Holy Panda Rape!

Holy Panda Rape!

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The Top 20 Prospects

I have decided to review the farm system going forward, with a top 20 prospect list of my own, splitt into 2 top 10 lists. I will be using guidelines like Minor League Ball's top 20, Baseball Reference for stats, and Baseball America's top 10 list. These will be overpowered by personal belief of what these guys could be.

Hitters

1. Travis Snider - OF
Snider is the consensus #1 prospect in the Jays system and may crack the top 10 in all of baseball next year. Snider may be the stating something next season, and should put up decent numbers. If they hit him 8th or 9th, and he hits .270 with 20 homers, consider it a success.

2. JP Arencibia - C
JP really opened some eyes this year, hitting 27 HR and driving in 105 runs. He hit .298 as well, proving there is legit hitting ability at play. JP should start 2009 in AAA, but could push Barajas after a couple months of good baseball. I think he could be a very effective player in 2010, and a potential star catcher going forward.

3. David Cooper - 1B
Last year's first round pick has skyrocketed through 3 levels this year. His power isn't really there, with 5 HR in 273 AB, but his AVG of .333 is more than impressive. I see him a Lyle Overbay type, hitting a lot of doubles and maybe hitting 20 HR someday. He could be in Toronto in 2010 if he keeps hitting.

4. Kevin Ahrens - 3B
The first of the high-school drafted "3 Musketeers" from 2007, Ahrens had the highest AVG among the 3. He carries the most upside, although playing 3rd base instead of SS hurts his value a bit. They should try him as a SS in 2009, just to see if he could do it. He will need to develop his power in order to be a corner man.

5. Scott Campbell - 2B
Campbell didn't exactly come out of nowhere this year, as this season is in line with what he has done so far in his pro career. He took a major step in competition this year, and more than rose to the challenge. He hit over .300 and showed a little pop with 9 HR. At the minimum, he should be a Joe Inglett type.

6. Brian Dopirak - 1B
Now, this guy came out of nowhere. Signed due to proximity to his home in Dunedin, Dopirak has done nothing but hit. After some almost terrible seasons with some Cubs affiliates, the Jays snatched him up and he has exceded any expectations the Jays could have had. 29 HR, 101 RsBI, a .300 AVG. Dopirak could be in AAA next year, just waiting for Overbay to screw around with a weak couple months.

7. John Tolisano - 2B
Tolisano was the 2007 high-schooler that I had the most hope for. That has died down with his weak 2008. A SS in high school, he has only played 2B & DH in his 2 pro seasons, which doesn't bode well for future utility guy. He will need to crack the line-up as a 2B or 3B, maybe LF. He will need to hit if he has to play a corner.

8. Justin Jackson - SS
Probly the fastest player in the entire organization (Eric Eiland may be faster), Jackson is a superb athlete and a pretty promising SS prospect. Like Tolisano & Ahrens, Jackson has had a pretty disapointing season. All 3 2007 picks should move to the next level next season regardless of performance, mainly due to lack of options.

9. Brain Jeroloman - C
One of my favourite potential Blue Jays for reasons I can't explain. He does deserve to be on this list though. In AA, he had an OBP of almost .400. He stumbled a bit in AAA, but didn't have a lot of AB. Jeroloman could overtake Thigpen with a good spring training for the back-up position behind Barajas. I see him as nothing more than a great defensive back-up catcher.

10. Bradley Emaus - 2B
Emaus had a big season in Dunedin this year, hitting .300 with 12 HR & 71 RsBI. He showed surprising power, and will hope to translate that into success at higher levels in 2009.

Honorable Mentions: C - Jonathan Jaspe & Joel Collins, SS Tyler Pastronicky, OF - Eric Eiland, Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, Kenny Wilson

Pitchers

1. Brett Cecil - P
Cecil put up some really pretty numbers this season in AA/AAA, and may even crack the rotation next season. I still see him more as a BJ Ryan type down the road, and if that is his downside, I really like him.

2. Brad Mills - SP - 13-5 - 1.97 ERA - 159K in 147.1IP
Drafted twice by the Jays, Mills has had a great season and pushed near the front of a pretty shallow group of prospects. A lefty with a FB, CRV, CHG combo, he reminds some people of Ted Lilly. The CRV isn't as good, but everything else screams average.

3. Robert Ray - SP - 13-9 - 3.63 ERA
Ray made the move from Dunedin to New Hampshire this season and actually improved himself in making the move up. He could be sleeper prospect for the Jays, a Jesse Litsch type maybe.

4. Marc Rzepczynski - SP
Another lefty, he has had a solid first full season, just like Mills (he was drafted 30 picks behind Mills in 2007). He's bigger physically than Mills, but is a similar type of pitcher.

5. Kyle Ginley - SP
Ginley started in Lansing and pitchied like a guy who wanted to move up. When he got his wish, he struggled a bit. If he can make some needed adjustments, he could be a back-of-the-rotation type prospect.

6. Reider Gonzalez - SP - 12-4 - 3.15 ERA
Not a strikeout pitcher, he will need to continue his excellent command in order to succeed at higher levels.

7. Randy Boone - SP
In his first season of pro ball, he had a season similar to Ginley. He pitched really well in Lansing, but struggled in Dunedin. He's 23, so he isn't a young pup. He will need to make adjustments quickly if he wants to be any kind of prospect.

8. Zach Dials - RP
Dials didn't spend much time in Dunedin before moving to AA this season. He struggled a bit with the increase in talent, but managed 15 saves and is a solid relief prospect for the Jays.

9. Tim Collins - RP - 1.58 ERA
"Tiny Tim" is a JP Riccardi find out of the Mass area. Undrafted, the 5'7'', 155 LB lefty makes the most out of his body. He struck out 98 in 68 innings this season, which is impressive. He is only 18, so he has tons of time to grow (not physically).

10. Alan Farina - RP
In his 2nd pro season, he moved up and got better at the same time. He was very *meh* in his pro-debut, but pitched very well this season. He only threw 29 innings, but they were impressive, with 37 K. Someone to keep an eye on.
Honorable Mentions: Davis Romero, Ricky Romero, Trystan Magnuson, Brandon Magee, Ryan Page (not enough pro ball), Edgar Estanga & Cody Crowell (2 leftie relievers with impressive K ratios)

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