Playoff Preview: Phillies vs. Rockies

Well, it's October, which means it is fucking time for some baseball.

Unfortunately, my Blue Jays sucked again this season, but I am a firm lover of Albert Pujols and still have a little love for Carpenter. So, I am firmly behind the St. Louis Cardinals.

But, the first series I am previewing is the first game on the slate today.

Starting Pitching

The Phillies have the edge here, with 2008 Cy winner Cliff Lee and awesome Cole Hamels, both lefties, facing off against a lefty-heavy line-up.

Game 1 features Cliff Lee vs Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has become a legit force atop the Rockies rotation, but facing a line-up as lefty heavy and deangerous as the Phillies possess will be a really tough challenge.

Game 2 will pit Cole Hamels against Aaron Cook. I see a clear advantage for the Phillies.

Game 3 will have Jason Hammel vs an un-named starter. Could be Pedro, Blanton, or Happ.

Game 4 will have Jason Marquis vs one of the above names.

The Phillies have better depth and better arms. The Rockies will need performances above the talent level if they are going out-pitch the Phillies.


Offense

Both teams feature a lefty heavy line-up, with the Phillies possessing more power.

Positionally:

Catcher
Carlos Ruiz vs Yorvit Torrealba. The Phillies probably have a slight defensive advantage, which is made up for by Torralba's slightly better defense.

First Base
Ryan Howard vs Todd Helton. Raw power vs pure hitter. Howard is so dangerous, and was an RsBI mchine all season. The edge goes to Howard, although Helton is an outstanding hitter in his own right. Howard is a butcher in the field, which lowers his edge only slightly.

Second Base
Chase Utley vs Clint Barmes. Clear advantage for the Phillies here, as Utley is an outstanding ballplayer. Barmes is solid, but is nowhere near the talent Utley is. Utley is also a gold-glove caliber defender. Eric Young Jr. could see some time at 2B is Barmes struggles even a little.

Third Base
Pedro Feliz vs Garrett Atkins/Ian Stewart. Feliz is outstanding defensively, and Atkins (who will likely play against lefties) is a bit of a butcher. Ian Stewart, when playing, is a really good 3B himself. Offensively, I give the edge to the Rockies duo. Feliz has some power, but I feel Stewart is a better hitter and Atkins is probably an equal with the stick.

Short Stop
Jimmy Rollins vs Troy Tulowitzki. I have to give the edge to the Rockies here, as Tulo has been outstanding this season. Rollins has been disappointing this season, but still has the ability to change the game with his rare combination of power and speed. Tulo is probably the better defender as well, although both are good defenders.

Left Field
Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Gonzalez/Ryan Spilborghs. Advantage Phillies. Ibanez has been outstanding this season and Gonzalez is an unproven rookie with some question marks. I would expect Spilborghs to play against liefties, but Gonzo is playing game 1. A huge edge defensively to the Rockies, which helps close the gap.

Centre Field
Shane Victorino vs Dexter Fowler. Both are switch hitters with good speed and good defense. Victorino's track record gives him the edge over the rookie, but Fowler has more speed, which could give the Phillies catcher a headache.

Right Field
Jayson Werth vs Brad Hawpe. I love Jayson Werth, I always have. He had a monster season, but Hawpe is no sloutch himself. Both have great arms in RF, but Werth is the better defender overall. I give the edge to Werth, both offensively and defensively in part because of the lefties Hawpe will face.

Bench
I love the Rockies bench. It has such a nice mix up players. Chris Ianetta is a fine hitter behind the dish, Jason Giambi has been a beast off the bench since signing with the Rockies, Seth Smith is a really solid young player, and Eric Young Jr. brings a tremendous asset with his speed. Add in Ryan Spilborghs and either Ian Stewart or Garrett Atkins and you have the makings of a very balanced and productive bench.

The Phillies have a pretty nice bench themselves. Paul Bako is a veteran with tonnes of experience, Miguels Cairo is a very versitile defender with a lot of experiance in the playoffs, Greg Dobbs is a nice hitter who can pinch hit early in the game and start over Feliz if needed at 3B, Ben Francisco was a nice mid-season pick-up and is a solid OF, and Matt Stairs brings serious power off the bench.

The edge goes to the Rockies, who just have a better bench. Period.

Bullpen
With the well documented struggles of Brad Lidge, the edge would seemingly go to the Rockies. I never discount experience in the playoffs, and in no place would I rather have it than in the bullpen. Lidge and company were great in the 2008 playoffs and there is verly little doubt they can repeat their success. Add in Brett Myers now in the bullpen and the Phillies have a nice colleciton of arms. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, and Chad Durbin are all very good right handed relievers. Scott Eyre is the only true lefty reliever out of the bullpen, but could be aided by Rookie of the Year contending starter J.A. Happ and rookie Antonio Bastardo in the earlier innings. Kyle Kendrick and either Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez make excellent long-men if needed.

The Rockies have a really good bullpen themselves. Huston Street was great this season and has re-established himself in Colorado. Mid-season acquisition Rafael Betencourt is a solid 8th inning option. Matt Belisle, Matt Daley, and Jose Contrares make up the righties in the bullpen. Joe Biemel and Franklin Morales will be the lefties coming out of the bullpen.

The advantage has to go to the experience of the Phillies. Neither team has a reliable second lefty out of the bullpen, so big spots could come down to a Ryan Howard vs Franklin Morales match-up.


Verdict:
I have to go with the Phillies in this series, but it won't be easy. The J-Factor is a clear advantage to the Phillies as well, as both Jayson Werth and Matt Stairs are ex-Blue Jays. That doesn't factor into my decision, but I can't overlook it.

PHILLIES IN 4.