It's been a few days since I even talked about the team, but I feel something coming over me with the season gone.
I want to see the young guys playing the rest of the way. I don;t want to see Zaun at all, or anybody not in next years plans.
Thigpen better catch at least 5 of the 6 games. I want to see Lind start a couple games at first, in case Overbay gets dealt. If I see Wilkerson do anything buy pinch-run in the 8th or 9th inning, I may kill myself.
My iddeal line-up the rest of the season:
1. 2B - Joe Inglett / Marco Scutaro
2. RF - Alex Rios
3. DH/1B - Adam Lind
4. CF - Vernon Wells
5. LF - Travis Snider
6. 3B - Scott Rolen / Jose Bautista
7. 1B/DH - Lyle Overbay
8. C - Curtis Thigpen
9. SS - John MacDonald
I think it would be beneficial to see Snider hit a little higher in the line-up, even for 6 games.
The starting pitchers I hope to see for the next 6 games:
Tues: Litsch
Wed: Burnett
Thurs: Purcey
Fri: Halladay
Sat: Richmond
Sun: Litsch
It is not much different than what is goinf to come, I'm just giving Halladay an extra day of rest. Burnett must have a very short leash on Wednesday, as I really don't want to see him get hurt and keep his opt-in.
I wouldn't mind seeing Cecil called up for a start instead of Litsch's on the last day of the season. I would like to see Cecil start next year with the club until McGowan is healthy.
Nest season now has payroll flexiblilty, but it is going to be tough to find guys to come in and contribute.
Their catching situation next year: About $3.75M locked into 2009:
Rod Barajas - $2.5M option
Curtis Thigpen - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Brian Jeroloman - $400,000 pre-arb guess
JP Arencibia - $400,000 pre-arb guess
I hope Jeroloman is given a serious chance at being the back-up with considerable playing time.
1B: About $7.4M comited to 2009:
Lyle Overbay - $7M (under contract through 2010)
David Cooper - $400,000 (could make a serious run if he keeps hitting)
If My perfect world, Lyle gets traded, the Jays don't eat any money, and start Lind at 1B, saving money for a slugging DH or pitcher.
3B/2B/SS: About $19.44M commited to 2009:
Aaron Hill - $2.59M (locked up through 2014)
Marco Scutaro - $1.1M
John MacDonald - $1.9M
Joe Inglett - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Scott Rolen - $11M (locked up through 2010)
Jose Bautista - $2M arb guess
Scott Campbell - $400,000 pre-arb guess (could force his way)
Hill should be at SS in 2009, with Inglett playing the majority at 2B. Campbell could force the Jays hand with a really hot month or 2 in AAA, and could supplant Inglett into a utility role. Rolen is the 3B, with Bautista getting a decent amount of time, to spell Scotty. Scutaro should be traded.
Outfielders: About $9.45M commited to 2009:
Vernon Wells - $1.5M (Through 2014 with considerable raise after 2009)
Alex Rios - $5.9M (Through 2015 with raises coming after 2009)
Travis Snider - $400,000 pre-arb guess
Adam Lind - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Russ Adams - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Buck Coates - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Again, im perfect scenerio, Lind is at 1B. If the roster turns over, Snider has to be here. Snider & Lind should splitt LF/DH, with Lind DHing about 70%. As it stands, either Coates or Adams would be the 4th outfielder, unless Bautista & Scutaro can both play it well enough to keep both on the roster.
Pitchers: About $36.65M comitted to 2009:
Roy Halladay - $14.25M (Locked up through 2010)
Shaun Marcum - $500,000 pre-arb guess (Not pitching in 2009)
Dustin McGowan - $500,000 pre-arb guess (could miss first 2 months)
Jesse Litsch - $450,000 pre-arb guess
David Purcey - $400,000 pre-arb guess
Brett Cecil - $400,000 pre-arb guess
BJ Ryan - $10M (through 2010)
Scott Downs - $3.75M (through 2010)
Jason Frasor - $1.5M arb guess
Brian Tallet - $1M arb guess
Jeremy Accardo - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Casey Janssen - $450,000 pre-arb guess
John Parrish - $500,000 pre-arb guess
Brandon League - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Brian Wolfe - $450,000 pre-arb guess
Jesse Carlson - $400,000 pre-arb guess
Shawn Camp - $400,000 pre-arb guess
Davis Romero - $400,000 pre-arb guess
Ricky Romero - $400,000 pre-arb guess
If Janssen is healthy, he should be in the rotation to give Cecil a little more time. Either Romero could also become a factor in the rotation. I would recomend trading both Jason Frasor & Brian Tallet, freeing up roughly $2.5M.
