Starting Pitching
Game 1:
C.C. Sabathia vs Brian Duensing. With the use of hindsight, and common sense, the Yankees have the advantage. They won the game pretty easily and while Duensing was solid, Sabathia was very good.
Game 2:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. This should be a really good match-up, as they are pretty evenly matched when lookig at their 2009 numbers. I think Burnett will be brilliant and the Yankees should take this one.
Game 3:
Andy Pettitte vs Carl Pavano. I like the Twins in this match-up. I have a feeling about Pavano, and I think he will do just enough to get the win and give the Twins a little hope.
Game 4:
C.C. Sabathia vs Scott Baker. I want to go the Twins here, as I love when 1 game decides the series, but I cannot see the Twins being able to do enough off of Sabathia.
Game 5:
A.J. Burnett vs Nick Blackburn. If it gets this far, which I predict it won't, the Yankees are fucked. With Burnett's track record, if he is brilliant in game 2, he could be pretty bad in game 5 with all of the pressure on him. I hate the decision to put Burnett in this spot and not Pettitte.
Positionally:
Catcher
Jorge Posada vs Joe Mauer. This one is easy. Mauer is the best player in the American League. I truly believe that. Posada will sit with Burnett on the mound, making this even more one-sided offensively. Mauer is also one of the best defensive catchers in baseball as well.
First Base
Mark Teixeira vs Michael Cuddyer. The loss of Justin Morneau really hurts here, where he matches up with Teixeria pretty evenly. As good as Cuddyer has been down the stretch, he is not in Teixeira's league. Being a regular OF, he may have defensive questions as well, whereas Teixeira is one the best in baseball.
Second Base
Robinson Cano vs Nick Punto. Another no brainer. Cano is a very good player on both sides, and his offense is top 5 in baseball at his position. Punto is a defensive whiz with little bat. Clear edge to the Yankees.
Third Base
Alex Rodriguez vs Matt Tolbert. A-Rod is one of the greatest players in history and Matt Tolbert is a bench player. Tolbert is starting in place of injured Joe Crede, and has een pretty hot lately. But, that won't make the gap between the two any less wide. Another clear edge to the Yanks.
Short Stop
Derek Jeter vs Orlando Cabrera. This one is close than I would like to admit, as I am a pretty huge Jeter mark. O-Cab's defense is better, regardless of what Jeet's gold gloves have to say. The offense is a fair bit apart though, as Jeter is one the best hitters ever at SS and is still top 5-10 in baseball.
Left Field
Johnny Damon vs Delmon Young. Damon is still a fine player and both parks play really well for a lefty pull hitter. Defensively, Damon can still run down fly balls, but his arm has always been really week. In a way, Delmon is the anti-Damon, as he is a pure power hitting righty with a cannon for arm but a pea for a brain. He constantly misses cut-off men and can cost his team bases. I love Young's bat, but his raw power hasn't really shown itself in the Major Leagues yet. I give the edge, ever so slightly, to the fundamentally sound Johnny Damon.
Centre Field
Melky Cabrera vs Denard Span. As clutch as Melky has been this year, coming up with big hits on a few occasions, he is as overrated as it gets. His defense is not as good as some would lead you to believe, although his arm is pretty incredible. Denard Span is a great lead-off hitter, with patience and a good ability to get the head of the bat on the ball. His speed is also a pretty big advantage over Cabrera. Advantage Twins.
Right Field
Nick Swisher vs Jason Kubel. This is the closest battle, as both have a lot of power and pretty good batting eyes. Kubel is a better hitter for average, while Swish is tremendous at getting on-base by any means neccessary. Defensively, Swish probably has the edge, but not by too much.
Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui vs Brendan Harris. Matsui is clearly better, as he was one of the DH's in the American League this season. End of discussion.
Bench
Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli are both on the roster, providing options for pinch running late in close games. Jerry Hairston Jr. and Eric Hinske were great mid-season pick-ups as both are very versitile and are pretty good hitters. Brett Gardner has blazing speed and should be a pest late in games pinch running and is a fine defensive CF.
Jose Morales and Mike Redmond both made the roster, as to allow Mauer to DH if they feel like going that route. Morales is a pretty decent hitter, while Redmond is a good defensive back-stop. Alexi Casilla is a solid defensive middle infielder and has a lot of speed for pinch running. Carlos Gomez is a terrific CF and has blazing speed, which should be available for pinch running.
I have to give the edge to the Yanks in bench depth and productivity. They have starters on the bench who are actually better than a couple of the Twins starters (Eric Hinske > Brendan Harris, Hairston Jr. > Nick Punto)
Bullpen
With only 3 starters needed, the Yanks are able to move Joba to the pen, which gives them 3 shut down righties. Rivera, Hughes, Joba, and David Robertson are all very effective righties. Marte and Coke bring it from the left side and will have the difficult task of shutting down Joe Mauer late in games. Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves are there for length.
The Twins bullpen is a different story. Joe Nathan is incredible, but he is only one man. He will have to be bridged by righties Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and Bobby Keppel. Lefties Ron Mahay, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Mijares will have their hands full with Cano, Matsui, and switch hitters Swisher, Teixeira, and Posada.
I have to give the edge, by quite a margin, to the Yankees.
Verdict:
Yankees in 4 is my first choice. If there is a game 5, I go with the Twins.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
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