Off-Season Preview: THE Toronto Blue Jays

So, after a pretty awesome 1st round of playoffs, I have decided to use some free time previously alloted to watching kick-ass playoff baseball to go over some numbers for the AL East and their payroll situations headin into the offseason.

I have been keeping an excel spreadsheet of the AL East teams' payroll commitments for about 3 season now, and it come in very handy when I need to find out how many years a certain player has left on his deal, or when he hits arbitration. I use Cots Baseball Contracts like a bible. Now, they have also put spreadsheets together for every team, giving me even more detail.

So, onto the outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Payroll for the 2009 season was between $75M and $80M. Including arbitration raises (which I have estimated, probably generously, in the players favour), I have the payroll at around $80M with the players on board. The 2008 payroll was almost $100M and there have been reports and thoughts that the payroll could reach as high as about $120M if there was a clear direction for how it was used.

I think the Jays will probably stick to about a $75M limit, and consider this season more of a rebuilding year.

To get down to that number, a few moves must be made. Trading Halladay drops the estimated payroll to about $65M. Non-tendering Jose Bautista eliminates another $3M. And if Brian Tallet or Jeremy Accardo are dealt, that is another estimated $2M. And Lyle Overbay's $7M could be traded as well. As could Edwin Encarnacion's $4.75M.

All of that is unlikely though, so let's look at the breakdown.

Pitchers:
Starters:
Roy Halladay - $15.75M
Shaun Marcum - Estimated $1.5M
Ricky Romero - Estimated $450,000
Brett Cecil - Estimated $450,000
Marc Rzepczynski - Estimated $450,000
David Purcey - Estimated $450,000
Scott Richmond - Estimated $450,000
Fabio Castro - Estimated $400,000
INJURED:
Jesse Litsch - Estimated $450,000
Dustin McGowan - Estimated $600,000

Relievers:
Scott Downs - $4M
Jason Frasor - Estimated $2.5M
Brian Tallet - Estimated 1.75M
Jeremy Accard0 - Estimated $1.5M
Shawn Camp - Estimated $1.25M
Brandon League - Estimated $1.25M
Casey Janssen - Estimated $450,000
Brian Wolfe - Estimated $450,000
Josh Roenicke - Estimated $450,000
Dirk Hayhurst - Estimated $450,000
Jesse Carlson - Estimated $450,000
DEAD MONEY:
B.J. Ryan - $10M

The pitching staff has about $40M commited to it for 2010. The Jays could probably trade 2 starters and have comfortable depth remaining. If Tallet is a starting candidate, than he is another trade candidate. With plenty of bullpen depth, some of the more expensive guys should be shopped. Downs and Accardo are both guys I expect to get offered around.

If all the pitchers stay internal (not a terrible idea during a rebuild), this is how the team could look minus Tallet, Downs, and Accardo (which would save about $7M).

SP
1. Halladay
2. Romero
3. Marcum
4. Rzep
5. Cecil/Purcey/Richmond
Bullpen
CL. Frasor
LHP. Carlson
LHP. Cecil/Castro/Purcey
RHP. Camp
RHP. League
RHP. Janssen
RHP. Roenicke/Hayhurst/Richmond/Wolfe

Position Players

With so many free agents, a lot of the positon players are yet to be determined.

C - Raul Chavez and J.P. Arencibia are the two option in house. Chavez is elligible for arbitration (I think. I can't get a legit answer anywhere) and is not an ideal starter on even the worst teams, while Arencibia is Barajas lite. I expect at least 1 catcher to be signed.

1B - Lyle Overbay ($7M) is somewho I imagine the Jays would try and trade. He plays great defense and hits righties very well, but is overpayed and is no longer an everyday player due to his struggles against lefties. There are few teams that would be willing to acquire all of Overbay, but that will be a focus for Anthopoulos in my eyes.

If Overbay is traded, that allows to Jays some flexibility. They could try Adam Lind (a 1B in college) or Randy Ruiz (a DH who has played 1B in the minors) or even try Brian Dopirak (former top prospect who has mashed in AA/AAA the last 2 seasons).

2B - Aaron Hill ($4M in 2010). Joe Inglett (Estimated league minimum in 2010) is an option for the utility role.

3B - Edwin Encarnacion ($4.75M). In an ideal world, Encarnacion is dealt away. He is just not a good player. He is a little above average in his career with the bat, but his defense is kind of terrible. With a young staff of pitchers, you need a good defense and as we all saw with Scott Rolen, a good defender is pretty neccessary. If dealt, there are few in house options to replace him. Jose Bautista (Estimated $3M in 2010) could be a candidate, but his defense isn't great and a non-tender candidate himself.

SS - No in house options.

OF - Vernon Wells ($16M+ in 2010) is an unmovable contract, and the Jays will have to hope for a turnaround closer to his previous numbers. Adam Lind and Travis Snider (estimated league minimum in 2010) are possibilities for the corners, but both are below average defenders in that situation. Snider seems to be an average fielder, while Lind is pretty terrible. In house OF Buck Coats is a candidtate for 4th/5th OF.

In a perfect world, Overbay and Encarnacion are traded and Bautista is non-tendered, which would shed $14M and give the team some flexibility to go out and overpay for a couple hitters to beef up the line-up this season and in the future.

This could be an exciting off-season for Jays fans, as there could be mass changes to the team on the field and off.

I look forward to an exciting off-season.