Holy Panda Rape!

Holy Panda Rape!

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Playoff Preview: Red Sox vs Angels

Pitching

Starting Pitching
Game 1:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey. I like this match-up, especially in Los Angeles. This is too even to call when just looking at the starters. Should be a fantastic game.
Game 2:
Josh Beckett vs Jered Weaver. Even dealing with injuries all season, you have to like Beckett in the playoffs. He has been stellar in October for most of his career. Weaver is a really good pitcher, but not on Beckett's level.
Game 3:
Clay Buchholz vs Scott Kazmir. This should be interting. Buchholz has been inconsistant and Kazmir has been really shakey this season. I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one.
Game 4:
Daisuke Matsusaka vs Joe Saunders. I don't like the back-to-back lefties starting for LA, especially with the monster at Fenway. I think it will be a big mistake using lefties in both Fenway games.
Game 5:
Jon Lester vs John Lackey.

Bullpen
From the right side, Jon Papelbon will close out games, while Dan Bard, Takashi Saito, and Ramon Ramirez will help bridge the gap. Lefties Billy Wagner and Hideki Okajima will have the taks of retiring Bobby Abreu and turning around Kenry Morales. Paul Byrd is available for a long relief role.

Lefty Brian Fuentes is the closer, and will be helped by Darren Oliver from the left side, who will have the task of putting away J.D. Drew and David Ortiz. The right-handers are Kevin Jepson, Jason Bulger, Matt Palmer (who will be the long-man), and starter Erivn Santana. The test will be Santana, who has amazing stuff, but has never been in high leverage relief situations before.

I have to give the edge to the Red Sox, as the top righty arms for the Angels (Bulger and Jepson) have had some duribility questions recently and may not be 100%. Even if they were, the depth in Boston's bullpen is outstanding.

Positionally:

Catcher
Victor Martinez vs Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis. V-Mart was probably the best mid-season pick-up in the AL, and has given the Red Sox a strength at a position that was a weakness. Napoli and Mathis form a very nice tandem, with Napoli being kind of an Adam Dunn lite, with the power and walks. Mathis is a fantastic defensive catcher, and when he is in the running game should be limited.

First Base
Kevin Youkilis/Casey Kotchman vs Kenry Morales. When Youk is playing 1B, the Sox probably have the edge, but not by much. Morales has been an MVP candidate this season and has really stepped up and replaced Mark Teixeira. When Youk plays 3B, the Angels have a big advantage. Kotchman is a very good glove man.

Second Base
Dustin Pedroia vs Howie Kendrick/Maicer Izturis. Edge to the Sox either way. Kendrick has been pretty bad with the bat this season and has never been anything special with the glove, so Izturis could use his stellar defense to take starts away from Kendrick.

Third Base
Mike Lowell/Kevin Youkilis vs Chone Figgins. I love Figgins. Huge man-crush. But, if Youk is starting at 3B, they have the edge. If Lowell starts at 3B, which I don't think he should, than the Angels have a nice advantage. Lowell always seems to be sore and is not half the fielder he was even 2 seasons ago.

Short Stop
Alex Gonzalez vs Erick Aybar. Gonzalez is probably the better fielder, but Aybar is pretty dangerous offensive player with his speed and contact ability. I would have to give the edge to the Angels.

Left Field
Jason Bay vs Juan Rivera. Advantage Red Sox. Both are below average in the field, but Bay is the better hitter.

Centre Field
Jacoby Ellsbury vs Torii Hunter. This one is really close, as they are such different players. Both are excellent fielders, but do it in different ways. Ellsbury uses his speed to trakc down flies, while Hunter seems to glide after getting fantistic reads off the bat. Offensively, Hunter is a power hitter, while Ellsbury is a singles/gap hitter who steals a bunch of bases. Total package, I have to go with Hunter.

Right Field
J.D. Drew vs Bobby Abreu. Both are actually pretty similar, being patient hitters with mediocre defense. Abreu has always been awalk machine and I have always thought he was underrated. I have to give the edge to the Angels.

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz vs Vladimir Guerrero. 5 years ago, this is a fantastic match-up between 2 of the games very best hitters. Vlad is still a good hitter, but his power has been sapped a bit and he can no longer play the field due to injuries. Ortiz started brutally this season, but has been solid since lighting up Brett Cecil. Tough choice, and I could flip flop on this but I like Ortiz a little more, only because it is the playoffs.

Bench
Jason Varitek will back-up V-Mart, won't see anything more than inning or 2 and only if V-Mart gets pinch ran for. Casey Kotchman should get a couple starts, and is a solid hitter and a great fielder. Jed Lowrie may get a start a SS, but should see a little time regardless as he is a better hitter (slightly) than Gonzalez. Brian Anderson and Joey Gathright will be the back-up OF and pinch runners. Anderson is a great fielder, and should see some defensive time and maybe a start against a lefty in RF. Gathright is their Dave Roberts and will probably be limited to pinch running and defensive replacement status.

Bobby Wilson is here for moral support and for emergancies late in games after both other catchers have been used. Maicer Izturis is a solid middle infield option and should see a couple starts at 2B. Robb Quinlann is good against lefties and can play 3B, 1B, and the corner OF. Gary Matthews Jr. is a good defender and could be used late in close games in LF for Rivera. Reggie Willits is most likely only here to pinch run.

I give the bench advantage to the Red Sox.

Verdict:
I have to say that I think the Red Sox will out-pitch the Angels and take the series in 5 games.

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