Total estimated comitted payroll for 2009: $76.69M for 38 players. This leaves JP (or whoever is in charge) about $25M to play with.
Needs: A mashing DH and 1, maybe 2, mid-rotation starters. A SS would also be nice.
If Overbay gets dealt, which is the only way to make room in the line-up for a DH type, it would free up another $7M. My vote: If his option is declined in NY, a 2yr-$20M deal for Carlos Delgado. He can still hit 30HR a season, and he's my favourite player of all time. That is unlikely, as he is becoming a bargain for the Mets for next season. With Thome's 2009 option vesting the other night, there goes my second choice. That leaves Jason Giambi. I wouldn't have a problem with him at all, as long as he is back on the juice. The Jays could certainly use his 30HR and high OBP. A 2yr-$18M deal would be swell, with the second year being a vesting option based on plate appearances. So, in essence, I am switching Overbay;s $7M for 2009 & 2010 with Giambi's $9M for 2009 & maybe 2010 (Cooper could be ready in 2010 pretty easily).
So with $23Mish to play with pitching, let's look at a couple possibilties. Let's assume that Frasor & Tallet aren't back, freeing up another $2.5M as well. Tallet is the 4th best lefty in the pen and Frasor sucks donkey cock. Derek Lowe would be iddeal aquisition. I would offer a 3yr-$36M contract. That should be enough, as I doubt anyone else will toss more than $10M per season at him. If Janssen is healthy, that is all I would add from the 2nd or 3rd starter bin. I might look at Paul Byrd for 1yr-$7M to put up some decent innings. So adding another $19M to the payroll, leaving about $6M.
A shortstop would be swell. JJ Hardy could be on the block, and the Jays should make a huge effort at getting him. He will make somewhere around $5M next year in arbitration, but I would recomend a long-term deal apon trading for him. Throw any of Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, John Tolisano, Scott Campbell, Brett Cecil, or any of the other pitching prospects we have. The Brewers could very well go with Alcides Escobar next year and trade Hardy away. They could also trade Fielder away, if they think they need a pitcher like Matt Cain. That could move Matt Gamel to 1B, and create a need for a 3B of the future. Enter Kevin Ahrens, or David Cooper if Gamel can stick at 3B. Justin Jaskson is a superb athlete, he is an attractive piece. Tolisiano & Campbell are both good bats with shaky defense at 2B, but could be quick rises through the system as high contact bats. Arms like Cecil, Mills, Dials, and many others are high-upside kids who I would hate to see go. But, for a player like Hardy, I would trade any 2 pitchers AA or lower and any 2 hitters AA or lower. The Jays match up really well with Milwaukee's long-term needs.
So, The 2009 Blue Jays:
1. Alex Rios - RF
2. Aaron Hill - 2B
3. Vernon Wells - CF
4. Jason Giambi - DH
5. Adam Lind - 1B
6. JJ Hardy - SS
7. Travis Snider- LF
8. Scott Rolen - 3B
9. Rod Barajas - C
C - Brian Jeroloman
IF - John MacDonald
IF/OF - Jose Bautista
IF/OF - Joe Inglett
SP1 - Roy Halladay
SP2 - Derek Lowe
SP3 - Jesse Litsch
SP4 - Paul Byrd
SP5 - Davis Purcey
Closer: BJ Ryan
Set-Up: Scott Downs
RP1: Jesse Carlson
RP2: Brandon League
RP3: Jeremy Accardo
RP4: Casey Janssen
RP5: Brian Wolfe until McGowan is back
Out:
AJ Burnett
Lyle Overbay
Jason Frasor
Brian Tallet
Marco Scutaro
Brett Cecil
Brad Mills
Kevin Ahrens
Scott Campbell
In:
Jason Giambi
JJ Hardy
Derek Lowe
Paul Byrd
Not bad. I think that team could compete with Boston, Tampa, and New York. I would feel comfortable with that team.
Monday, September 22, 2008
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