Crunching Some Early Numbers

Looking at the roster and non-roster names in the fold for jobs this season, I am wondering a few things to myself.

1. What role does Jose Bautista serve and why the fuck did the Jays not non-tender his silly ass?

2. Where are all these relievers going to fit?

A couple quick answers that I have come up with:

Bautista is worthless if Millar makes the team because Millar takes the at-bats against lefties and Inglett is a better hitter (although he has very little power).

There are too many relievers for the 7 spots. The Jays need to drop at least 2 of these guys.

So let us crunch the roster.

The starting catcher is Rod Barajas, with a bunch of guys fighting it our for the back-up job. The most likely is Mike Barrett, MLB vet who used to be a good offensive catcher. I hope Jeroloman is the back-up. His defense and patience could be more beneficial than Barrett's offense.

The 1B is Overbay.

At 2B will be a hopefully healthy Aaron Hill.

Scott Rolen (if healthy) will be the 3B.

Marco Scutaro & John McDonald are the shortstops.

The OF will consist of Alex Rios & Vernon Wells. It will also likely include Travis Snider, with Adam Lind at DH.

If the Jays go with 12 pitchers, that leaves 4 bench spots available. 1 will go to the back-up catcher and 1 to the other SS. That leaves 2 spots for Kevin Millar, Jose Bautista, Joe Inglett, Jason Lane, Brandon Fahey, Buck Coates, and maybe Russ Adams.

The 2 in the lead are Inglett & Bautista (mostly based on last season). I would want Millar on the team, as he provides a better all-around hitter if Snider faulters. But as we saw last year with the Stewart vs Johnson decision, maybe the better platoon option is the right choice. That would mean Bautista.

I would actually prefer an 11 pitcher staff, but that gets tricky due to the lack of starting pitching depth with guaranteed stamina.

So let's break down the options for arms.

Halladay & Litsch are the locks for the rotation. Assuming that B.J. Ryan, Downs, Carlson, Tallet, Frasor, Camp, and League are bullpen guys. That is 7 guys right there, so it will be really hard to penetrate this staff in the spring. I would like to see Frasor (I like the guy as a pitcher, but the team has no confidence in him and he could fetch something decent) and Tallet get dealt, but I'm not making any deals.

With 3 available rotation spots, the arms I see in the race are David Purcey, Casey Janssen, Scott Richmond, Brian Wolfe, Matt Clement, Brett Cecil, Mike Maroth, Brian Burres, and Ken Takahashi. One of these spots is not permenant, as McGowan will be back after a couple months. I see Purcey, Richmond, and Clement making the staff (based on the idea that Janssen will need a bit of recovery time in AAA).

If some deals can be swung to get down to 11 pitchers, that would allow the Jays to carry Millar and Bautista, making them better against the big lefties in the division.

This is going to be an exciting spring.