiving his NTC to 3 undisclosed AL teams as long as generous compensation is given. To me, those 3 teams are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels.

With the reported starting point being 2 mlb-ready starters and an mlb-ready CF, let's look at what each of the 4 top suiters could offer, and see who would give the most and go the extra player.

Houston Astros
Potential CF:
Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Jordan Parraz, Eli Iorg
Potential SPs:
Felipe Paulino, Brad James, Bud Norris, Sam Gervacio
Other Potential Pieces:
C JR Towles

I think a 4-man package of Pence, Towles, and 2 of the pitchers would not top what other teams would offer. SD will need at least one front-end starter in the deal, and the other pieces are not going to be strong enough.

Atlanta Braves
Potential CF:
Jordan Schafer, Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Francour
Potential SPs:
Tommy Hanson, Cole Rohrbrough, Jeff Locke, Jose Ortegano
Other Potential Pieces:
SS Brent Lillibridge, SS Brandon Hicks

If Hanson is offered with Schafer, then a lower pitcher who could step in right away could be a Chuck James or Jo-Jo Reyes type. Either Lillibridge or Hicks would be nice players to aquire to eventually replace Khalil Greene. Lillibridge would be a better fit if Greene gets dealt this offseason. The Braves could blow away an offer by the Astros, but let's see how they stack up to the rest.

St. Louis Cardinals
Potential CF:
Colby Rasmus, Skip Shoemaker, Brian Barton
Potential SPs:
Jaime Garcia, Tyler Herron, Adam Ottavino, Jess Todd
Other Potential Pieces:
C Bryan Anderson, SS Peter Kozma, 3B Allen Craig, 3B David Freese

Colby Rasmus would be the centre-piece, and the starters are not as impressive as Atlanta could offer. A package of Rasmus, Garcia, Ottavino, Kozma would be a huge price to pay, but it would not cripple the Cards system, as it is pretty deep. SD would have to weigh whether they value higher upside pitching or the CF.

Chicago Cubs
Potential CF:
Felix Pie
Potential SPs:
Jeff Samardjzilla, Jose Ceda
Other Potential Pieces:
3B Josh Vitters, 3B Matt Craig

The Cubs system kind of sucks, in my opinion. Pie could turn into a great player, but poor showings have kind of given him a Corey Patterson feeling to me. He is allready an above average CF defensively though, and SD could use the defensive certainty. Samardjzilla could turn into a solid starter and Ceda is a guy with big upside and shakey control. Those 3 would match any other offer, and Craig would be a really nice add-on, and could play 3B if SD trades Kouz.

I would rank the potential packages like this

4. Pence/Towles/Paulino/Norris
3. Pie/Samardjzilla/Ceda/Craig
2. Rasmus/Garcia/Ottovino/Kozma
1. Shafer/Hanson/James/Lillibridge

I see him becoming a Brave if Atlanta is willing to give up a package so big. But I will always take a sure thing and proven guy over an unknown prospect. And Peavy is still young, so it's not like whoever the acquiring team is gets a past-his-prime 30 something. The haul should be at least that of Dan Haren.